NL50 - AA 200BB deep

[yegon]

Villain was 22/19/3 over 30 hands - no reads
Normally with 100BB stacks I would push here without second thoughts. In this situation however when we were both 200BB deep I am not sure if the b/3bAI is the most profitable way to play this.


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $103.74
BB: $50.00
UTG: $46.44
CO: $59.04
BTN: $103.99

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $6.00

Flop: ($16.50) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $38.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $95.74 ??? </font>,

[TheRenaissance]

If you shove he will call only with hands that beat you, bar some special history between you. Calling isnt good either, unless you think that might entice him into taking another wild shot with 88/78s/we. Note that I often play deep games, and I rarely fold aces. But against this player, this deep, a fold is probably best.

I might shove if villain saw me as a bit wild and crazy and could call me with a bluffcatcher, or if I had been 3 betting a lot and villain was getting frustrated.


Edit: seeing as you only have 30 hands on villain it is a bit closer, but I'd still err on the side of caution here.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
If you shove he will call only with hands that beat you, bar some special history between you. Calling isnt good either, unless you think that might entice him into taking another wild shot with 88/78s/we. Note that I often play deep games, and I rarely fold aces. But against this player, this deep, a fold is probably best.

I might shove if villain saw me as a bit wild and crazy and could call me with a bluffcatcher, or if I had been 3 betting a lot and villain was getting frustrated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing but do you think this could be QQ? KK 4bets pf 99% of the time but people just call w/QQ sometimes. This really looks like JJ though.

[thac]

I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain raised flop with 88 or QQ and is a half-decent multitabler he shouldnt put another dime into the pot.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain raised flop with 88 or QQ and is a half-decent multitabler he shouldnt put another dime into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing though, he's readless. This guy could have anything in all honesty. If we had reads that he doesn't raise without the nuts, we can fold - but we don't have that read and we have to assume that there's always a 10% chance of a bluff (HoH vol.1), plus the fact that he could be overplaying JT or AJ, or could have QQ or KK makes this at least a call for me - I just don't see folding aces for 2 buyins in a 3-bet pot.

[yegon]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you mean I should go all the way with this hand, just take a passive route to allow worse hands to go broke?

should I allways push turn or only if a flush draw card comes or a T?

what hands can I expect to bet after I call the flop? QQ?

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you mean I should go all the way with this hand, just take a passive route to allow worse hands to go broke?

should I allways push turn or only if a flush draw card comes or a T?

what hands can I expect to bet after I call the flop? QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you shove, you take out all of villain's chances of turning his hand into a bluff.

I wouldn't necessarily shove many turns because it's so unlikely that villain catches up if he's behind. I wouldn't mind a c/c, c/c or c/c, shove river depending on how stacks were after the turn betsizes.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably bet 11.5 or 12 on flop. I think there's nothing good about shoving this over his raise. The only draws are QT and 87, which probably don't call preflop.

Call his flop raise and check turn with intentions of calling or shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain raised flop with 88 or QQ and is a half-decent multitabler he shouldnt put another dime into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing though, he's readless. This guy could have anything in all honesty. If we had reads that he doesn't raise without the nuts, we can fold - but we don't have that read and we have to assume that there's always a 10% chance of a bluff (HoH vol.1), plus the fact that he could be overplaying JT or AJ, or could have QQ or KK makes this at least a call for me - I just don't see folding aces for 2 buyins in a 3-bet pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Readless I tend to go with any little piece of information I got. 30 hands isnt much, but they do point in a certain direction (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php) if you know what I mean. Maybe this is bad, I dont know.

[bozzer]

spr is like 15 though thac - that seems too great to just stack off.

[thac]

But 22/19/3 is playing many hands and is pretty aggressive with all of them.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
spr is like 15 though thac - that seems too great to just stack off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said in my 2nd to last post, you can c/c turn and river, you don't have to stack off, but I think folding aces to one raise in a 3-bet pot against a pretty active player is way too weak/nitty.

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]

Like I said in my 2nd to last post, you can c/c turn and river, you don't have to stack off,

[/ QUOTE ]

If we call then we have less than a psb left so no. We are stacking off if we call down.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
spr is like 15 though thac - that seems too great to just stack off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said in my 2nd to last post, you can c/c turn and river, you don't have to stack off, but I think folding aces to one raise in a 3-bet pot against a pretty active player is way too weak/nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, you are right when I think about it. I've stacked off with less this deep against players with similar stats. Listen to thac.

Also I dont feel comfortable being the youonlyhaveonepairplzfoldguy - I'll go back to being omgallinguy now.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Like I said in my 2nd to last post, you can c/c turn and river, you don't have to stack off,

[/ QUOTE ]

If we call then we have less than a psb left so no. We are stacking off if we call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, yeah I'm dumb I was thinking .5/1 and $200 stacks.. I still would call here and c/c his turn or river shove.

[Subzero_Wins]

This looks like an extremely basic flop shove to me. I really doubt he's raising QQ/KK for half his stack then folding to a shove.

J, Q, K, and A are all horrible turn cards for you.

