Could you fold AA?

[pipernga]

Could you ever fold AA in this situation? Villain is a solid player from what I could tell w/ just over 200 hands played with him. Poker tracker has him at 23/17 With only 1.4 flop agg. The stacks are deep.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

villain (SB): $39.90
BB: $18.65
UTG: $26.80
Hero (MP): $48.05
CO: $80.50
BTN: $25.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, villain calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) J/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">villain bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="red">villain raises to $20.25</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $14.25 returned to villain

Pot Size: $14.25 ($0.70 Rake)

[bored]

Yeah, I can fold it.

[Student Caine]

Tough spot with AA.

Given your read (that he is a decent player, but not overly aggressive) and the stack sizes I probably fold here. I am not sure how weak-tight that is, but unless I have some outstanding read here that Villain is capable of this type of play with an overpair or AJ I can't get it in here.

The problem that I have here is that he cannot even be doing this with TP and a FD because the J/images/graemlins/club.gif is on the board.

Will be interesting to see what type of feedback we get from the better players (better than me that is, which is not really tough haha).

[Hail Eris]

I think it's a pretty easy fold. This guy's range is 100% sets and draws that you're flipping with.

[Kasane]

We're not flipping with the draws -- we've got excellent equity against them. Much better than anyone with a draw expects. We're nearly 2-1 faves over the ones we expect.

[viper930]

lol

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
We're not flipping with the draws -- we've got excellent equity against them. Much better than anyone with a draw expects. We're nearly 2-1 faves over the ones we expect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just the draws:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.764% 49.76% 00.00% 1478 0.00 { 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 50.236% 50.24% 00.00% 1492 0.00 { AhAs }

Now the draws and the sets:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.375% 76.37% 00.00% 6805 0.00 { 55, 22, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 23.625% 23.63% 00.00% 2105 0.00 { AhAs }

[Brian O'Nolan]

Given stacks I think I prefer just calling this villain's lead. Certainly making that your standard play is too weak- we are looking to felt this hand against a lot of players, but I think this is a good spot for pot control/reeval turn. Yes there is a FD but really not that draw heavy a board. I think he has a set a ton here- he flatcalled from the SB which weights his range more towards a pair than SC's/suited aces. As played fold and if you are going to raise flop I like a slightly larger ~ potsized raise, maybe to 8 (although that is a lil tricky because quite quickly you get to the point where your raise size has put too much money in the pot for you to fold to a reraise).

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]

Now the draws and the sets:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.375% 76.37% 00.00% 6805 0.00 { 55, 22, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 23.625% 23.63% 00.00% 2105 0.00 { AhAs }

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is too tight. I don't know many 23/17's that would call a raise from the SB with small SCs like 54s.

Edit: Also, would villain lead the flop with his sets? My gut says no, he'll c/r or c/c because you're c-betting the flop 100% of the time.

[TheDoubleA]

Here is my issue with this: what does the villian call here with in the SB and then leads the flop? Whith a flop aggression like that, I can only really see the villian CRing the flop. I cant imagine that a flop is played this aggressive with a set here. I think that AJ or KJ is a much bigger part of his range. I stack off here almost every time.

[Kasane]

yes, someone with those stats is folding pf almost all the draws you've listed. It's not combo draws we're up against, it's Ax draws -- if anything. Villain's probably not just calling with that many Axcc hands either. AQcc+ can be eliminated as well, as this villain would probably be reraising with those. AJcc is out, too.

I'm not saying it's right to call, I'm just saying we're 2-1 against the draws. Sets are the other half of the equation; we're just not flipping with the draws.

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]

This range is too tight. I don't know many 23/17's that would call a raise from the SB with small SCs like 54s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I forgot villain flatcalled OOP. I think that just skews his range way more toward sets though, since his flop aggro is too low to be doing this with a naked flush draw, and he probably 3bets big suited broadways anyway.

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that AJ or KJ is a much bigger part of his range. I stack off here almost every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This villain never has AJ/KJ here.

[TheDoubleA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that AJ or KJ is a much bigger part of his range. I stack off here almost every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This villain never has AJ/KJ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is my issue though, can you see the villian leading with a set here? I almost never see this at these levels.

