Pokey, where is the road to VT in this situation?

[CruS]

Villain is fishy, sometimes over aggressive, sometimes calling down thin.

40/21/3.75

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($5.90)
BB ($40.10)
UTG ($26.05)
MP ($25.80)
Hero ($35.55)
Button ($48.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, Button calls $0.85, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.05) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $11</font>, Button calls $6.50.

Turn: ($22.55) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[Jago]

[x] not Pokey
[x] gives opinion anyway

CRAI turn or bet 10.5 turn and shove river

[CruS]

which do you prefer?
(I took one of the two lines) ^^

[corsakh]

C/r. He puts you on AK and is going to represent an 8 now. You may also be toast already.

[CruS]

ok, I did C/R and he bet 3$ then folded. I guess he would not have called a 10$ bet then

[Jago]

I probably like CRAI better for a few reasons:
a) gives villain a chance to take a shot with most of his range
b) if turn is checked you can still shove without it being an overbet
c) b/3b flop, c turn, shove flop looks inconsistent and makes you look like you're FOS
d) betting 1/2 your remaining stack looks really strong

Although:
a) you may lose value on a naked FD
b) you also fold out pure bluffs

4 v 2

[Lego05]

Bet 12. Shove river

[CruS]

Very different opinions on this one. I guess it is not such a big deal if you lead or c/r this turn.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet 12. Shove river

[/ QUOTE ]

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, I did C/R and he bet 3$ then folded. I guess he would not have called a 10$ bet then

[/ QUOTE ]

How much did you c/r to? If he bet so little, I'd make it $20 , maybe even less, to price the draws.

[CruS]

I actually only made it 2/3rds of the pot (17$)

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet 12. Shove river

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

THis man knows something. I see what he did here

[CruS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet 12. Shove river

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

THis man knows something. I see what he did here

[/ QUOTE ]

something like this?

[Jago]

Hmm guess I was wrong

how much better is the bet/shove line when compared to the CRAI?

[CruS]

Here are my thoughts:

AK-KT
Flushdraw
(99-TT)
A8
98, 87
88

Most kings slow down on this turn card.
The flushdraw hate seing the turn pair the board.
All 8s obviously loves it.


CRAI :

KT, KQ checks behind, AK might bet.
(seing this villain is fishy, the money goes in if he has AK here)
High aggro factor, but seing I reraised him on the flop, + the board paired I think he does not bet the flush that often if I check to him.
Any trips bets here.
(and all the money goes in, he has 4 outs)
Quads does not matter, I get stacked


Bet/Shove :

KT-KQ calls maybe 50% Folds 50%. Ak calls 50% raises 50%.
(I don't think he can lay down AK here given his stats, but a KT-KJ I'd give him that fold)
Flushdraws he might push maybe 30% of the time
(he folds a flushdraw the other 60% and makes a terrible call the last 10%)
Quads does not matter, I get stacked
Trips shoves / raises and we are all in.

edit: he might also have a Kx where x is a heart, but I find it unlikely that he didn't push the flop with such a hand.
If he does have that however, I think the money goes in either way on the turn.

[CruS]

C/R loses value on the turn from Kx, but I will probably get a call at most rivers.
Bet/Shove earns a lot from flush draws at the turn, but if the C/R line gets a check behind and the flush hits, the money goes in.
If villain has trips / quads here the money goes in either way on the turn.

In conclusion I'd say it's pretty even but a slight edge for B/S line

[Upgrade_U]

Something I'd like to note here is that when your valuebets don't get called for a while, then don't start betting smaller or not betting at all, well here you can do that since you pretty much have the nuts and he can only catch cards that will make it worse for him but otherwise sets on drawy boards etc. you just have to bet them out instead of trying to trap

[bozzer]

why on earth would you go for a checkraise after three betting the flop??

[Perk76]

Most villans wont go for a check raise/b3b twice in the same hand. After the 1st chckraise, villan is most likely doubting his holdings, and will check behind alot of the time on the turn.

I like: "Bet 12. Shove river" hoping that he still may value a strong King/Aces hand and have you on maybe the same, flush draw, etc.

B3B then a check raise is just too strong looking.

[mbman]

Weakleading the turn is very hot here, give him a nice price to call with his king, and when he calls that, calling the river push will be cheap for him too!

[corsakh]

Hokay, I will try to elaborate /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Leading for half pot IMHO is a pretty bad idea since its pretty obvious your not really folding anything getting 1 to 5 on a raise. With no stack behind to worry about blocking it becomes a very obvious milking bet. If you lead this turn, have to do so for near the pot size.

But then I don't really think that most of his range stands this much heat on the turn and your only getting called by the hands that smash you like K8.

By betting you also take away his ability to bluff hence if he is a semi thinking type he may understand that your much more likely to have AK than an 8 here and it may be a scary card for you.

