25NL, TPTK, 2+2 plz teach me how to valuebet

[Danimal 3000]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $32.85
BB: $15.00
UTG: $23.70
MP: $41.35
Hero (CO): $26.50
BTN: $26.50

Reads: <font color="blue">villain is 29/9/1.1</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $0.85</font>, Hero calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.55) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.25</font>, MP calls $3.25

River: ($12.05) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero ...</font>

so....Is this a spot to value bet? lots of worse hands are out there that could call, but I'm opening myself up to a bluff/value reraise that I really shouldn't call..

[pacman2k7]

He could have 88-TT, KJ, JQ, AK or AQ of spades

1. I don't like your preflop call
2. Bet more on turn make it $4,50
3. River bet $7,5-$8 would be fine

[VLV]

Personally I don't like calling PF w/ AJ, i prefer a 3bet.

As played I would value bet about $7 here. I know how you feel when you go "but he might raise me and then I'll have to fold instead of seeing a cheap showdown," Becasue I used to be/still am the same way. In the long run you are ahead of a lot more than what beats you.

I think a set would have raised you somewhere, no plausible 2 pair here, and 89 or 4x is unlikely. However, theres tones of hands w/ a J that will still just call.

[bozzer]

if you don't have much steal equity (and you might not have), i think folding preflop is fine - anyone agree?

[whyzze]

with those stats, calling here in Position is better than raising or folding.

anyways. Fire this river. What hand that beats you hasn't made a bet yet? Ya he is very passive, but he is also loose. Fire the river. 1/2 pot and you will get looked up by a pocketpair often enough.

[CruS]

I call pf, at least vs most villains, especially with AJs which would bring up the same situation anyways.

[xoom]

[ QUOTE ]
if you don't have much steal equity (and you might not have), i think folding preflop is fine - anyone agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

Versus a 10 % range consisting of 66+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo+,KQo you are 42 % to win the hand according to pokerstove. Against a passive opponent in position this is a definite call. I don't like 3-betting here, you are only getting called by hands that dominate you.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you don't have much steal equity (and you might not have), i think folding preflop is fine - anyone agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

Versus a 10 % range consisting of 66+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo+,KQo you are 42 % to win the hand according to pokerstove. Against a passive opponent in position this is a definite call. I don't like 3-betting here, you are only getting called by hands that dominate you.

[/ QUOTE ]

good work. his range is prolly more like 22+, AT+, KJ+ but that's fine, this is a call in position.

[traz]

a) I'm a nit
b) I fold preflop...the fact that you're x% against his raising range is NOT the point
c) I check behind alot on the turn here, but if I'm betting the turn I might fire off a super thin valuebet of 7 here, hoping to get called by KJ. Note that this is superthin and I wouldn't do it against most opponents, but this guy seems like he may call. I might just check though

[JackAll]

turn $3.8-$4
river $7-$8

[Danimal 3000]

In the hand, I bet $6.50 and Villain timed down, said "i just cant believe you/nh" and called with AK. He then berated me a bit for making a terrible value bet.

at 50NL I felt like this value bet was getting raised a LOT by unlikely better hands.

[Xanta]

Make it 6. Preflop is fine, if you're 3betting it's really as a bluff. AJ is a tough hand to play in 3bet pots, I wouldn't recommend it in this spot and think that coldcalling has higher EV.

No 2pair hands make sense for this guy, no sets make sense for this guy. You're almost always ahead on the river, so make a bet he can call with KJ or QJ (or apparently AK, lol)