how's my equity now?

[Chicago Twister]

Opponent is mostly unknown, but I'm sitting here 30 hands and haven't found any huge exploitable leaks yet, so he must not be a total drooler.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $73.90
BB: $46.50
UTG: $34.00
MP: $71.20
CO: $57.00
Hero (BTN): $54.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $2.50

Flop: ($6.75) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $12.00</font>, Hero calls $7.50

Turn: ($30.75) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $21.00</font>

Am I ahead or behind? If I push I'm 105% sure he will not fold.

[mad1]

i say push and find out, then you have a read on him for future hands. but i'm just a steaming donk

[Stalrock]

crai turn.

[sweetwater]

[ QUOTE ]
crai turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

how? hero has position here

[vixticator]

A lot of draws out there, don't think this is wa/wb situation. Ugh. You know he's going to bet turn when you call flop raise. So, I'd consider folding the flop. If I decide to get to turn I push any bet he throws out there. Could be flush draw, weaker Jack. Or, you could be crushed. Maybe even Queens where you are in slightly better shape. Only one way to find out, yeah?

[Dallas Dru]

you are in a hard potion here. if i was the villain i would be holding the nut or close to it flush draw because i want to get my money in with those odds.

its a hard spot,
its either push or fold in that spot you cant let him draw for cheep for 5 street.

also take in account baluga's theorem. which would mean that you are not good in this situation

[Nick Royale]

It's push or fold, I push.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
also take in account baluga's theorem. which would mean that you are not good in this situation

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not baluga. If he calls the flop and c/r the turn it would be.

[Dallas Dru]

yeah you are right.... i was just thinking he did that. thanks for the correction

[Nick C]

I'm not ecstatic about the situation, but I push, expecting to see 77/22 a lot of the time, but hoping I see a worse jack or a hand like JdTd that misses on the river often enough.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not ecstatic about the situation, but I push, expecting to see 55/22 a lot of the time, but hoping I see a worse jack or a hand like JdTd that misses on the river often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp

Yes I just love to nitpick /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not ecstatic about the situation, but I push, expecting to see 55/22 a lot of the time, but hoping I see a worse jack or a hand like JdTd that misses on the river often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp

Yes I just love to nitpick /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, that's what I meant. (However, losing to 77 would be much more frustrating than losing to 55.)

[mertzo]

Royale its close right? Id fold

[Chicago Twister]

Well, I pushed and he flipped over QQ which of course beats TPTK.

Fortunately for me, the turn was actually the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and not the 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, giving me Aces up. I was more interested in his range than what I should do in that case though -- I called with a fist pump and I think its not close.

[bluffbetter]

I'd fold to the flop raise here against a tight player, especially after the 6BB preflop raise.