50NL: Failed float, boat on river on nasty board.

[Sean Fraley]

UTG is a rather tight TAG(19/14/4), BB is very loose(52/19/2), passive on the flop but very aggressive on turn and river and has been running hotter than hell (WSD% 55/ W$SD% 75 over 40 hands).


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($31.25)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($171.70)</font>
UTG ($50.45)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($50.50)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5, BB calls $5.

The flop is pretty dry and UTG's bet is quite likely a c-bet. Figured a float would work here if I get checked to on the turn, but BB calling didn't make me happy.

Turn: ($21.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, UTG folds.

Tried my float anyway, but the five on the turn really sucks. Even worse when villain calls my bet.

River: ($33.25) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $32.5</font>, Hero ???

OK, I've got a boat, but if BB called with anything but PP or gutshot on the flop I'm completely screwed. Should I just assume that I'm beat here or is a boat worth calling with?

[panda]

Zeebo theorem: people don't fold full houses.

Turn is not one to bet even though u did float and get checked to, both opponents will call you down with too wide of their ranges here, especially BB.

River is an easy fold, he isn't doing this with anything you beat.

[Nogatsira]

I think it's a bad idea to float this flop with 1 person behind you that is very loose and agressive on the turn.
I think it's better to reraise this c/bet, to take it down while you probably still have the best hand.

I wouldnt really float the 5, because BB called aswell preflop so he might pretty well have hit a piece of that flop.

I don't think you can call the river and expect to make profit in the long run. He might be shoving with small pocket pairs 66-77-88 that you beat, or it might be a total bluff, but I think you'll see a 9 or a 5 more then 75% of the time here.

[Sean Fraley]

Thanks for the responses. Due to BB calling the flop, I thought the turn bet was a bad idea but made it anyway. When he shoved the river, I hovered over the fold button but talked myself into a call and lost to villains 97o. I really need to learn to trust my instincts a bit more. On the other hand, I took him for over 5 buy-ins in the course of the next 3 orbits.

[Nogatsira]

It's not only about trusting your instincts, it's some logical thinking and doing the what you think is the correct play.
Don't think about whats the correct play and do another (or maybe thats what you ment with your instincts?)

[DaycareInferno]

i would just fold to the cbet. you're going to get double barreled here the majority of the time on that flop versus a 19/14/4. you got a good price to fish for a set. you didn't make it, and you're not really in a great spot for floating, especially with another player still left to act behind you.

[bozzer]

i initially thought this was a horrible spot for a float.

thinking about it HU, lets say he only has AK,AQ and pps below say sevens that he'll fold on the turn. if he checks the turn his range is maybe AQ+,22-88, so he'll fold most (4/5ths) of his range, but he will fire again with at least a third of his range.

so 1/3 time we lose $5, and 2/3*4/5 of the time we win $11.25, and 2/3*1/5 we (let's assume you check river) lose $17 (call + turn bet).

-$1.66 +$5.95 -$2.2 = +$2.09

if he double barrels much at all with AK this probably starts becoming breakeven HU, but it's not as bad as i thought it might be.

I think with the loose player in the pot though this is a losing play.

[Hail Eris]

Seriously, don't float this flop. If BB folds and UTG is any good, he's not cbetting here to give up on the turn, and you'll be looking at a 2nd barrel very often.