Feel like I made a mess of this one.... 50nl JJJ

[ama0330]

Villain is 54/13/1.47 and sucks. No real history, but assume loose passive. He called the flop pretty quick FWIW. I feel like river is a fold, but who takes a different line?


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $9.09
BB: $26.76
UTG: $48.28
Hero (MP): $97.72
CO: $49.00
BTN: $57.32

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3.50</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.75) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, BTN calls $5.00

Turn: ($17.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $2.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($22.75) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $12.00</font>, Hero calls $12.00

Pot Size: $46.75 ($2.33 Rake)

[C4LL4W4Y]

i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

[NL Newbie]

Bet turn every day of the week, then if i getraised ill call to boat if he lets me. If he doesnt, hmm dam maybe i muck.


However i expect AA/KK/TT/AK to raise the turn and 6/6/3/16 combos.

So 15:16 we beat and sometimes AA/KK show more aggro and TT folds so we can prob discount them.

So i bet the turn, and maybe i have to fold to a raise.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what specific hands though? remember he min 3bet me preflop.

[BoozeHound]

I bet flop harder against this guy, like 6, I then bet turn hard also. If checked, crai. Even if it's a bit of an overbet he's calling with 2 pair, flush draws and overpairs, which are a big part of his range I think.

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what specific hands though? remember he min 3bet me preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

SInce he minraises AA TONNES PREFLOP im going broke on the flop and i think the turn is tough since AK can be a minraise too.

[Micro Donk]

i feel like any of his reraising range could still be in the hand...(i put in top 4%, just an estimate, unless u think hes more passive) (adding the river changes the equity down about .2% so nothin much). removing 99 and youre still around 52%

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.027% 44.03% 00.00% 833 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 55.973% 55.97% 00.00% 1059 0.00 { JdJh }

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
i feel like any of his reraising range could still be in the hand...(i put in top 4%, just an estimate, unless u think hes more passive) (adding the river changes the equity down about .2% so nothin much). removing 99 and youre still around 52%

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.027% 44.03% 00.00% 833 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 55.973% 55.97% 00.00% 1059 0.00 { JdJh }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overestimating the times he has 99,TT here. maybe occasionally, but not equally weighted. Here's what I used, FWIW

Board: Qc Jc 5h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.312% 48.31% 00.00% 744 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 51.688% 51.69% 00.00% 796 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JcTc, AKo }

tough to say what an unknown min-raises with, but they seem to like to show up with lots of suited connectors/aces/garbage as well.

[Micro Donk]

i think TT is reasonable given the action. players like him, they dont like folding their pocket pairs on the flop, even with the crappy board. i removed 99 (since i dont think a passive is betting it on the turn) and it still gave around 52% equity...

also, i didnt count on a passive player minraising QJs ot JTs...i thought about adding KQs, but i still wasnt sure if h would minreraise it...he might...but thatd just put the equity up more...

so im certainly never folding to his turn or river bets, just a matter of raising...

[traz]

I see it this way. Villain would play identically with AA/KK/QQ/AK. So with that range alone we're in good shape on the turn. Throw in the fact that this is a 50% vpip donk, and I figure I have more than enough reason to stack off on the turn

[BoozeHound]

traz,
agreed, but what's your plan to get it in. stacks are pretty big, and by river I like our hand a lot less. I want the money in on that turn every time, even with an overbet.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
traz,
agreed, but what's your plan to get it in. stacks are pretty big, and by river I like our hand a lot less. I want the money in on that turn every time, even with an overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

the only hand he could have here that has a FD is AcKc...

by the way i just noticed you put JcTc in your range when Jc is on the board

[Jamougha]

Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]
traz,
agreed, but what's your plan to get it in. stacks are pretty big, and by river I like our hand a lot less. I want the money in on that turn every time, even with an overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably betting. I don't trust a loose-passive donk to get money in the pot for me. As played I'm definitely raising the turn.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[You're No Daisy]

What other hands have you seen villain raise with? Sure he could have re-raised you with AK and turned the nuts, but I doubt it. What's his range here? Let's assume AA-AT, KK-KT, QJ-QT. AQ gives him TPTK, QJ-QT gives villain two pair, and AA-KK gives him an over pair to the board, all of which most fish will take to the bank regardless of the board! I think the mistake you made was not potting the flop and then not shoving the turn. The bet he made was a really weak blocking bet (which I'm sure he has no clue what a blocking bet is)...$2.50 into a $17.75 pot screams of weakness. If you had the nut straight on the turn, wouldn't you put in a pot-sized bet or shove hoping to fold a decent player on a club draw? If this guy sucks, you should have check-raised the turn ALL-IN hoping he calls. Better yet, you probably should have shoved the turn instead of checking.

