50nl River decision?

[0524432]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $87.05
Hero (BB): $57.10
UTG: $62.65
MP: $45.00
CO: $46.75
BTN: $36.75

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 15/5/1 over 183 (all stats from data mining)

First session with this player, seems tight and passive.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($7.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.20</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $5.20, CO folds

Turn: ($17.65) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, MP calls $14.00

River: ($45.65) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)


What's your play? Villain has approx $24 behind after river

[sightless]

shove
if he has you beat he is going to shove himself

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
shove
if he has you beat he is going to shove himself

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain?

[catoandtonic]

Shove. We aren't folding. He checks with hands you beat and bets with hands that beat you.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove. We aren't folding. He checks with hands you beat and bets with hands that beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this even mean?

[0524432]

BUMP FOR THOUGHTFUL REPLIES

[catoandtonic]

What it means is this. Our money is going in regardless. Our hand is too strong and pot is too large to make folding an option. The situation is one where villain will ONLY bet if he has us beat and will check behind with marginal hands. But, he will call with many of those marginal hands. So, we shove because now we get his money in the pot when we are beat AND many times when we are ahead. I hope that clears it up.

[Axehero]

I wouldnt put him on a FH, i think he would raise the flop or the turn if he had a set. He doesn want 2 see a fourth spade.

In my opinion he has the A of spades, and he just couldnt lay down a str8 flush draw.

So i would shove, because its very likely that he pushes himself, even if he just wants to bet a busted draw.

[0524432]

First of all, thank you for a thought-out response.

So you're saying, he makes the call for his stack with enough hands that we have beat to make shoving +eV?

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldnt put him on a FH, i think he would raise the flop or the turn if he had a set. He doesn want 2 see a fourth spade.

In my opinion he has the A of spades, and he just couldnt lay down a str8 flush draw.

So i would shove, because its very likely that he pushes himself, even if he just wants to bet a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will be posting the results after a number of additional responses. I think this is a very important situation in NLHE to be making the correct decision. EV is the equation here. Thank you for your response, keep them coming. I've already got an opinion of my own as to what the most + Expectation play on the river is. I'll be posting the results and my thoughts sometime later today.

[salesbeast]

SHOVE....aww in baby!

[clowntable]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldnt put him on a FH, i think he would raise the flop or the turn if he had a set. He doesn want 2 see a fourth spade.

In my opinion he has the A of spades, and he just couldnt lay down a str8 flush draw.

So i would shove, because its very likely that he pushes himself, even if he just wants to bet a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will be posting the results after a number of additional responses. I think this is a very important situation in NLHE to be making the correct decision. EV is the equation here. Thank you for your response, keep them coming. I've already got an opinion of my own as to what the most + Expectation play on the river is. I'll be posting the results and my thoughts sometime later today.

[/ QUOTE ]
We cannot fold the river and by shoving we might get some hands that we beat to call us.
If he might bluff a missed AsXs we can consider checking.

[0524432]

I agree there is definitely something to be said for checking this river to induce a bluff from a missed FD, as checking the river can very often induce a bluff from MANY villains in this size of a pot if they think they can take it away with a river shove.

[popeye18]

Im having a really hard time putting villain on any sort of hand range. A poorly played As or a medium pocket pair maybe?

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

grunch....

uhhh bet again? for value? most people would have put in a raise SOMEWHERE if your t-high flush isnt good...so i thinking vbetting is +ev no?

[panda]

Fold pf easy.

River isn't even a decision, easy push.

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

by bet i mean shove

[Mr.JR]

C/R flop. Shove river.

[popeye18]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf easy.

River isn't even a decision, easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone in has decent stacks, i like this call pf.

[panda]

Surely this hand shows how hard it is to play suited connecters or semi-connectors out of position even when you flop the near nuts?

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf easy.

River isn't even a decision, easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone in has decent stacks, i like this call pf.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yea Panda you're simply wrong about the PF call. The price was right to make the call. If you'd like to discusss the PF call, feel free, but the betting is the topic worth discussing here.

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree there is definitely something to be said for checking this river to induce a bluff from a missed FD, as checking the river can very often induce a bluff from MANY villains in this size of a pot if they think they can take it away with a river shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


AsXx is the lower end of straight. Villain isn't going to bluff a hand like that after the previous streets action. He'd just show it down, probably hoping for a split. Even if villain has 66(maybe 6s), he would probably check and show down. Other overpairs are a possibility as well. If he has one of these, he may feel that the 3 pairing may have counterfeited us if we flopped 2 pair. But, I still don't see him betting it.

