Flop decision: what now??

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">While this hand is from a higher-stakes game than you're used to playing, I'll give you the setup so that you can think it through the way I did.

The table is interesting. UTG (the guy on my immediate right) is a complete imbecile: over a bit more than 400 hands, he's running 51/9 preflop and 1.7 postflop. He's also losing money at about $1 per hand, so he's not exactly doing a great job of it. The rest of the table is made up of decently good players with TAG or sLAG stats: all have VPIPs under 30, all have PFR's over 10, all are gunning for the guy on my right. Of course, I've got the best position in the house....

I sat down at the table fifteen minutes ago. I've gotten involved in very few hands. I've been caught stealing once in a blind-vs-blind situation but I only lost a little cash in the process. I haven't been involved in any serious shakeups yet.</font>

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $115.10
BB: $135.50
UTG: $104.65
Pokey (MP): $104.45
CO: $105.50
BTN: $104.40

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, Pokey calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, 3 folds

<font color="blue">People aren't really reraising much on this table; I think they're holding out for better implied odds against UTG since he seems so bad at the game, and also trying to keep pots small when he's folded.

Against his raising range I'm probably behind, so a reraise would be imprudent. However, the implied odds are absolutely gorgeous here, so I'm willing to limp it. If I get a three-bet behind me I'll have to dump the hand, but sometimes you've got to gamble, right?</font>

Flop: ($7.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Pokey bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $17.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $102.65</font>, Pokey has a decision to make.

<font color="blue">An absolutely glorious flop for me: I've got the nut flush draw, the open-ended straight draw, and two overcards to the board. The preflop raiser checks, so I make a smallish bet to try and build a pot and disguise my hand for if-and-when I hit. CO (a decent TAG who runs 18/13 preflop and has a postflop aggression of nearly 5) makes a nearly pot-sized reraise to $17. UTG now wakes up and -- after checking the flop -- three-bets all-in. It's almost $100 to me, the pot has almost $130 in it, I'm all-in if I call, and there's still a player to act behind me who also has me covered. What to do, what to do?</font>

NOTE: your answer to the poll is basically unimportant, other than for idle curiosity. Much more interesting and important will be your reasoning why.

[wingchunflush]

Hmmm I might be off here but you called preflop to hit a flop like this. I think that if you don't call here you shouldn't be playing hands like this preflop. I call happily here. Worst case scenario he has 78 and we still have 9 outs for the flush. I call here

[kevin017]

i'm calling expecting to be ahead of UTG's overpair and worrying about CO having hit a set but hoping he had some sort of overpair as well.

[mookboi]

This is an insta-call in my opinion. I mean, we have an awesome combo draw. We have 9 outs to the nuts with the flush, as well as 6 other outs to a straight, which is likely to be the best hand. So with 15 outs, we are way ahead of his range. Even if he got 78 or a set, which is pretty much the worst case scenario, we are 40/60 here. With the dead money in the pot + the possibility of CO coming along, this is a no brainer call for me.

CO's range IMO here includes any 2 diamond overcards (KQ, KJ, etc), small overpairs 88-JJ, sets, straights, and lots of lesser combo draws of some sort. UTG could literally have anything. I mean, from AA to A4, to like 65, but as I stated above, it doesn't really matter, because he shoves this with so many hands that we are lightyears ahead of him.

The absolute worst case scenario IMO, if one of them has a set and the other a straight with 87, we are 28% according to PokerStove.

I get it in without even blinking.

[Nick C]

I probably call based on the idea that CO could just have an overpair and UTG could be making a frustration push after losing 4 buy-ins so far. Under those circumstances, our outs situation is actually better, rather than worse, than it appears.

Of course, I would meanwhile be worried that UTG flopped the set or straight his play represents and CO will fold. But even HU against a guy with 87, a call isn't that unprofitable. (Calling HU against UTG's 8c7c is only about a $8 mistake, unless I did the math wrong.)

[Snafu'd]

Easy call imo. UTG's line looks like what a donk does with JJ+ so I think you need not worry to much about a set from him. However, CO's range does include pocket pairs that either hit a set or created a redraw, but you also have to include a few flush draws and straight draws which you are ahead of (eg. 8d9d, KdQd, etc). Assuming these as reasonable ranges for your opponents, you have more than enough equity to get it all in.

