80NL - gettin MINdonked into all 3 streets??

[BevillTheDevil]

villian is 60/20/4 only 25 hands. No good reads. Wasnt quite sure whatwas best line on river??

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.40/$0.80
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $162
CO: $53.30
Button: $156.80
SB: $131.75
BB: $100.55

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $0.8</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, CO folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif ($42, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $0.8</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $30</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

River: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif ($102.8, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $0.8</font>, Hero ??

[Kasane]

personally, I wimp and just call the river. Villain's range is monsters/draws (that have a minimum of showdown value) and wtf stuff... the last is uncommon enough (like Q7os that calls on river) that I'm just calling. The draws fold and the monsters, of course, reraise you all in.

It's strange, because I'd value bet the river if checked to, and I treat minbets on other streets as if it's a check. But hard experience tells me that a minbet on 3 streets is not worth raising... When called, it's always a better hand.

Man, I wish I knew what was going on in their heads when they do this though.

[traz]

villain's range is absolutely anything, I raise for value against this guy all day

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
villain's range is absolutely anything, I raise for value against this guy all day

[/ QUOTE ]

weak TP is definitely in the range, I raise. If its weak 2 pair props.

[Kasane]

Guys, theory is fine, and I absolutely 100% agree in theory to raising here -- but damn, I don't think I've ever, ever, ever been good here in practice when I've raised with a 1 pair hand and been called.

Not ever, not once -- just never. Okay, maaaaaybe once.... but it's happened a gazillion times...

[TheDoubleA]

[ QUOTE ]
River: 4 ($102.8, 2 players)
SB bets $0.8, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that had to make you puke just a bit. After 2 good raises, he does it again? I think you just have to call and then punch yourself in the face when he tables Q4o.

[JimboNYY24]

I would just pretend he checked and value bet.

[Daniel LeClaire]

Min raise! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
Min raise! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Winnah!

[huhwhatyousay?]

I'd raise here all day vs. a 60 VP$IP. Make it $62. An overpair here vs. this guy's range is probably analogous to a set of fives or something vs. a "normal" player's range.

[monkover]

yeah i think harris is right here. you have to rais b/c weak tp are a majority of his range although you can really narrow it down a lot.

[Ramana]

[ QUOTE ]
Min raise! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
ldo

looks like someone wants to get dragged to valuetown, make it half pot or something...

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.889% 83.84% 00.05% 830 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 16.111% 16.06% 00.05% 159 0.50 { random }

[Kasane]

Results please...

I repeat, despite villain's stats, despite the idiocy of the bets, despite the value of our hand -- we're almost never ahead here when a raise is called (we're ahead a good bit though.)

I've been here so many times, and I've raised so many times in this spot only to be shocked by... by whatever the eff it is.

[traz]

you're wrong

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
you're wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfectly willing to admit it... if I am. And up until a certain point, I would totally, 100% be on your side and say raise it up. It makes sense to raise it. It's logical, it's good poker, it's fundamentally correct, theory is right....

I'm not arguing any of that at all. I'm just saying, this is one of the very, very few cases where experience tells me I'm usually ahead of villain -- but not if he calls, and we have to be ahead of 50% of villain's calling range for the bet to be profitable(correct me if I'm wrong here), not his range. I'm not even considering the case where he could reraise.

I'm totally with you though -- I could be wrong because I don't have a large enough sample of hands like this on my own.

[hitch1978]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Min raise! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
ldo

looks like someone wants to get dragged to valuetown, make it half pot or something...

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.889% 83.84% 00.05% 830 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 16.111% 16.06% 00.05% 159 0.50 { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not against a random hand here.

The way the hand plays out, villain is not expecting us to fold? Anyone disagree with that statement? So he has top pair AS A MINIMUM.

What do we do if he pushes?

I call.

[BevillTheDevil]

so how much do you guys raise (that advocate it)??? say you raise to around 1/2ish PSB and he pushs whats your action then??

[Jamougha]

He is a moron, and he almost never has a strong hand. Raise.

[kaz2107]

u guys r lookin at this the wrong way. obv we r ahead of villians range on the river. but are we ahead of his CALLING RANGE!?!?!?!? we will b making a HUGE bet on the river so is villian capable of calling a big river raise after we have raised the flop and turn big amounts?!?!? i think his range weighs HEAVILY on the river to either trash TPMK/missed FD or w/e and then monsters. that is a range where raising is terrible. i think a call on the river is better.

[shoxbb6]

treat it as a check and bet however much you'd normally value bet here.

[Khumalo]

My action on each street versus villain:
Flop: Raise pot.
Turn: Raise pot.
River: Shove.

