KK river decision NL50

[lsaw2]

Villain is 42/15/0.5 over 40 hands. Only other hand i've seen him play he limp small raised the CO (AKo) checked behind a medium paired board called a turn bet with a gutshot and overs and checked behind when he hit his K on the river.

My main question is what range do you put him on and do you see any value in putting him in on the river (15$ into a $45 pot)


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($52.50)
SB ($35.50)
BB ($37.45)
Hero ($71.05)
MP ($26.60)
CO ($16.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $4.50.

Turn: ($20.25) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12.

River: ($44.25) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, HERO ??

[doppelganger]

I think the way he played the AK hand you described means his range could be quite wide and includes a lot of aces. I just check the river behind.

Edit: Also I would suspect this guy would happily overplay top pair on this dry flop, so since he's somewhat short stacked I might just commit and 3bet the flop.

[lsaw2]

If you just had the stats and not the hand (I didn't remember the AK hand as I was playing the hand I just looked it up from PT as I couldn't remember what my read for him was) do you think there are any 9's you could get value from and/or what hands could you see him turning up with a 4 with other than A4?

[Harry Fong]

I would check behind villain on the river. Anything but an A on the river and i would consider the push.

[doppelganger]

40 hands is not enough to put any weight on his AF, so I would look to his VPIP and PFR and just assume he's a pretty bad player. However, without the read and just using stats, I would be much more hesitant about committing on the flop, so I would probably just play it as you did, and check the river.

[lsaw2]

Fair enough, I thought it was a bit thin to try to value bet but he just seemed so donkish....

[panda]

Pushing his last $15 is pretty thin, I don't think theres much in whether you do or not.

[kurto]

I was torn... this is the kind of player who will call down very weakly. Then again that board is very coordinated. Straight and 2 pair possibilities...

If he doesn't have an ace, there's even more of chance he folds your value bet... but he'll call with just about anything that beats you.

Check behind is good.

[mackthefork]

I check behind and expect to be good 50% of the time or so.

Mack

[HighOctane]

I would check for value. I think you are behind a set who is letting you bet his hand. He may think the A gave you set/set. Anyway, there just aren't any hands that you beat that he could have played this way. He likely didn't call preflop w/ A5 or 64. It is more like 55. Still the river check OOP is wierd.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
He likely didn't call preflop w/ A5 or 64. It is more like 55. Still the river check OOP is wierd.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 42/15/0.5 over 40 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think people understand what someone who is playing 42% of all hands would show up with.

This person will play ANY 2 suited. And they most CERTAINLY will call with A5 and 46. Honestly, people should take a deck of cards and deal themselves 20 random hands... then pick 9 of them... You have to play a lot of junk to average 42%.

I hate seeing people on these forums discount people calling with junk simply because they wouldn't. But most people on this forum aren't playing 42% of hands and realize what that means.

This player could have nearly any 2 card combination... I would include any ace, any 2 suited (which means any 2 card combination you can name), any connectors, 1 gappers... obviously any pair....

[HighOctane]

I admit that I sometimes project my own standards on to others actions. Great point. But I am not sure that just because a guy plays 42% does not mean he will stack-off with TT here. Also, even loose-bad players usually give you credit for a big overpair when you fire a nice bet on each street and call a raise on the flop. Hero is playing the hand like has AA-QQ, not AK-KQ. The board is dry, hero is saying what he has and villian doesn't seem to care. What range do we assign when someone raises the flop and calls a the turn here. So let's not rely exclusively on stats. We are talking post flop here. What hands play it that way? This is where you need to read the board, your actions, his responses, etc...not just "he plays 42% preflop". By the way, you are right that we should include A5 and 64 into the range. I still think it is a river check.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I admit that I sometimes project my own standards on to others actions. Great point. But I am not sure that just because a guy plays 42% does not mean he will stack-off with TT here. Also, even loose-bad players usually give you credit for a big overpair when you fire a nice bet on each street and call a raise on the flop. Hero is playing the hand like has AA-QQ, not AK-KQ. The board is dry, hero is saying what he has and villian doesn't seem to care. What range do we assign when someone raises the flop and calls a the turn here. So let's not rely exclusively on stats. We are talking post flop here. What hands play it that way? This is where you need to read the board, your actions, his responses, etc...not just "he plays 42% preflop". By the way, you are right that we should include A5 and 64 into the range. I still think it is a river check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this player will stack off with 1010 here or not. (though I stack players like this with hands like mid pair and such quite often. The other night I had a boat on the river and a guy called half his stack with a pocket pair of 2s.)

Keep in mind that while you project your tighter standards onto loose players... some loose players project THEIR loose standards onto other players. So at times, they may decide you have AQ and raise you with their top pair of 9s because they think they have you.

I'm not saying, of course, that this hand is that. Merely that we need to consider that there are players who do this sort of thing all the time.

The villains aggression is fairly low so I would certainly be fearful that we are behind.

Though villains range is wide... as little as top pair, any overpair and, of course, 2 pair and set possibilities.

We still agree that river is check behind.
I think the turn bet got us a cheap river... as played, I probably check behind on the turn and call a reasonable river bet.

[Hail Eris]

I think this is a pretty easy shove. It doesn't matter that his PF range includes any Ax; what matters is which of those hands take this line. His most likely hand is 9x, or maybe something like JJ/TT. I doubt you ever see him flip any Ace except A9, maaaaybe A2/A4.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a pretty easy shove. It doesn't matter that his PF range includes any Ax; what matters is which of those hands take this line. His most likely hand is 9x, or maybe something like JJ/TT. I doubt you ever see him flip any Ace except A9, maaaaybe A2/A4.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not his PF range that troubles me... its that we got minraised by a guy whose aggression is only .5.