[Brian O'Nolan]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my issue though, can you see the villian leading with a set here? I almost never see this at these levels.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF, villain seems decent, he can easily play a set fast given deep stacks. Are you just going to blindly shove because people usually don't play sets fast?

[Kasane]

I do at 50NL -- almost every time to an early position raiser. I do this with Ax draws, and sets. Get's the stack or I'm flipping. Heck, first thing I learned in Super System. Doyle called it the strongest play in hold 'em, I think.

I'm not sure it's right at 25NL, however, or common.

Honestly, this might be a fold, though I'm not sure because I don't have access to stove right now. It's so thin though, one way or the other. Thing that might swing this for me is that if villain is better than just kinda loosy and raisy, he's not calling with Axcc in the SB very often -- if at all. From the BB, it'd be an easier call for me.

[DJSHAD0W]

If you are not going to fold AA on this flop, do you ever fold AA on a board where any draw is possible at all?

And I agree with Kasane, seems like a lot of decent players donkbet with a flopped set, expecting the EP raiser to reraise with their big PP and play for stacks that way.

[Jw513]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my issue with this: what does the villian call here with in the SB and then leads the flop? Whith a flop aggression like that, I can only really see the villian CRing the flop. I cant imagine that a flop is played this aggressive with a set here. I think that AJ or KJ is a much bigger part of his range. I stack off here almost every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain won't have AJ/KJ here after 3 betting flop. Its either AQ/AK club suited , or a set. And I think the set is much more likely.

[cb4mvp]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant imagine that a flop is played this aggressive with a set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? You can't see a set being played like this with a flush draw on board and more than 150bb deep? I can. This is probably the way I would play a set here, especially semi deep like this. Fold is fine.

[JoseyWales]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my issue though, can you see the villian leading with a set here? I almost never see this at these levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would lead with a set here hoping to get raised.

As for the hero's play. Difficult spot. With 100 bb stacks I'd probably call this. With this depth I could see myself folding also. Flush draw makes me want to call this, but it looks more like a set to me. Someone suggested just calling on flop. I actually like that line.

[z28dreams]

The real problem is there aren't many combo draws that are available here - 43clubs, but most people with his stats will fold to an EP raise.

You can limit his range based on preflop action if you want, the the bet-3bet line is NOT common from a TAG with just a flush draw. I think he has QJ/KJ/AJ here almost never if your read is right.

Possible hands that villain would 3bet:
22,55,JJ
AKc - maybe
43c - oesfd
5c4c - pair + fd, might call this preflop - other pair+fd options aren't reasonable

pair+flush draw combos are also very unlikely because of the low cards on the board (he's not gonna play

With a 17% PFR, it's also unlikely that he cold called preflop with QQ-AA here.

The real bitch is that because of your raise you're getting 2:1 on this call.

All sets plus 4c3c,4c5c, and AKc
Hand 0: 78.649% 78.61% 00.04% 9339 4.50 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 21.351% 21.31% 00.04% 2532 4.50 { AhAs }

Some more crazy draws thrown in:

Hand 0: 68.482% 68.40% 00.09% 10834 13.50 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, KcQc, QcTc, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 31.518% 31.43% 00.09% 4979 13.50 { AhAs }

So, even with some very unlikely draws thrown in, we're still a 68:31 dog, not even good enough to beat the 2:1 we're being given.

This looks like a fold to me.

[Keitan]

I think this is an easy fold

[Hail Eris]

Fwiw, I play 23/17/2 and the range I stoved is the exact range I would have here. Big suited broadways are 3bet or fold, and if I wanted to take a flop and play back, I would much rather do it with a small SC then Axs. Even if I did make it here with a naked flush draw, I probably wouldn't play it that way without history.

Of course, different people with the same preflop stats might play a different postflop game. But if your villain is trying to felt a naked flush draw here, you'd expect his AF to be higher, wouldn't you?

[Kingz22]

I say he has KK or QQ. Call.
In the words of Sammy Farha,
You have to gamble to win, boys and girls /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[terp]

what the goddamn hell. i keep opening threads in this forum and keep getting tilted.

you'll make more money if you never fold AA and keep getting people to shove flops when you hold it