[sightless]

3bet pot aa = all in on the flop

[TheRenaissance]

100bb deep: flop shove good.
200bb deep: not so much.

Reason:
Only one worse hand in villain's range can be expected to call - QQ.
Sometimes he will fold even that.

[Khumalo]

OP, I really think that pf your 3 bet, especially OOP and this deep, needs to be something like 5x his raise, so around ~$10 or something. And if you judge that your 3 bet might even be nudged up to like $12 without inducing villain to play correctly (fold &lt; KK+), then go for it.

Once we get to the flop, I strongly favor checking that particular texture this deep and OOP. It's such a clear WA/WB scenario to me, and I'd rather check-call two streets, inducing action from hands like QQ (maybe AJs? and 'slowplayed' KK obv) and occasionally some random hand he took a gamble with pre, or have the flop checked through and lead/re-eval the turn between 1/2 and 2/3 pot. I'm not going to fret about getting two-outered if no betting occurs on the flop.

As played, you're in a terrible spot and have to guess if villain flatted KK pre so he could trap (!) a c-bet / stack you on a non-A flop, if he has a set (maybe even 99), is a retard with QQ (meh), or is making a move (least likely, readless.)

Holdem Ranger says, for a range that takes villain's exact line against you, which I've construed as [JJ, 99, KK(33% of the time), QQ(15%), AJs(25%), QT(10%)] that your equity after his flop raise is ~40%.

So you can pot-odds it and take whatever line maximizes EV, and I'll just guess that folding can't be too large a mistake. Someone please correct this final assumption, if need be.

[Subzero_Wins]

I think folding here is horrible.

Hero put in a nice 3-bet and we have the third best hand in our range (assuming you'd 3-bet 99 and JJ too). We have little to no read, which means we can see anything from air to QT to AJ to KK. Not to mention the whole we're getting 3:2 thing.

[DaycareInferno]

i'm not neccessarily saying that i shove here, but i think its crazy to say that we only get called by hands that beat us, or anything even close to that. most randoms stack off with all the same crap whether its 100b or 200b.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
100bb deep: flop shove good.
200bb deep: not so much.

Reason:
Only one worse hand in villain's range can be expected to call - QQ.
Sometimes he will fold even that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. getting it on turn is much better

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
100bb deep: flop shove good.
200bb deep: not so much.

Reason:
Only one worse hand in villain's range can be expected to call - QQ.
Sometimes he will fold even that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. getting it on turn is much better

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. If we are going to felt this hand villain we should give villain some room to [censored] up.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, I really think that pf your 3 bet, especially OOP and this deep, needs to be something like 5x his raise, so around ~$10 or something. And if you judge that your 3 bet might even be nudged up to like $12 without inducing villain to play correctly (fold &lt; KK+), then go for it.

Once we get to the flop, I strongly favor checking that particular texture this deep and OOP. It's such a clear WA/WB scenario to me, and I'd rather check-call two streets, inducing action from hands like QQ (maybe AJs? and 'slowplayed' KK obv) and occasionally some random hand he took a gamble with pre, or have the flop checked through and lead/re-eval the turn between 1/2 and 2/3 pot. I'm not going to fret about getting two-outered if no betting occurs on the flop.

As played, you're in a terrible spot and have to guess if villain flatted KK pre so he could trap (!) a c-bet / stack you on a non-A flop, if he has a set (maybe even 99), is a retard with QQ (meh), or is making a move (least likely, readless.)

Holdem Ranger says, for a range that takes villain's exact line against you, which I've construed as [JJ, 99, KK(33% of the time), QQ(15%), AJs(25%), QT(10%)] that your equity after his flop raise is ~40%.

So you can pot-odds it and take whatever line maximizes EV, and I'll just guess that folding can't be too large a mistake. Someone please correct this final assumption, if need be.

[/ QUOTE ]


Very nice post Khumalo.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
most randoms stack off with all the same crap whether its 100b or 200b.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. But villain does not seem like a total idiot given his stats so far (yes I know it is only 30 hands). To treat him like a complete unknown is a mistake IMO. And calling and letting him bet the turn for us seems like a much better line than pushing flop.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. If we are going to felt this hand villain we should give villain some room to [censored] up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

[.xxxx.]

is 200BB really so deep that we're going to fold aces in fear of sets?

btw villain's RR on the flop is very dependent on how you're currently running/your cb freq/flow of game/blind steal history between you two

[Subzero_Wins]

You guys say you wanna give them room to "censored" up, but you're just going to end up in an extremely tough spot or losing value when a T, J, Q, K or A peels. That's way too much of the deck.

They really going to screw around on a 69TJ, 69JQ, 69JK, or 68JA board? Are you going to feel good felting on a 69JQ or 69JK board?

And seriously who raises QQ/KK/AJ here and then folds getting 3:1?

[yegon]

My main concern is that this deep he can play any pair for set value profitably and on a low card flop I will have a hard time deciding if he has a set or an overpair. Obviously I can not and probably shouldnot size ma pfr to take away the set odds so how do I go about this possibility?