NL 25 6-max: flush draw + gutshot, how agressive should I be?

[Marc Desjardins]

I'm just coming out of a bad downswing. I've been reading a lot here and watching videos on cardrunners. I read many Pokey post and I'm trying to play a little less agressive preflop. I limp small pocket pair in EP now instead of always raising. I'm also trying limping suited aces in EP instead of folding. Basically, I want to play more smaller pots and hope to hit big.

So, this brings me to this hand. Vilain is 36, 8, 1.69 in 75 hands. He started very loose, won some big pots by sucking out but he's been losing it all back and he plays tighter now.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $3.25
BB: $24.15
Hero (UTG): $33.70
CO: $25.30
BTN: $27.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
Hero calls $0.25, <font color="red">CO raises to $0.50</font>, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.55</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $3.10</font>, 3 folds, Hero...

I think one big leak I use to have was not pushing hard with multi-draws on the flop. But I still have a hard time pulling the trigger in those situations.

What's my line here and why?

Thanks in advance

[CruS]

raise all pocket pairs
don't limp
2 cents

[TheRenaissance]

bet all the chips

[whyzze]

I open with this hand UTG and then try and get it in the flop.

limping this had UTG is -EV long run.

[CruS]

I don't like opening with Axs UTG, at least not all the time.

[TheRenaissance]

I fold preflop usually FWIW.

That said, there is no clear right or wrong way to play this hand preflop. It depends on the table. If you have several very loose passive callstations behind you, who calls way to much preflop and on the flop, limping with speculative hands in EP may be the way to go.

Note that you wont get much respek from your 2p2 smartLAG peers when you do it though.

[Marc Desjardins]

I understand that limping Axs preflop might be -EV... I use to fold that all the time. And I might actually start doing it again.

But in this case, I'm mostly interested in the line I should take after the flop.

Thanks

[Marc Desjardins]

so, no feedback on flop play? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
so, no feedback on flop play? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

i did give you feedbaack on flop play - bet all your chips

[Marc Desjardins]

[ QUOTE ]
i did give you feedbaack on flop play - bet all your chips

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, thanks. But if I go all in for about 20$ more, it's a huge overbet. Am I not giving up just a too much fold equity in there? How deep or how short do we have to be for this shove to be the right/wrong play? Or maybe stack size is irrelevant, it's always a good play since if he calls, it's probably 50-50 or close to it?

I know I have to be agressive in those situations, but I'm trying to understand why.

Thanks

[monkeymaps]

weither to limp/raise/fold Axs and small PPs is very table dependent and I think its kind of a leak to rigidly say you should always raise/fold/limp these hands without taking game flow into account. If you were getting 3bet alot you prob wouldnt want to raise Axs UTG for example.

[doppelganger]

The reason you want to push is that you have almost 50% equity right now, so it's not a tragedy if you get called by a better hand. You want to fold out hands that are beating you right now like A5 and weak Kx hands that are afraid of kicker trouble.

[Antinome]

Nobody wants to comment on his minbet-minraise line?

That's very often a monster. Worse, he only raises 8% (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+), he isn't super aggressive, AND he's 'playing tighter' than he was earlier. Doesn't that often add up to a huge hand (99+,AQs+,AKo,KQs)?

Alright, it might be AQ, 99-QQ (36 Combinations) frustration raising. But a lot of the time it's a hand he'll have a lot of trouble folding... AA,AK,KK,KQ (26 Combinations)

EVpush=(36/62)(2.50+1.55+3.10)+(26/62)((.47)(50.6)-.53(50.6))
=4.15-1.27 = +2.87

But if you call once to hit the turn with 96%+ equity and he has trouble folding those same hands...

EVturn=(.76)(-1.55)+(.26)((4.15)+(26/62)((.96)(50.6)-(.04)(50.6)))
= -1.18+6.13 = +4.95

I'll admit the read on him has to be pretty good that he can't get away from those hands before calling is better, but considering the EV boost, it is worth considering.

If you don't know, pushing is +EV.

[NL Newbie]

Well you need to consider a few factors.

Minraise normally means a great hand, so ill assume that.

Since thats the case and he prob wont fold anyway, i think i prefer a call here.

Its a trade off and i dont think shoving here is bad, i just feel calling maybe better. However theres problesm with each.


The pots small, so winning its not a fantastic result anyway - So shoving in small pots is going to make TPTK and weaker hands fold, so we get called by sets+other storng hands and our equity isnt great.

On the other hand, drawing to such a obvious(FD) draw means our odds of being paid are reduced.

However, id rather get 80% of equity from bets on later streets that say 30-40% of a shove here and thats because theres hardly any dead money.

So imo, draw.
p.s. GSD makes this draw awesome, hes going broke with 2pair/TPTK/sets if that hits and its so hidden!