[kaz2107]

given how bad u describe villian here i am calling. not to mention we also could get it all in on the flop with loads of equity against 2 people with 2 draws to the nutz basically. worse case one or both villians have the nut straight and we have 8 outs to win and 2 outs to tie.

[z28dreams]

Here are my thoughts. Mind you, I'm not a solid player yet, but a few things I think we can sort out:

PREFLOP:
-----------------

(1) Villain has a PFR of 9%. Given that he raised UTG, he has a pretty strong hand here. I'd put his range on something like 77+ for pairs, and maybe AK,AQ,AJs...something like that.

(2) CO from your description is solid. UTG raises, you call, and he OVERCALLS. While CO might normally want to get trappy against UTG with a big overpair (JJ+), with your cold call I think he'd definitely raise here. For me, this now puts CO on the a pretty wide range - any pocket pair (22+), suited connectors (54s+), and probably any 2 suited broadways (KJs, etc).

Flop: Let's narrow down the ranges now given the action:
-------------------
- UTG maniac checkraises. We would think an overpair would just bet this flop, but given his description a c/r makes more sense. In addition, it's unlikely that he hit a set or 2 pair given the low cards on the board. As played, I'm putting UTG on JJ+. Maybe even TT+. AK/AQ/AJs are unlikely because we hold the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
- CO raises our flop bet. Given preflop action, I don't think he has QQ,KK, or AA - he would have re-raised. He may have just called with JJ, not really sure. I'd say CO's range here is the widest of the bunch, and obviously good enough to raise. I'd put him on 44,55,66,65,54,87,77-TT.

So, let's pokerstove this b*tch given my flop ranges. The general idea before even running the numbers: we know that we're a slight favorite vs. an overpair, and around 1:1 vs. CO with a wide range (2pairr+sets+a few overs). If you take away 77-TT for a worst case scenario(only sets,2pr,straight), we're still only a 55/45 dog, which needs 1.2:1. Therefore, getting 1.3:1 should be enough. We can easily put CO on 2pair as often as he is on a set.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.143% 46.41% 01.73% 528079 19687.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 17.337% 16.88% 00.46% 192044 5215.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 34.519% 32.79% 01.73% 373068 19687.00 { TT-44, 87s, 65s, 54s, 87o, 65o, 54o }

So, we're looking at about 48% equity in this pot. We're getting slightly better (1.3:1), so I call. It really sucks having CO behind us though, because if we take 88-TT out of his range, we lose a ton of equity.

Even w/o these #'s, gamboooooool it up right?

z28's no-brain quick call tip:
OESFD vs. made set - usually around 60/40, 1.5:1. If you can include 2 pairs in the range, we easily hit the 1.3:1 odds we are being offered. That's my quick-and-dirty call reason here. It's reasons like this you need to know race odds.

[Xanta]

z28, pretty much a sweet post except for your UTG preflop range. A 51/9 is not positionally aware and half the time that they raise preflop it's just garbage. Just taking the top 9% of their hands is a mistake. That's what makes preflop such an easy call.

[Khumalo]

Yes to z28's analysis. My first-hand impression of UTG's range (given Pokey's description) is definitely weighted towards big pairs he's min-raising UTG to 'lure people in.' We have an A so AA is combinatorically less likely but still, his stats, profile, and pf to post-flop line strongly suggest {JJ+}. The rest of z28's analysis I will let speak for itself and endorse fully.

[Khumalo]

Xanta, doesn't UTG's range (his 'chosen' 9% of hands to Pfr, whatever it may be) become more sharply defined after his flop behavior? Did he raise with random garbage (driven by whatever stray firings of his brain) and nail this flop? Or might he actually be picky about the tiny selection of hands he opts to raise pf, and tend to overplay them?

I just find it odd to conceive of a minute raising range that is constantly randomized, like the guy limp-calls everything but occasionally misclicks and ends up raising anything from AJs to 79dd.

Plus, as a side note, I wonder how much we can allow ourselves to make of his raise-sizing pf. I know that many types of droolers will size their pf raises as the mood strikes them, which accidentally benefits them by obscuring their range pf. But this particular fellow seems very passive and droolers such as he often have a very polarized range when they min-raise pf. E.g. {monster pairs, tiny pairs}. Obviously Pokey isn't providing sufficient info for the purposes of this excercise, but it's something I try to sort of factor in, when possible.

