NL50 straight + flushdraw. Call turn or get it in?

[oli1980]

<font color="blue">Villan was 80/10 on 10 hands. Basically I thought that I have 15 outs which is 32% Equity on one card and with a shove i will get this odds and maybe some -not very much because villan seemed like a bad player- fold equity. So I shoved. Right?</font>

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $108.71
BB: $41.55
UTG: $50.00
Hero (CO): $41.29
BTN: $76.10

Preflop: Hero is dealt Thttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Khttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif 6http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.75</font>, BTN folds, BB calls $6.75

Turn: ($25.75) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $29.54</font>, BB calls $25.04

[raymond715]

i like it, although if you miss on river bb will prob turn over a Qx type hand, tough w/out and reads...the villians betting line is strange, normally that turn bet reeks of weakness though, maybe a sort of blocking bet for a cheap showdown...if you knew he was the type to call you off with crappy top pair here you wouldnt have much FE though but w/o reads who knows

[Jamougha]

Don't shove draws when you don't have much fold equity.

[nutstoyou]

I would have called the turn. After he called your flop raise and then lead out on the turn, I think you had very little if any FE.

[sixhigh]

Oh no, take your basically free card on the turn. First because he's unlikely to go anywhere when you push and second because he will very likely pay you off when you hit.

[oli1980]

uff. I am beginning to lose hope...

[traz]

calling the turn is good

[BrunoThePug]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't shove draws when you don't have much fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This bears repeating. I often cite fold equity when making a decision only to realize that I probably didn't have much.

[brandysbich]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't shove draws when you don't have much fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree with this at all, as the hand was played calling turn is fine, he gave you a super cheap price. But if the hand went you cbet he c/r you on the flop then I get it in on this flop all day every day against any opponent...especially against this one.

The mentality of folding a hand as good as this without enough fold equity is wrong, the only hands u behind on the flop are a set and QJ and its not even by that much. You ahead of everything else, so why would you need fold equity when you ahead on the flop?

[Nick Royale]

Call turn. Villain is loose and won't fold much and you get great direct and implied odds.

If villain hadn't bet the turn I would have taken the free card.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
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Don't shove draws when you don't have much fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree with this at all, as the hand was played calling turn is fine, he gave you a super cheap price. But if the hand went you cbet he c/r you on the flop then I get it in on this flop all day every day against any opponent...especially against this one.

The mentality of folding a hand as good as this without enough fold equity is wrong, the only hands u behind on the flop are a set and QJ and its not even by that much. You ahead of everything else, so why would you need fold equity when you ahead on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting all-in on the flop against this opponent is slightly profitable at best, whereas we probably have some nice implied odds if the money doesn't all go in. So, even on the flop, we need some folding equity for super-aggressive play to be best, unless Villain is a complete LAG-tard who will be hyper-aggressive with bottom pair and doesn't know how to fold it when played back at.

On the turn, our equity just went way down, so the situation has gotten worse for us and, as you say, the call is fine.

[brandysbich]

[ QUOTE ]
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Don't shove draws when you don't have much fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree with this at all, as the hand was played calling turn is fine, he gave you a super cheap price. But if the hand went you cbet he c/r you on the flop then I get it in on this flop all day every day against any opponent...especially against this one.

The mentality of folding a hand as good as this without enough fold equity is wrong, the only hands u behind on the flop are a set and QJ and its not even by that much. You ahead of everything else, so why would you need fold equity when you ahead on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting all-in on the flop against this opponent is slightly profitable at best, whereas we probably have some nice implied odds if the money doesn't all go in. So, even on the flop, we need some folding equity for super-aggressive play to be best, unless Villain is a complete LAG-tard who will be hyper-aggressive with bottom pair and doesn't know how to fold it when played back at.

On the turn, our equity just went way down, so the situation has gotten worse for us and, as you say, the call is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that on the turn our equity went way down and wouldnt shove the turn myself, calling and hoping to improve on the turn is a much better option with the way the hand was played.

But in my first response you quoted I gave another scenario of how the hand could have been played out if it went hero cbet and villain c/r on the flop, then I stand by getting it in on this flop if the hand was played like this. You ahead in this hand so get the money in, if you wait till you a 70/30 favorite to get your money in every time you going to struggle to crush 50nl. You need to take advantage of every profitable situation.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
But in my first response you quoted I gave another scenario of how the hand could have been played out if it went hero cbet and villain c/r on the flop, then I stand by getting it in on this flop if the hand was played like this. You ahead in this hand so get the money in, if you wait till you a 70/30 favorite to get your money in every time you going to struggle to crush 50nl. You need to take advantage of every profitable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that in those great situations where you have a hand with huge potential versus an 80/10 guy, you might as well take advantage of your terrific implied odds (especially when in position) instead of rushing to flip coins with him.