AC

[Kasane]

I think I like to c/r this flop more than a donk. He's plenty aggressive with 1.5 aggro on a 54vpip -- that's not passive.

I want to get in on the flop, charging the most for his whiffed stuff and getting him to commit right there with the rest before my action dies on the turn. Bet/3bet is good, but I think we can be almost certain that he cbets this flop.

This is a good case where we've got relative position that's kinda sweet because HU he's almost always betting this flop.

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

We charge him more by letting him bet, and then raising. If he checks it back then he probably has at most 4 outs, not a big deal.

[kaz2107]

i cr this flop a ton. but if i lead the flop i am doing so with the intention of firing the turn and river baring the worst turn and river cards hittin or sumtin. he is callin with QQ+ and then AQ all the way to the river. u obv crush this range so fire away.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

then why check turn?

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

then why check turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's the question

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

then why check turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I put him on a much tighter range than you guys have and I felt like I was behind a lot.

edit: fwiw I put him on tt+, AK, AQ

[traz]

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.437% 59.44% 00.00% 1203 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 40.563% 40.56% 00.00% 821 0.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just checkraise the flop and you won't have this problem. yes you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we want to give a free card to someone this passive?

[/ QUOTE ]

then why check turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I put him on a much tighter range than you guys have and I felt like I was behind a lot.

edit: fwiw I put him on tt+, AK, AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

given that range, you still have a nice chunk of equity which makes it a clear v-bet

Board: Qc Jc 5h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.563% 40.56% 00.00% 821 0.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 59.437% 59.44% 00.00% 1203 0.00 { JdJh )

the river makes such a small change that its inconsequential.

[shoxbb6]

I think his min 3-betting range is a lot wider than just TT+,AQo/s+

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his min 3-betting range is a lot wider than just TT+,AQo/s+

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah idk. Ive been thinking about this a little lately, when really passive players just mash the "raise" button. I always seem to find that it means a killer hand, I dunno, maybe its because they all came from limit?

Another thing I've found with loose passives is that its important to consider the dollar value of the bet rather than the size of the bet in relation to the pot, becuase a weak fish is really gonna be thinking "wow $12, thats a lot" rather than "lol I'm giving him such good odds".

Either I'm a nit or I read hands really really well but I was right on the turn, he had AK. On the river I said it to myself 5 times, "he has AK, fold, he has AK fold"... meh. Nit.

[wslee00]

you are insane if you're ever thinking about folding this - you won't believe the stuff you see at showdown sometimes against donks.

[traz]

like I said in my first post, I don't think you're off that with the range. But AA/KK/QQ/AK is a super tight range and even with that you're 43/57 on the turn.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his min 3-betting range is a lot wider than just TT+,AQo/s+

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah idk. Ive been thinking about this a little lately, when really passive players just mash the "raise" button. I always seem to find that it means a killer hand, I dunno, maybe its because they all came from limit?


[/ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of times it'll just mean "ooh, i have two paint cards, lets mash the raise button" or something to that effect. I also think some mid pp's are in his range here, 88-99, maybe 77 but that's more on the fence.

[mackthefork]

I'd have potted the turn, I dunno, I'd be surprised if you didn't call this and get shown AA.

Mack

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah idk. Ive been thinking about this a little lately, when really passive players just mash the "raise" button. I always seem to find that it means a killer hand, I dunno, maybe its because they all came from limit?

[/ QUOTE ]
Since I always come in raising, some villains get tired of it and decide to min-3-bet me with some really trash hands like QTo (and one time with A6o). It definitely depends on villain, so it is good to be cautious first time around, but just be aware that if you're aggro pf, people will catch on and start min-3-betting you with some really trash hands.

[Havok]

I can't tell you how much I hate the weak bet into big pot bet that's just screaming to get raised because its the nuts. You were right to just call the turn. I know how you feel knowing what the other guy has, but still calling because you hate to fold. Repeat after me. I must go with my reads. I must go with my reads. Feel better? Na, but when you fill up on the river and he bets the pot, you push, and knit calls...it almost makes up for losing these kind of hands.