Of all these hands, the only one(s) I can see him betting, is if he holds a 6 or possibly 67, but he will call our shove with those(most likely).

Also, villains 1 aggression playing 15% of hands isnt making me think that he is gonna bluff or make a thin value bet in this spot.

You are correct that in some spots it is better to let an opponent bluff. This is more true against aggressive opponents. I just don't think this is the villain to rely on to do your betting for you.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
C/R flop. Shove river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have much too strong/vulnerable to check this flop. IMO checking this is a horrendous play. Also, leading is extremely deceptive to many inexperienced villains (which most are at micro nl). Leading extracts value from draws, as well as straights, sets, and less. FYI, I'm felting this to a raise. It is so unlikely to me to lead a made flush here, I expect to be raised by SO many hands weaker than mine, I will gladly felt to a better hand the few times I find myself in that cooler situation.

[popeye18]

I decided on shove. He will be getting 3 to 1 on a call with an ace and this is 50nl.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree there is definitely something to be said for checking this river to induce a bluff from a missed FD, as checking the river can very often induce a bluff from MANY villains in this size of a pot if they think they can take it away with a river shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


I like this response a lot. I think your thought process clears up the idea of checking the river to induce a blugg from the villain who has missed his NFD. It would be very unlikely for a villain to call both flop and turn large bets with the Ks or lower. Assuming he has the AsXx....he has made the wheel on the turn and no real reason to raise the turn, as he still has the NFD and could be beat.

If the As was not such a HUGE part of his range, check/calling the river would be much more profitable by inducing a bluff. In this case however, villain has at LEAST the wheel here and will be very happy to showdown his straight and therefor much less likely to bet the river.

VN response

AsXx is the lower end of straight. Villain isn't going to bluff a hand like that after the previous streets action. He'd just show it down, probably hoping for a split. Even if villain has 66(maybe 6s), he would probably check and show down. Other overpairs are a possibility as well. If he has one of these, he may feel that the 3 pairing may have counterfeited us if we flopped 2 pair. But, I still don't see him betting it.

Of all these hands, the only one(s) I can see him betting, is if he holds a 6 or possibly 67, but he will call our shove with those(most likely).

Also, villains 1 aggression playing 15% of hands isnt making me think that he is gonna bluff or make a thin value bet in this spot.

You are correct that in some spots it is better to let an opponent bluff. This is more true against aggressive opponents. I just don't think this is the villain to rely on to do your betting for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

[0524432]

I will be posting the results of the hand in the next 10-15 minutes. Please discuss/pots any additional thoughts you have, then we can discuss the hand as it was completely played in practice.

[0524432]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $87.05
Hero (BB): $57.10
UTG: $62.65
MP: $45.00
CO: $46.75
BTN: $36.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($7.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.20</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $5.20, CO folds

Turn: ($17.65) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, MP calls $14.00

River: ($45.65) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises all-in to $24.05</font>, Hero calls $0.05

Pot Size: $93.75 ($3 Rake)

MP had 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (a full house, Twos full of Threes) and WON (+$45.75)
Hero had 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (a flush, Ten high) and LOST (-$45.00)


I spoke with someone immediately after the hand and we came to the conclusion that check/calling the river was the most profitable play here. Since I've posted it here I've decided otherwise. Like "catoandtonic" brings up, the As is such a big part of the villains range (after just calling the flop and turn bet {you would think a set would raise the flop?}). I think I would be extracting value from the wheel, higher straight, or mp here enough to the time to make the river shove +eV. AKA....I think he calls the river shove with the wheel (very likely), 6-7 high straight....2pr....or MP (all less likely) enough MORE than he has a higher flush or river boat (given his line) to make the river shove profitable.

[Spinners]

Flushes always have less value on paired boards

[Hail Eris]

This hand is played perfect, imo. He's never turning the wheel into a bluff and check/calling this river is very bad.

[panda]

[ QUOTE ]
Flushes always have less value on paired boards

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF - we have 1/2 our stack in good before the board pairs. If villain did fill up, then let it be, but we are way ahead of his range still.

[Nogatsira]

You have to shove this river.

If you shove:
-a higher flush or boat beats you
-2pair, straight, trips, .. will call you down probably

If you check/call:
-a higher flush and boat shove and you lose your stack anyhow
-2pair, straight, trips that would otherwise call might check behind now, so you lose all that value


I think this makes for a VERY easy shove

[0524432]

good explanation nogatsira.

[zach383z]

I push the river for his 24 left, reason being, the way he played this, I do not think he has a FH due to weak action. What I expect to see here is either Ax with A of spade or just maybe an over pair but not so much there...