I realize we're not entirely flipping coins since we probably do have some folding equity, but I think we should take our opponent and our position into account instead of just saying, "I have a massive draw. PUSH!"

Why commit all of our money to a draw that will miss almost half of the time when we'll probably be able to get it in anyway (and get called) after we make our hand?

Edit: On the other hand, versus an opponent who doesn't already look like he completely sucks after 10 hands, I'm fine with your proposed flop line.

[Nick Royale]

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Getting all-in on the flop against this opponent is slightly profitable at best

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say getting it all in is clearly +ev at worst.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that in those great situations where you have a hand with huge potential versus an 80/10 guy, you might as well take advantage of your terrific implied odds (especially when in position) instead of rushing to flip coins with him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thing is with those stacksizes we don't really have great implied odds. If you call we only have like a psb left and with 15 outs or even more we like to see the river anyway. So given that we don't have many hands on villain and we might have some fe pushing the flop is probably best.

[brandysbich]

I dont get all the FE talk...I WANT him to call with his wide range and let him see if he can miss 40%+ of the deck with 2 cards to come. Sorry this thread got a little sidetracked when I gave another example of how the hand could be played which is what I think myself, Nick C and Nick Royale are talking about.

To answer the OP and the hand in the OP I still think calling turn is optimal as played

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont get all the FE talk...I WANT him to call with his wide range and let him see if he can miss 40%+ of the deck with 2 cards to come. Sorry this thread got a little sidetracked when I gave another example of how the hand could be played which is what I think myself, Nick C and Nick Royale are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'm talking about the flop c/r scenario.

You want him to call with what? I want him to fold anything better than 6x, and I doubt he's check/raising 6x.

[Nick C]

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Getting all-in on the flop against this opponent is slightly profitable at best

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say getting it all in is clearly +ev at worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming we get called, I think it's basically slightly +EV. Occasionally our overcard will be worth something, but on the other hand sometimes we'll be up against a redraw on our flush/straight draws. Sometimes we'll be in bad shape against an ace-high flush draw, and sometimes we'll be in terrific shape against a lower flush draw or a worse straight draw.

So, yeah, I'd imagine we're +EV on average, just not terrifically so. But that oversimplifies things, because whatever folding equity we have should help.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that in those great situations where you have a hand with huge potential versus an 80/10 guy, you might as well take advantage of your terrific implied odds (especially when in position) instead of rushing to flip coins with him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thing is with those stacksizes we don't really have great implied odds. If you call we only have like a psb left and with 15 outs or even more we like to see the river anyway. So given that we don't have many hands on villain and we might have some fe pushing the flop is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you have a good point about the stack sizes, and also the pot is bigger on the flop than I realized.

So I'm now thinking that pushing if we face a flop checkraise is probably best.

And, just as a FWIW, with just a PSB left going into the turn, I would call a push. I don't anticipate that getting to the river is going to be a real problem.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming we get called, I think it's basically slightly +EV. Occasionally our overcard will be worth something, but on the other hand sometimes we'll be up against a redraw on our flush/straight draws. Sometimes we'll be in bad shape against an ace-high flush draw, and sometimes we'll be in terrific shape against a lower flush draw or a worse straight draw.

So, yeah, I'd imagine we're +EV on average, just not terrifically so.


[/ QUOTE ]
Even if we put him on a very tight range and he calls 100% we have 50% equity. We're getting about 1.3:1 on a push. Let's call that the worst case and it's still very +ev. And there's some cases where we actually have fe or he's on a slightly wider range.

[brandysbich]

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[ QUOTE ]
I dont get all the FE talk...I WANT him to call with his wide range and let him see if he can miss 40%+ of the deck with 2 cards to come. Sorry this thread got a little sidetracked when I gave another example of how the hand could be played which is what I think myself, Nick C and Nick Royale are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'm talking about the flop c/r scenario.

You want him to call with what? I want him to fold anything better than 6x, and I doubt he's check/raising 6x.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy. You ahead of everything but a set and QJ so even tho he doesnt have a made hand I'm happy getting it in when I have more equity in the hand than him, thus it being a profitable play. Whatever happens after that depends on how you running but irrespective you just made money.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you want him to call with any Q and AJ?

Hint: It's more +ev for you if he folds them.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming we get called, I think it's basically slightly +EV. Occasionally our overcard will be worth something, but on the other hand sometimes we'll be up against a redraw on our flush/straight draws. Sometimes we'll be in bad shape against an ace-high flush draw, and sometimes we'll be in terrific shape against a lower flush draw or a worse straight draw.

So, yeah, I'd imagine we're +EV on average, just not terrifically so.


[/ QUOTE ]
Even if we put him on a very tight range and he calls 100% we have 50% equity. We're getting about 1.3:1 on a push. Let's call that the worst case and it's still very +ev. And there's some cases where we actually have fe or he's on a slightly wider range.