[corsakh]

I like leading monsters only into people who I think are capable of raising a donkbet with a worse hand. Here its not the case. He is probably going to cbet small even if he missed the board completely. And honestly, the only thing that missed this flop is TT /images/graemlins/smile.gif No doubt he is felting AA, KK, AT, any queen and probably even a jack. If he has AK, he is no doubt calling a c/r since he has a monster draw, two overs and well.. an ace and a king /images/graemlins/smile.gif So I definetly go for a c/r, this type of players rarely if ever check a 3bet flop behind. As played turn is the worst card that could hit and I just c/c both streets.

[icheckcallu]

Turn: ($17.75) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

this is atrocious

[Lego05]

Goddamnit....I've read very little of this thread but:

bet the turn. If you check for some reason you are check raising.



Bet the river. Get all-in....damnit.


No [censored] way river is a fold.


This hand is played so sick IMO. (sick being bad as in not played well.)

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($17.75) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

this is atrocious

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing which is atrocious is the quality of your post. Justify your remarks or don't post at all.

[NL Newbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($17.75) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

this is atrocious

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing which is atrocious is the quality of your post. Justify your remarks or don't post at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol amen /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I figure his range is more: JJ+,TcTh,55,AKs,AKo

Since this is the tighest range he could have, we're like 49% equity.

However throw in random donkey hands, the fact AA is heavily weighted(IMO) and we can stack off happily.

Best route? c/r the flop big, shove turn.

He's cbetting tonnes, if he checks he's down to so few outs and we have a 10out redraw and he may check with AA to be fancy anyway.

Thoughts?

[TheDoubleA]

The way thios is played, I think that I would CRAI the turn. I think that you are way ahead here and will get a call.

[NL Newbie]

The way you played it, u gotta bet/all in the turn IMO.

I dont like c/rallin as much since it may scare AA big time so the combos that call are more weighted to sets+what beat you.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]

I figure his range is more: JJ+,TcTh,55,AKs,AKo

Since this is the tighest range he could have, we're like 49% equity.

However throw in random donkey hands, the fact AA is heavily weighted(IMO) and we can stack off happily.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[terp]

what the hell? bet the turn and call a shove asap

I bet around 12.5$ on turn for value and fold to a shove.

Edit: Just noticed it was a 3bet (yuck, at min 3bet pot)

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($17.75) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

this is atrocious

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing which is atrocious is the quality of your post. Justify your remarks or don't post at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you dont know why calling 2.5 on a (17+)huge pot with a set is bad you should quit flaming everyone!

[icheckcallu]

I will tell u why check calling turn is BAD from your villain description you said he was a loose passive. I bet this turn ALWAYS. Villain calls with worst hand all the time. I will stack off if he has QQ


Your mission here is to 3/4 the turn to set up for the river shove not check call his stupid bet.

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like betting the turn, he sucks - he's calling with a lot that you slay there.

[/ QUOTE ]

what specific hands though? remember he min 3bet me preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
you kill AA KK any TT which all in his range. Since hes a loose passive call senter preflop then I am betting this turn ALWAYS. I gladly stack off if he shows atraight! Stop being results oriented

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think his min 3-betting range is a lot wider than just TT+,AQo/s+

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah idk. Ive been thinking about this a little lately, when really passive players just mash the "raise" button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite the result, I'd like to add, that he isn't "really passive". Someone who plays 50+% of his hands and gets his AF total to 1.5 isn't playing passively.
I am tempted to c/r this flop a lot. It was my first thought. The turn bet is so weak that I like raising it up. Obv. the same people who insta-check when they make a big hand bet smallish in the same spot.
On the river I can't let go of my set, although I pretty much hate my hand. I'm not sure if he would play AA, KK, (QQ; edit: fugetabout QQ, my mistake) the same way on the river. If he had one of those hands, he would have been scared already on the turn, hence the small bet. So he probably wouldn't bet the river like this. But this is results oriented thinking. I would need further proof that he overvalues pairs to form an opinion if he would quasi-slowplay a big pair the same way.

[deadmanspoker]

Id bet the pot on the flop.

Thats a very wet board, i want to build the pot and make them pay to draw.

[corsakh]

B/f is not an option on the turn for obvious reasons. And betting is likely to result in villain shoving on either turn or river. Equity is really bad against his all in range here. So pot control looks good.