JJ in a 3 bet pot vs. newbelf - NL $50 6m

[AZplaya]

Villian is newbelf, I have him at about 21/17 over 2K hands, mostly datamined. He's very solid, one of the better tags at FTP NL $50 IMO. We have about 250 hands together, not sure how he views me though my stats are tag.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $50.25
BB: $89.15
UTG: $158.15
MP: $82.65
Hero (CO): $53.75
BTN: $52.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $6.50</font>, Hero calls $4.75

Flop: ($13.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $7.50</font>, Hero calls $7.50

Turn: ($28.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($28.25) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $39.75</font>

Pre flop I think an argument could be made for calling and 4 betting, because he obv has a wider 3 bet range than QQ+, AK+.

On the flop, his cbet seamed pretty weaksauce and thats a decent flop for my hand so I decided to call.

Turn, an argument can be made for betting but I was worried about the standard stack a donk c/r and want a cheap showdown.

River I'm sure alot of you will think is spew, but I really think my hand is just a bluff-catcher at this point, and I don't think he thinks I have the stones to bluff raise this river. This moves risky cuz he's getting pretty decent odds to call, but it doesnt have fold out a better hand all that often to be profitable.

Thoughts on all streets are appreciated. Obv this is far from standard ABC TAG that I normally play, but I'm wondering if making moves like this against solid regs is worth it.

[thing85]

Villain probably 3-bets light often enough for you to expect that he is behind you more often than not. I bet the turn here, as he is backing down - you'd hate to give him a free Q, K, or A (or diamond or spade).

[kaz2107]

wow... hmmm this is pretty crazy. i go thru lil spurts of a week or 2 when i do this kinda [censored] all the time and terrorize regs all over the place. then i normally stop after 2 or 3 dont work in a row. lol.

this spot is rough tho. being so shallow is tha ghey. if u were even 15 bucks deeper it would b sick. but given how shallow we r im not sure if i like it. he has to fold KK and QQ here to make this good imo and im not sure he can gettin these sick odds. blah. idk tho. close. if u r playin against me i prolly fold but not sure of his image of u or how solid he is. so meh. i dont love it. but as u said it is a feel thing. so at the table this could feel good and i say go for

[whyzze]

Two mistakes I think here.

I dont think he crai on this turn very often so definately make a bet here.

on the river. I hate the shove...its never folding out a better hand and Im not sure what you are going to get value from. As played its definately a call. But I hate the shove.


I think preflop is wel played. OOP I would prefer a 4bet. But with position I am calling.

[whyzze]

And from my experience with newbelf. He is pretty straight forward...especially against the regs. I expect he hit a flush on the river more than he has an overpair...and I dont think he bets with air.

[AZplaya]

meh I'm probably being results oriented cuz he folded and I thought there was a good chance he folded AA - QQ.

[traz]

A good reg will never fold QQ+ there getting more than 4:1