[/ QUOTE ]

We basically agree. I think I was being influenced by another big-draw thread I had just responded to where Hero and a super-fishy Villain were much deeper.

But since in this thread we began with just ~80 BB effective stacks and 12 BB already went in all together preflop and our draw is huge, getting all our money in on the flop seems fine to me now, even against a big fish.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you want him to call with any Q and AJ?

Hint: It's more +ev for you if he folds them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd want him to call with AJ and Qx if the pot were empty. But it's far from empty in our c-bet/checkraise scenario.

[brandysbich]

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Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you want him to call with any Q and AJ?

Hint: It's more +ev for you if he folds them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You win 11 bucks from him if he folds...awesome...i'd rather take his whole stack 60% of the time.

[Hail Eris]

This seems pretty bad since you probably have very little FE, he's giving you great odds, he's probably paying off on any of your outs, and he may be drawing to a lower flush.

[Nick Royale]

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Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you want him to call with any Q and AJ?

Hint: It's more +ev for you if he folds them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You win 11 bucks from him if he folds...awesome...i'd rather take his whole stack 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your approach to poker isn't correct. You want to maximize your ev, not the times you win you win his whole stack.

If you push he's roughly getting the pot odds 1.7:1, his odds of winning the hand is about 1.4:1, thus you want him to fold.

Grasping a concept like this is a must if you want to improve your game and move up in stakes. It's not my intention to come off like a jerk, I'm just giving you some advice.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
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Well he's an 80/10 so I want him to call with ANY Q, AJ and i'm still completely happy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you want him to call with any Q and AJ?

Hint: It's more +ev for you if he folds them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You win 11 bucks from him if he folds...awesome...i'd rather take his whole stack 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's more fun to stack him, I know, but let's say we bet just $4 on the flop and Villain min-checkraises to $8. Suddenly there's ~$22 in the pot after we match that min-checkraise, and there's only ~$30 in Villain's stack left to play for.

Why wouldn't you rather win $22 all the time over winning $52 sixty percent and losing $30 forty percent?

It's actually only slightly more profitable on average if he folds in this scenario, I know, but then again I made the bet and raise small.

[brandysbich]

Theres no reason for this discussion to go in the wrong way. My approach to poker has made me a solid winner at 50nl/100nl +7ptbb/100 long term last time I checked. You might be playing higher or whatever and i guess we'll just agree to disagree.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Theres no reason for this discussion to go in the wrong way. My approach to poker has made me a solid winner at 50nl/100nl +7ptbb/100 long term last time I checked. You might be playing higher or whatever and i guess we'll just agree to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't doubt you're a solid winning player and if you don't have any intention of improving I'm not going to stop you, but making ev-calcs and learning how to count pot odds is crucial if plan to move past at least 200nl.

There's really nothing here to disagree with, it's plain and simple math. If he has AJ you want him to fold if you want to make the most money.

[brandysbich]

Maybe what i'm saying isnt coming out right. OBV mathematically it makes sense to want to win 11 no risk (only half the pot is his money) compared to winning his stack 60%ish of the time and yes what I've said might be a couple % off of optimal EV for the given situation.

But a lot of things that dont get accounted for is your image at the table after being caught 3 bet shoving with a draw (lets be honest, 50nl fish see you as a laggy fish trying to give money away if you going in without a made hand) You will get called down slightly lighter in future which all equates to $$$ in your pocket, which is worth making slightly less optimal EV plays for more money at the end of your session

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe what i'm saying isnt coming out right. OBV mathematically it makes sense to want to win 11 no risk (only half the pot is his money) compared to winning his stack 60%ish of the time and yes what I've said might be a couple % off of optimal EV for the given situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
It doesn't really matter who put the money in the pot. The pot you stand to win is 6+4+8 = 18, assuming a $4 bet and a c/minraise from his part.

[ QUOTE ]
But a lot of things that dont get accounted for is your image at the table after being caught 3 bet shoving with a draw (lets be honest, 50nl fish see you as a laggy fish trying to give money away if you going in without a made hand) You will get called down slightly lighter in future which all equates to $$$ in your pocket, which is worth making slightly less optimal EV plays for more money at the end of your session

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't think meta game plays a big part in 50nl, but if players do pay attention and think a player getting it in with a oesfd on the flop is fishy then ok.

As long as you understand the math behind it I'm not going to argue any more about it. GL at the tables!

[brandysbich]

And GL to you too sir

I do agree with your math calcs, i'm just thinking past that which probably isnt neccassry. I dont think Meta game plays a huge part at all at 50nl, i'm not exactly trying to blow their mind, but do I think theres guys that play 50nl that will say ZOMG LOL what a fish he put his whole stack in without even a pair hahahaaaa, and then do what they think is adjust accordingly to my play and make retarded call downs...yes