From my point of vies, his most likely holding here is AK KQ and some sort of a draw. Draws are dead, AK and alike have 4 outs. This is really the deciding factor here for me. You are really comfortable giving a free card here and let him hang himself / catch a draw out on the river. If he has a king he is much more likely to call a moderate river bet after you showed weakness on the turn rather than calling $12 on the turn knowing that the rest of his money goes in on the river no matter what. He is also more likely to bluff with a missed draw if you put a weak blocking bet on the river after checking the turn. Then he can also his his draw. River shove may also be an option, but it depends what type of player he is and how much you weight AK vs 76h in his range.

Now this c/r indeed looks monstrous, but the villain really has no room to fold here. Even if he bets half pot, he is still getting 5 to 1 and no way he is getting away here.

You just got unlucky he bet so little. Should he checked this, you would have gotten some value on the river.

[CruS]

[ QUOTE ]
Most villans wont go for a check raise/b3b twice in the same hand. After the 1st chckraise, villan is most likely doubting his holdings, and will check behind alot of the time on the turn.

I like: "Bet 12. Shove river" hoping that he still may value a strong King/Aces hand and have you on maybe the same, flush draw, etc.

B3B then a check raise is just too strong looking.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing with a check raise here is not to confuse him on his hand strength, it's the check that is relevant.
If he bites and bets after my check (&gt;1/2) he is commited anyway and that it "looks too strong" is barely a factor now. IMHO

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, I did C/R and he bet 3$ then folded. I guess he would not have called a 10$ bet then

[/ QUOTE ]

C/R after 3-betting a flop is so suspicous. I would have just led the turn.

Anyways, after he bets $3 into me I think I'm flat calling and leading the river for 1/2 psb - he clearly doesnt want to play, but this way ofers him a showdown for a relatively good price with what he can talk himself into be a "long run good call"

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

why on earth would you go for a checkraise after three betting the flop??


[/ QUOTE ]

That's my opinion, too. Remember, you've got to tell a consistent story. Three-betting the flop and then checking the turn looks ... odd. Check-RAISING the turn after three-betting the flop makes it look like you've got a monster, and villain will fold with most holdings.

Better, in my opinion, is to make a "scared" bet. I'd probably bet $10. After all, you've only got $24 left in your stack and you've got two streets for getting it in. Your $10 bet looks like a blocking bet or an increasingly scared hand, and villain can talk himself into calling with hands as flimsy as QQ or Kx. Then on the river you push any hand -- it'll be $14 into a $42 pot, and villain will have crying-call odds for any made hand that called the turn.

Also, if villain is on the flush draw, the $10 on the turn is easily callable, and the $14 on the river will get instacalled IF he hits his flush, and it will possibly get called if he improves to a good pair. In short, I think the two smallish bets have the best chance of making good value in this hand.

Remember: now that you've got the full house, you're not afraid of the flush. Give him generous odds to fish for it and then let him hang himself if he improves to a second-best hand.

Editing to say: for the people who say "the strength of the check-raise is irrelevant; after he bets, he's pot-committed," you're making a classic mistake -- you're assuming your opponent is as well-versed in the game as you are. I was sitting at the table yesterday and saw a person bet $60 into a $140 pot. His opponent check-raised him all in, and he folded. At the time, he had exactly $0.85 behind. That's right -- he folded a $260 pot for an 85-cent raise.

Don't ever trick yourself into thinking that your opponent MUST call your bet -- that "fold" button is always on the table layout.

One more thing: after you three-bet the flop, even if you check your opponent might choose to check behind. Then you have the unpleasant situation of trying to get $24 into a $22 pot on the river, which isn't going to happen under normal circumstances. Alternatively, your opponent might make an uber-pansy bet on the turn (as he did in this case), at which point ANY raise (even a min-raise) looks super strong and still doesn't get much money into the pot.

Make the small bet and get the rest in on the river if you can. If not, be thankful that you got an extra $10.

[traz]

I think this is one of those situations where it really doesn't matter. If villain likes his hand the money is going in and if he doesn't he's going to cf all other streets. Chances are he's not a thinking villain either, so being "consistent" isn't of major importance.

That being said, I probably half-pot the turn and get the rest in on the river, the reason being if we both check the turn then it makes it hard to get his whole stack in on the river.

[JackAll]

I was gonna say "Isn't pokey dead?" since I haven't seen his posts for like ever.Then I saw the reply from just now and I am gonna change it to "Holy mother of god, Pokey is still alive!"

(nb I only come to check the micros fairly seldomly)


Btw pokey, do you still play? If so, what limits?

[corsakh]

Last time I saw him in CAP15 on FTP running at about 100ptbb /images/graemlins/smile.gif