50nl: AQ river decision

[crunchi]

Villain is 31/10 over 80 hands, no other reads.

Pre-flop was an accident.

I think flop and turn play was standard value bets.

On the river I put villain on Ax, Tx or busted draw so i decided to check rather than bet and planned to call a small-mid sized bet. Once he bets big i think we can narrow his range down to Tx or busted draws, however i'm not sure how often he has the draw here, so i fold. Thoughts?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $55.40
BB: $50.70
UTG: $37.50
BTN: $175.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($2) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $4.50

River: ($15.50) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $13.50</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $29.00 ($0.75 Rake)

[Micro Donk]

his number of busted draws outnumber his number of Tx hands...

[Nick Royale]

I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f.

[brandysbich]

All his draws missed, the only hands that make sense are 10J,109,108cc . I really dont think someone is staying in here with a naked 10.

I actually like the way you played it - the fold. Checking here to induce from busted draws is the only way you might get any more value out of them. Never fold here tho, if he has a 10 pay him off and move on

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i typo'd, Ax is supposed to be Qx. But i don't think he will bet a Q on the river very often. Its just a gut feeling i guess.

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
his number of busted draws outnumber his number of Tx hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

really? what range are you giving villain?

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
All his draws missed, the only hands that make sense are 10J,109,108cc . I really dont think someone is staying in here with a naked 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured he could get to the river with almost any T really.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
his number of busted draws outnumber his number of Tx hands...

[/ QUOTE ]
This is probably true, there's tons of xxcc and KJ/J9 combos. But while he'll bet the river 100% with Tx he won't always bluff with a draw.

[brandysbich]

Its really unlikely you betting strong into 2 players on the turn without having a naked ten beat

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i typo'd, Ax is supposed to be Qx. But i don't think he will bet a Q on the river very often. Its just a gut feeling i guess.

[/ QUOTE ]
He'll probably often check Qx, that's why I'm betting the river so he'll pay me off. If you check it's to induce a bluff from his busted draws and sometimes a bet from Qx.

If you think he'll fold Qx if you bet then c/f becomes an option but I don't think this guy will.

[Nick Royale]

Also, raise preflop.

[brandysbich]

"If you think he'll fold Qx if you bet then c/f becomes an option but I don't think this guy will."

Did you mean if he thought he wouldve folded a weaker Q before the river? if not how is c/f all of a sudden an option?

Also in the OP he said pre was a misclick, but its def a raise pre.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
"If you think he'll fold Qx if you bet then c/f becomes an option but I don't think this guy will."

Did you mean if he thought he wouldve folded a weaker Q before the river? if not how is c/f all of a sudden an option?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I meant if he though he'll fold Qx on the river. I don't expect him to ever fold Qx before the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Also in the OP he said pre was a misclick, but its def a raise pre.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right, I missed that.

[brandysbich]

I'm still not getting why you saying c/f is an option if villain with fold a weaker Q if we bet. I mean I can understand b/f and c/c but in your first reply to this post you said never c/f.

Typo?

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i typo'd, Ax is supposed to be Qx. But i don't think he will bet a Q on the river very often. Its just a gut feeling i guess.

[/ QUOTE ]
He'll probably often check Qx, that's why I'm betting the river so he'll pay me off. If you check it's to induce a bluff from his busted draws and sometimes a bet from Qx.

If you think he'll fold Qx if you bet then c/f becomes an option but I don't think this guy will.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree this guy will probably call with a Q on the river, however i dont get how betting is +ev.

Whenever im confused i like to look at extreme examples, so bear with me. Lets assume that on the river villain can have any T any Q and a bunch of busted draws. If we bet he will always fold busted draws call with Qx and raise with Tx. In this example betting would be 0 ev right?

So in my hand when you say b/f river what you are basically saying is that we are ahead &gt;50% of the time, hence villain is more likely to have AND call with Qx than Tx, right?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still not getting why you saying c/f is an option if villain with fold a weaker Q if we bet. I mean I can understand b/f and c/c but in your first reply to this post you said never c/f.

Typo?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would usually never c/f here. I would b/f, expecting to get paid off by Qx if villain's passive. Against a passive villain check/calling is bad because he'll rarely bluff or v-bet worse.

If villain's tricky/bluffy then check/calling becomes better because he'll often bluff his missed draws on the river and if we bet we might get bluffraised off the best hand.

That's why I said I either b/f or c/c.

BUT, if villain is passive and tight were not likely to get paid off by Qx nor likely getting bluffed if we check. In this case check/folding is best because none of the other option is +ev.


I hope I expressed myself clear. But again I want to say I don't c/f in this spot often at all and if those stats is the only read I have on villain I won't. I think b/f is best.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Whenever im confused i like to look at extreme examples, so bear with me. Lets assume that on the river villain can have any T any Q and a bunch of busted draws. If we bet he will always fold busted draws call with Qx and raise with Tx. In this example betting would be 0 ev right? So in my hand when you say b/f river what you are basically saying is that we are ahead &gt;50% of the time, hence villain is more likely to have AND call with Qx than Tx, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
The existing pot makes it +ev. You don't need to be ahead 50% for betting to be +ev.

It's also important to weight his hands, Qx is more likely on the river because he's more likely to have folded Tx on previous streets.


What I'm saying is that he's more likely to call with Qx than he is to bluff a busted draw if we check or v-bet a worse hand. Assuming he won't ever bluffraise the river if we bet.

[brandysbich]

I understood the c/c and b/f reasoning and I guess i now understand your c/f reasoning but you've already stated that you b/f against a passive villain which is why I got thrown off. I really doubt a passive tight villain gets to the river without SC type 10 with clubs in which case I cry.

[Waingro]

Funny, when I raise pf I usually go bet/bet/bet, because on the river nobody ever really bluffs their busted draws or valuebets their crappy one pair hands. Or they bet something pointless like 15% of the pot.

However, in limped pots I usually check the river, because the fish love playing limped pots because the pot is relatively small so when I check the river they make a proper bluff at the end and valuebets their crappy one pair hands. I have no idea if this is something anybody else have observed or if it is only in my own mind. I like a check/call on the river. As played I call this river.