50nl AQ flops gutshot vs. maniac

[dipstikdave]

how often does villain need to be betting air/draw to make this a good call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($58.25)
Button ($55.70)
SB ($55.45)
BB ($119.65)
UTG ($154.10)
Hero ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $11.

Flop: ($32.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $39.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $32.75 (All-In).

[bsball8806]

what are his stats? I don't really like the 3bet preflop. I don't really see him having anything that you beat other than another AQ that he calls with pf.

i fold this like 100% of the time

[traz]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 5h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.889% 43.89% 00.00% 2607 0.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 56.111% 56.11% 00.00% 3333 0.00 { 22 }

[Micro Donk]

if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[Ramana]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 5h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.889% 43.89% 00.00% 2607 0.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 56.111% 56.11% 00.00% 3333 0.00 { 22 }

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're saying it's an easy call?

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
what are his stats? I don't really like the 3bet preflop. I don't really see him having anything that you beat other than another AQ that he calls with pf.

i fold this like 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't have stats cuz i was at work, but he plays at least 75% of hands and habitually raises or pushes the flop. i believe he has air here a lot, as he has been caught a couple of times already.

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

pf he likes to raise limped pots, but he always just flat calls raises. i thought i would get more value by limp reraising.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

pf he likes to raise limped pots, but he always just flat calls raises. i thought i would get more value by limp reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he does that, then yeah you would probably get more value. does he call shoves really wide pre? im thinking about limp/shoving...

[dipstikdave]

at the time i thought he'd probly fold to a shove, i hadn't seen him all in pf, only on the flop.

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
how often does villain need to be betting air/draw to make this a good call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($58.25)
Button ($55.70)
SB ($55.45)
BB ($119.65)
UTG ($154.10)
Hero ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $11.

Flop: ($32.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $39.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $32.75 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]

can anyone answer my original question? i think villain has air here a lot. pretty sure he has top pair or better almost never when he makes this bet(let's say 10% or less). he might do this with a smaller pair some of the time, but usually he just check calls. the only times he has made a big bet and showed, he was on a bluff(not even a draw).

[DevinLake]

This is pretty ugly hand IMO.

Preflop: What's with the limp? Do you limp a lot? Are you limp/re-raising other speculative hands too? Are you playing so tight you're not getting action? At these stakes is it hard to get action from worse hands by open raising AQo here?

I'm basically never limp re-raising a hand like this. I almost never limp re-raise for one. I'll only do it from the SB against an aggro BB.

If I was going to limp from CO/Button it would be because I think the blinds 3-bet a lot and I don't want to have to call a 3-bet or 4-bet with the hand. So, I'll limp/call, not limp re-raise. However, with AQ, if I think the blinds are 3-betting loosely then I'm more than happy to call a 3-bet or 4-bet it. So, I wouldn't ever limp AQ here.

Now, to the question at hand. It may seem like he would never have TP here and I would agree with different preflop action. But here he can reasonable expect to get called by you with worse hands then TP here, as you've both shown great strength.

He decided to raise you oop and then call the 3-bet. I'd give up on this flop.