$50NL Did my AQ just turn into a bluff catcher or do I stack off? [Archive]

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HBomb

09-23-2007, 04:24 AM

I really have no clue what to make of this hand... if you can help me, please enlighten me. No reads on villian, he was at my table for 11 hands including this one before he hit and ran.

I figured my hand was best preflop, so I thought that it would be a good flop to c-bet, so I was planning on maybe check raising all in on the turn if he bet, and then when I tried to value bet the river, I'm getting shoved on... I'm worried about 3 major hands here... KK/99/66 and any J10x type hands, even though for some reason I feel less likely he has 66 the way it was played out (figuring he would try to get more value out of it earlier throughout the hand the way it was played)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Button ($49.20)
Hero ($187.25)
BB ($49.75)
UTG ($56.55)
MP ($120.80)
CO ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Button raises to $1.5, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50.

Flop: ($10.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $7.5, Button calls $7.50.

Turn: ($25.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($25.50) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button raises to $36.7, Hero ??

mdm13

09-23-2007, 04:56 AM

I can't see anything you beat that would be raising this river. I would probably bet/fold the turn, becaues you might get some value from things like 77,88,99,JJ and if he raises you can be fairly sure he has trips or better.

EDIT: just noticed stack sizes make bet/fold awkward. More like check or shove are options. Probably check as you did, and then check river intending to call a small bet. Tricky hand I geess.

HBomb

09-23-2007, 05:03 AM

I feel so bad about not betting that river though the way this hand played out...

ICMoney

09-23-2007, 05:53 AM

I played a similar hand today.

What do you do if you check river and he pots it?

kindergartencop

09-23-2007, 06:17 AM

i dont know if its optimal but i check turn c/c river i think.

Gelford

09-23-2007, 06:25 AM

I prefer to bet turn, but holla ... river is fine, just call it and go "ohh well" if he has a T

NL Newbie

09-23-2007, 06:35 AM

Bet turn, check river
or Check turn, bet/fold river.
Definatly a monster.

Flops like these are ok vs some and bad to cbet vs others. It depends on your position as OOP you'll often be floated leading to a bloated pot which may be stolen on any turn or river card.

whyzze

09-23-2007, 06:43 AM

Checking the turn planning to crai definately maximizes our EV here. After he checks behind it tells me he has a hand he thinks has some showdown value. Not necessarily the nuts. This means that I should make a small valuebet on the river.

Now the tricky part comes. What hand raises this river that you beat. I definately cannot find one here. He is in position so if he has a marginal holding and thinks you are bluffing its just stupid to raise. Your hand does look like it missed bigtime but I cant see any hand trying to shove you off your AK that is still around.

you are getting roughly 4-1. This is where it gets tough. I dont think you are getting odds to call here. the only hand I can possibly come close to putting villian on is a horribly played JJ that just turned its hand into a bluff.

This is a fold imo. Could I make the fold? Doubt it.

HBomb

09-23-2007, 03:53 PM

I ended up folding this hand, but getting 4-1 on my call do you think that I probably should've called knowing that he might be shoving with JJ, KQ, or even another AQ?

pbx

09-23-2007, 05:10 PM

I think a lot of people are ignoring hero's 3bet pre and villains call. Sure he could be a donk (and we have no way of knowing just yet as hero has only seen him play 11 hands), but dont we have to narrow his range to almost entirely consist of hands that have us crushed after his c-bet call ?

I think it boils down to what you are cbetting here for. Do you think this for value? (i.e your hand is best) or are you trying to get hands similar to yours + mid pp to fold ?(KQ AJ KJ QJ 77 88) I think its the latter and thus after his flop call that Turn Q isnt as good a card for you as you think and you should be planning to get this hand to showdown cheaply. This in itself is difficult as you are out of position and checking on the turn shows a lot of weakness . Villains range could easily still include mid PP and after your turn check he may be thinking "zomg uncoordinated board hes checked the turn so he probably doesnt have a Q, [X] i put him on AK" and fire into you.

This sets you up on the river oop with a probable marginal holding vs villians range with little to no fold equity (so shoving him off his hand just isnt going to work). I guess all you can do is call a small river bet and fold to anything > 1/2 PSB