How often does villain CALL this bluff?

[Fwiffo]

Sorry -- my last post was really badly worded. I'm curious about this question, so I'm going to try it again. Please ignore the other thread.

Villain is unknown.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $28.60
BB: $22.55
UTG: $10.00
Hero (MP): $29.80
CO: $48.30
BTN: $10.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, BB calls $2.00

Turn: ($6.10) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $5.00</font>, Hero calls $5.00

River: ($16.10) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.55</font>....

[members_only]

Copy and paste:

I think villain will call this river bet a lot, his line looks a lot like some kind of decent 1-pair hand and the turn and river were about as blank as they could be. I'd imagine he is check-calling the river.

Readless this doesn't look like a great bluff. I don't really like the turn call either.

I'm on the fence between 50-75% and 75%+

[brea]

I think you played the hand way too passively to make the villain warrant folding here. If you lead the flop for pot, then double barrel the turn on 3/4 pot you are more likely to make him think. Without a read on the villain, its even more difficult to get him to fold.

If you asked me if I would fold given the way you played this hand, I would say no. But i'd have check raised the turn 80% of the time.

[chrismystero]

I can see Villain calling the flop just to bluff the turn with two overs. I do this a lot. However, that doesn't mean thats what he is doing...

25-50%

[guitarizt]

I got into some hands like this yesterday where I fired 3 barrels as pfr. They never folded on the third barrel. If they did fold it would be on the turn, which still doesn't happen often if they call me on the flop.

[EMc]

Pls dont clutter the forum. Your last post was fine.

[Quester]

If he folds this more than 48% of the time (assuming he never has a worse hand than ours), then this is +EV.

I think he folds overcards and calls with overpairs, any 9, and 50% with any 8. We're probably around EV neutral, IMO.

[Waingro]

I don´t think this is total spew. There are a bunch of hands villain could have like a sd, fd or some very stubborn AK that missed and gave up on the river that in all likelyhood folds. And we don´t beat many of those if we check behind. Villains line doesn´t exactly ooze of strength. He probably calls you with most one pair hands but he probably also folds some of them some of the time. Without a specific read I would be surprised if he folded an 8.

[Fwiffo]

[ QUOTE ]
Pls dont clutter the forum. Your last post was fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry - I wanted to make sure that people were answering the right question.

[Fwiffo]

[ QUOTE ]
If he folds this more than 48% of the time (assuming he never has a worse hand than ours), then this is +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

You calculated this? How?

[Pokey]

You are betting $14.55 to win $16.10. If villain calls C fraction of the time and folds (1-C) fraction of the time, then your expected value (EV) is:

EV = C*(-14.55) + (1-C)*(+16.10)

If we set the EV equal to zero and solve for C we find that:

-14.55*C + 16.10 - 16.10*C = 0
30.65*C = 16.1
C = 0.525

So villain has to fold 100% - 52.5% = 47.5% of the time for this to be a break-even bet (assuming you always lose when villain calls, which you will). If villain folds more than that you make money with this bluff and if villain folds less than that you lose money with this bluff.

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
You are betting $14.55 to win $16.10. If villain calls C fraction of the time and folds (1-C) fraction of the time, then your expected value (EV) is:

EV = C*(-14.55) + (1-C)*(+16.10)

If we set the EV equal to zero and solve for C we find that:

-14.55*C + 16.10 - 16.10*C = 0
30.65*C = 16.1
C = 0.525

So villain has to fold 100% - 52.5% = 47.5% of the time for this to be a break-even bet (assuming you always lose when villain calls, which you will). If villain folds more than that you make money with this bluff and if villain folds less than that you lose money with this bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
pokey, i'm so glad you're back. &lt;3!!

[Grunch]

Pokey clear PMs.