50NL: I CRAI bluff turn

[Brian O'Nolan]

Wasn't playing with a HUD this session, but villain seemed standard taggish, had made some plays at me. Is this reasonable sometimes or just spew?


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.14
UTG+1: $71.59
Hero: $56.27
Button: $62.04
SB: $34.33
BB: $50.04

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $8</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($20.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $9.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $46.27</font>

[DaycareInferno]

i'd say just change tables if this guy is floating you enough that this is good.

[xPeru]

I don't like this because I think you need a better story. CRAI with air is good, but the conditions need to be right: First, you need to sell a story ...

a. Are there a wide range of hands that you are confident villain hasn't got, which he is scared of? This means a board which fits several hands (str8 draws, sets, 2 pr, huge combo draws etc).

b. Have your bets so far been consistent with you having several of these hands? If villain has to put you on only a few hands out of your range in order to fold, he will often have enough equity to call.

c. Can villain can lay down his TPTK/overpair type hands? You really need to know this from seeing it!

[Brian O'Nolan]

Villain's flop raise/turn bet combo is weak sauce. He is FOS here most of the time. Trips or better are a fairly small part of his range. I am not real worried about him folding a 7 or 88-TT here as those hands are an even smaller part of his range- FWIW I think he can fold something like 88 here, maybe half the time.

[mookboi]

Um... What do you mean those hands are small part of his range?

He flat called PF. If he's TAG as you say, or as you speculate, I think those hands are pretty much his range. I'd say 55-TT, maybe something like KQs and JTs, that kinda crap, a lot of SCs with a 7 in it, depending on how loose he is preflop as far as cold calling goes.

I don't like your CRAI because you are basically representing having a 3, or an overpair. Not a lot of hands with a 3 in it are raising this preflop, and neither is 56. So you are basically saying to me with your CRAI turn that you have on overpair and took the stack-a-donk line by smoothcalling flop raise &amp; CRAI turn. Problem with this line is that the reason y ou take it is basically to commit villain on turn here, where they are calling most of the time, even though they suspect they are beat quite often.

Which is exactly the case here. There's $66 in pot, and he has to call $36ish. I think he shows up with an overpair here, something like 88 as you said a lot, and I think he's not gonna be happy about it, but a lot of people will call here with that kinda hand. He might even call with A7 or someshit. Basically all yer hoping to fold out is overcards (AQ, KQs, AJ), and scs (87, 76, etc). Might as well open-shove turn. :\

[Brian O'Nolan]

I agree that when he flatcalls pf villain's range is weighted mostly towards small/mid pp's. But his flop raise and turn bet sizing just screams weakness and this is what makes me say his hand range is weighted more towards a no pair hand, after he bets a little under half pot on the turn.

[Nick Royale]

This is just spew.

[hennnerz]

why bother?

its pointless and stupid. you just dont need to.

[Hail Eris]

If you're really intent on doing this, at least pick a spot where you have good equity against his calling range, like when you turn a combo draw, and good FE against his raising range, like when there are draws on the board. Also villain's bet sizing makes this awkward.

If you're getting bluff raised a lot, you can start bluff-3betting with air and value 3betting overpairs here, which prevents you from donating your entire stack when he has a hand, at the very least.