[z28dreams]

[ QUOTE ]
z28, pretty much a sweet post except for your UTG preflop range. A 51/9 is not positionally aware and half the time that they raise preflop it's just garbage. Just taking the top 9% of their hands is a mistake. That's what makes preflop such an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably correct. What's the "bottom edge" of a 9% preflop raise though? Something like KT? I think Pokey actually broke this down once before.

I just used pokerstove, and tried to pick the best 9% of hands - here's what I got as a range:

88-AA
AT-AKs
KQs/KQo = 9.2%
--------------
Here's what a 15% PFR might look like:
(same as above plus:)
All KJ, QJ, and JT combinations = 15.2%

Obviously, this doesn't mean that they won't occasionally raise hands like A9s or T9s, but it gives you an idea of roughly where the cutoff is.

[Lego05]

This is so much better for hero than I thought it was going to be. Not my best effort but I still think a pretty good representation of ranges. UTG is hand 1 and CO is hand 2:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,177,512 games 0.046 secs 25,598,086 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.229% 41.92% 03.31% 493648 38931.67 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 24.077% 23.08% 00.99% 271814 11699.67 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK-JJ, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, 33, AdQd }
Hand 2: 30.693% 27.86% 02.83% 328109 33309.67 { TT, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, KdQd, 9d8d, 8c7c, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c5c, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6c5c, 6h5h, 6s5s, 6c4c, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5s4s }



Even without JJ and QQ in UTG's range:

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.486% 35.96% 03.52% 240949 23616.67 { Td7d }
Hand 1: 25.653% 24.60% 01.05% 164821 7060.17 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, 33, KdQd }
Hand 2: 34.861% 31.90% 02.96% 213723 19856.17 { 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, 6c6h, 6c6s, 6h6s, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5h5s, 4c4d, 4c4s, 4d4s, KdQd, 9d8d, 8c7c, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c5c, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6c5c, 6h5h, 6s5s, 6c4c, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5s4s }


So it seems a clear call...clearer than I thought. This is assuming CO calls of course.



Though if he folds you're in great shape vs. UTG so stick it in.

[kolotoure]

I'm never folding here even tho UTG's passive and him jamming is kind of scary. I havent stoved it but I'm guessing if he only does this with 2 pair+ we have enough equity to get it in here (i think he is jamming much wider though). CO is kind of scary but not enough to get me to fold.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm never folding here even tho UTG's passive and him jamming is kind of scary.

[/ QUOTE ]


For 51/9 how passive is 1.7 really? It's not the same as it'd be for a 19/16 player.


BTW where were you, kolotoure? You used to post here and then I didn't see you for a while and now you're back. Didn't you play 50NL with like a near double digit (not counting decimals obv.) winrate...or am I thinking of somebody else?

[Lego05]

BTW, Pokey, you're just calling this cause you wanted to play with the UTG donk right? You'd usually just fold this without too much thought?

[NL Newbie]

Not even loading PS here, easy call.

Ill discuss the finer 'nit picky' details tommorow when i can explain without falling to sleep (7am here).

[Edukashun]

I call

I'd put UTG on an overpair here with those stats I'd expect him to limp small PPs and only raise JJ+ &amp; AK PF. He hasn't got the AK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif so that just leaves JJ+.

CO is more worrying, if he's good his range PF will probably be wide like yours. I think his line leans towards sets but straights are possible to. Combo draws are unlikely in my opinion and the only suited /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hand we're behind is 23 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
However with all the $ in the pot this doesn't matter imo.
He call with all his sets and made straights. Let's say his range is 44-66,78o,78s,23o,23s if he calls, anything else he just folds and leaves some dead money to fatten up the pot.
We've got more than enough equity in the pot if he calls.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

701,631 games 0.030 secs 23,387,700 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.778% 42.06% 01.72% 295073 12084.50 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 03.893% 03.43% 00.47% 24047 3269.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 52.329% 50.61% 01.72% 355073 12084.50 { 66-44, 87s, 32s, 87o, 32o }


And If CO folds against UTG we're well ahead.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: 4h 5d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.390% 59.48% 00.91% 12366 189.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 39.610% 38.70% 00.91% 8046 189.00 { JJ+ }

[Edukashun]

After reading the other responses I missed some the other 2pair hands CO could call with, adding those we're in even better shape.

