50NL - Can I find a fold with AA here?

[thing85]

Villain is 44/20/.56 over a small sample (30 hands)...no other reads.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $59.55
BB: $6.95
UTG: $10.25
MP: $50.50
CO: $59.55
Hero (BTN): $61.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, SB calls $2.25, BB folds, MP calls $2.00

Flop: ($8) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.50</font>, MP calls $1.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $20.00</font>, Hero...?


Considering his very low AF, I can't see why he would come back at me so strong without a set at the least. He's fairly loose, so he could have a wide variety of holdings, but not much that I can beat. He didn't raise in MP, so I doubt he has AA-TT. 88 or 77 is very possible, as is something like T9s. I'm thinking if he has the straight on the flop, he doesn't play it so fast - there really isn't a threat of anything. On the other hand, I'm pretty aggressive, so he may be thinking he can get some action out of me.

The only hand I think we beat here is AJo, but this is very unlikely. Fold? Push? What's my play?

[Harry Fong]

30 hands is not a good sample size to judge AF.

[DarkMagus]

IMO fold, it's not a 3bet pot and you have less than a quarter of your stack in there. There's definitely too many hands that beat you and I can't see many villians playing AA-TT or AJ like that before the flop. There's a few combo draws like JT and 98 that you can beat, just barely but there's just so many hands you are crushed by that I don't see any reason to go broke here.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
30 hands is not a good sample size to judge AF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I could make a better decision if I had more hands...Unfortunately, it's the only information I have and is certainly better than no information. If I could see his hole cards, I'd be in even better shape.

[sholler]

If you have only 30 hands on the guy, you might as well call him an unknown. Against an unknown at 50NL, I felt this all day every day and say thank you when he calls.

Edit: If you're playing this against ThePUSHER or spoonce or CanIsayWanker then maybe I think twice but against an unknown it's +EV to push every time.

[Kasane]

You're smoked here, I think. MP has to know you're strong after you raise the small donk and a call. Nothing does that except an overpair+ here (with rare exceptions). He was sandbagging the first time around, now he pops it with what? AJ? Not enough of his range.

We have almost no outs against even the worst hands in his range on this dry board.

You can thank your lucky stars he didn't raise the first time around because you might have had to pot commit yourself...

[Waingro]

Lol. Villain is obviously slowplaying, but this can be as bad as top pair trapping your AK. You are going to feel like an idiot if villain tables 77, but there is just no way of knowing what a bad player considers the nuts. I felt this.

[thing85]

I folded. Too much flop aggression from him for it to be just top pair.

[Shizzle12345]

SHOVE SHOVE SHOVE IT ALL DAY LONG OH YEAH BABY.

seriously dude its 50NL, shove here. He could play AJ this way, his AF over this sample says jackall and should be completly ignored.

The guy could have KK or QQ here. That he didnt 3bet thta pre says nothing. He could be bluffing here, and he could have a set. But you have aces so you shove.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
You're smoked here, I think. MP has to know you're strong after you raise the small donk and a call. Nothing does that except an overpair+ here (with rare exceptions). He was sandbagging the first time around, now he pops it with what? AJ? Not enough of his range.

We have almost no outs against even the worst hands in his range on this dry board.

You can thank your lucky stars he didn't raise the first time around because you might have had to pot commit yourself...

[/ QUOTE ]

I 100% endorse this post. Saying "its 50nl, i shove evtime here" is ignorant. Your stats, while over a small sample, tell you hes mostly calling, then he reraises you on the flop? Against most of his range youre drawing to a few outs, and yes sometimes hed table AJ but IMO not enough to be +EV to shove here

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... and yes sometimes hed table AJ but IMO not enough to be +EV to shove here

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The range of hands that have you crushed here is much wider than the range that doesn't. This is a good example of a hand where AA is almost always way ahead or way behind.

I honestly don't know how villain could CC a bet on the flop here with the PFR left to act behind. This makes me feel like he flopped the absolute nuts more than a set, although a set and 2p are still in his range.

His 44VPIP is very concerning in this spot, I fold here. Results?

[whyzze]

any time anybody takes this line you basically need top set continue. Definately fold this. Board is way to coordinated on top of sets making up a substantial part of his range.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
any time anybody takes this line you basically need top set continue. Definately fold this. Board is way to coordinated on top of sets making up a substantial part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
with the line he took preflop then flop, i think 910 is more than in his range as well

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
any time anybody takes this line you basically need top set continue. Definately fold this. Board is way to coordinated on top of sets making up a substantial part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
with the line he took preflop then flop, i think 910 is more than in his range as well

[/ QUOTE ]

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
any time anybody takes this line you basically need top set continue. Definately fold this. Board is way to coordinated on top of sets making up a substantial part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
with the line he took preflop then flop, i think 910 is more than in his range as well

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
lol. its early

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... and yes sometimes hed table AJ but IMO not enough to be +EV to shove here

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The range of hands that have you crushed here is much wider than the range that doesn't. This is a good example of a hand where AA is almost always way ahead or way behind.

I honestly don't know how villain could CC a bet on the flop here with the PFR left to act behind. This makes me feel like he flopped the absolute nuts more than a set, although a set and 2p are still in his range.

His 44VPIP is very concerning in this spot, I fold here. Results?

[/ QUOTE ]

I folded. I've lost enough money this month with AA and KK. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... and yes sometimes hed table AJ but IMO not enough to be +EV to shove here

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The range of hands that have you crushed here is much wider than the range that doesn't. This is a good example of a hand where AA is almost always way ahead or way behind.

I honestly don't know how villain could CC a bet on the flop here with the PFR left to act behind. This makes me feel like he flopped the absolute nuts more than a set, although a set and 2p are still in his range.

His 44VPIP is very concerning in this spot, I fold here. Results?

[/ QUOTE ]

I folded. I've lost enough money this month with AA and KK. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm find I go broke with overpairs a lot vs donks when all the money goes in, especially when a seemingly passive player makes a 'please call me 3 bet'. I go broke here but only because I suck at poker and life.

Mack