[corsakh]

This hand is boring. What would you do if you had Kd7d.

[Edukashun]

I'd fold it PF I'm not good enough postflop yet.

If I somehow got to the flop I'd be feeling out my depth.

Pokerstoving it we're in good shape aginst the range I first said but the more nut flush draws CO calls with the worse it gets.
I think there's still enough in the pot to call but I'd never get there.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is boring. What would you do if you had Kd7d.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's still a call even with T7d.

[hagum]

Instacall!

[Pokey]

The forum overwhelmingly favors a call, and I think that's the right decision. Considering the ranges for the villains and considering the pot conditions right now, I think I'm safely +EV with a call.

Followup question:

[NL Newbie]

These questions i find kind of strange, i see no real value to them other than theory but ok.

If CO folds, he clearly didn't have a big hand which means my equity is awesome in this pot 3way.

If CO calls, he has a good hand and my equity still isnt bad.

He obv isnt folding a set, so i dunno why us wanting him to call or fold makes any real life difference hence i dont see why these questions really arise. Maybe someone can explain their benifit?

If he has good equity, i want him to fold and forfit his % of the pot which means i get more. Sets have good equity, is he folding? No.

[wingchunflush]

I just have to say one thing.

Pokey for PREZ. Your posts are always insightful man thanks for doing them.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

These questions i find kind of strange, i see no real value to them other than theory but ok.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this is a very important question in general (though not so much so in this exact example):

1. If we know why we are making a play, then we learn more about what results we want to see.
2. If we know the results we want to see, then we learn more about how we can go about making them happen.

In this case it's irrelevant, since we're all-in if we call. However, in a more general case when we're deciding how to play with money still behind, we can be choosing between smooth-calling (to get overcallers, if that's what we want) or reraising all-in (to isolate, if that's what we want).

I could just as easily have phrased it differently: "is this a hand that plays better multi-way or heads-up?" Knowing the answer is the first step towards playing our hands correctly in general.

[kaz2107]

pretty sure we want CO to call since it will give us better pot odds and both draws we have are to the essential nuts. obv if he calls with a set or 2 pair it kinda sux i think we will still b fine and gain more money.

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure we want CO to call since it will give us better pot odds and both draws we have are to the essential nuts. obv if he calls with a set or 2 pair it kinda sux i think we will still b fine and gain more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

[z28dreams]

To answer the followup question:

Since we already put villains on a hand range with equities, this is just a simple math problem now.

Here were my ranges:
Hand 0: 48.143% 46.41% 01.73% 528079 19687.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 17.337% 16.88% 00.46% 192044 5215.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 34.519% 32.79% 01.73% 373068 19687.00 { TT-44, 87s, 65s, 54s, 87o, 65o, 54o }

If CO calls, the pot will be roughly $315. Our expected value here is .46(315) = $144

If CO folds, the pot will be roughly $229 and it's 2-ways. We'll have to rerun pokerstove to see our new equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.599% 49.24% 01.36% 10236 283.50 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 49.401% 48.04% 01.36% 9987 283.50 { JJ+ }

Here we have around 50.5% equity, so .505(229) = $115

Looks like it's better if CO calls.

[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
To answer the followup question:

Since we already put villains on a hand range with equities, this is just a simple math problem now.

Here were my ranges:
Hand 0: 48.143% 46.41% 01.73% 528079 19687.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 17.337% 16.88% 00.46% 192044 5215.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 34.519% 32.79% 01.73% 373068 19687.00 { TT-44, 87s, 65s, 54s, 87o, 65o, 54o }

If CO calls, the pot will be roughly $315. Our expected value here is .46(315) = $144

If CO folds, the pot will be roughly $229 and it's 2-ways. We'll have to rerun pokerstove to see our new equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.599% 49.24% 01.36% 10236 283.50 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 49.401% 48.04% 01.36% 9987 283.50 { JJ+ }

Here we have around 50.5% equity, so .505(229) = $115

Looks like it's better if CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range is wider than JJ+, I'd include 99 and TT as well, maybe 77 and 88, not sure if he raises those or plays it the same. I'm pretty sure he just looks at it and says OMG i have overpair SHOVEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

[bored]

If one only calls with sets and the other only calls with 87 our equity is still ~27%. If their ranges are 66-44, and 87, we have ~33% equity.

I think their ranges are bigger than this, so I want CO to tag along.