I don't care what his calling range on the river is. I am wired at this point to loathe serial min-donkers, and a guy brilliant or lucky enough use such a line against me on three streets with an overpair killer deserves to double through. I'll even send him flowers if he supplies an address.

By the way, this means I've tried this before and been called with Q7o type stuff. Multiple times! LOLZ.

[BevillTheDevil]

*this is from a PM to kasane...

well i almost time banked it. I wanted to just call but then I talked myself into "well im losing value from Qx" figured any raise was goin to be a large amount so i just pushed, villian calls w/ 67 for the nut straight. My line screamed monster until the river which didnt really matter cause this type of villian has no idea. But even tho villian sucks, afterwards i thought...given the action and all there arent many hands that are goin to call a shove 200BB deep that i beat!!(and a value bet is going to be huge). I shouldve known this b/c most of my experience comes from deep stack poker until recently. Gettin in 200BB deep in most cases (but obv not all) w/ 1 pair, like this hand, you are almost never ahead. Kinda weird cause if he doesnt make the donk bet i see myself value bettin like 1/2 PSB but if he pushs im pretty much NEVER ahead. After talkn to Kaz about it i realized the pot is so big by the river and given the stack sizes a check behind is good (callin in this case).

[traz]

Pushing is vastly different from raising to 45

[ama0330]

gg villain! xpert turn play!

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
villain's range is absolutely anything, I raise for value against this guy all day

[/ QUOTE ]

I see FD a lot here, could have made 2 pairs but I might raise river too.

Like this hand, obv I seen the results now, but i see this bet low call big pattern a lot with erm gentleman callers drawing.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

UTG ($49.75)
MP ($26.05)
Hero ($49.25)
SB ($49.20)
BB ($52.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP posts a blind of $0.75.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, BB calls $15.

Turn: ($38) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30.75 (All-In)</font>, BB calls $30.75.

River: ($99.50) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $99.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has 4s Qs (flush, king high).
Hero has 8c Kc (two pair, kings and eights).
Outcome: BB wins $99.50. </font>

Regards Mack

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is vastly different from raising to 45

[/ QUOTE ]

so you like a 1/2ish PSB and fold to a shove?? cause if villian shoves now i think there is no way we are ahead. I dunno we have less than PSB left and even a river value bet is goin to be rather large and given that action i dunno if many 1 pair hands are callin. 100BB deep insta gettin AI tho.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
Gettin in 200BB deep in most cases (but obv not all) w/ 1 pair, like this hand, you are almost never ahead

[/ QUOTE ]
You should never be thinking in terms of your hand value and then assign a pot size that each hand is worth. The only thing that should enter your mind on this river is your hand versus villains hand range/calling range and if you are ahead of that range, you need to bet 100% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
But even tho villian sucks, afterwards i thought...given the action and all there arent many hands that are goin to call a shove 200BB deep that i beat!!(

[/ QUOTE ]You say villain sucks, but you aren't sure there are many worse hands he'll call with? There are plenty, the fact that he has called big bets on 2 streets means he at least likes his hand or is attached to it someway. Also, 200bb is nothing in this game, it's the max buy-in so treat it as such, same as 100bb in a 50nl game.

[ QUOTE ]
Kinda weird cause if he doesnt make the donk bet i see myself value bettin like 1/2 PSB but if he pushs im pretty much NEVER ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]Donk bets are meaningless, and you should treat them as checks. Even if you look at the results and know he's capable of donking the previous streets with something like 67 then he is just as capable of donking with spades or a bare Q.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
I see FD a lot here, could have made 2 pairs but I might raise river too.

Like this hand, obv I seen the results now, but i see this bet low call big pattern a lot with erm gentleman callers drawing.

[/ QUOTE ]

In your example villian bets larger than pot on flop and gets it AI on the turn...completely different.

My hand guy donks/calls flop and turn which IMO screams some type of draw. And certainly villian isnt callin a river raise on a missed draw.

[mackthefork]

Yeah I agree, if you think he's smart enough to do the folding thing with FD that made a poor one pair hand, then it's a call, but a lot of them will call with those hands.

Mack

[BevillTheDevil]

shox It sounds like you are sayin the stack sizes shouldnt even be takin into consideration?? good players shouldnt think of spots as "money" but unfortunately your opponents do and are less likely to call here IMO w/ a 1 pair b/c of how expensive it is...and you say 200BB is nothing in this game?? I have to totally disagree, its completely different than the typical 100BB NL. Ive played over 120k (yes not a whole lot) hands at deep stack poker and it plays soo much different than 100BB NL.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
shox It sounds like you are sayin the stack sizes shouldnt even be takin into consideration?? good players shouldnt think of spots as "money" but unfortunately your opponents do and are less likely to call here IMO w/ a 1 pair b/c of how expensive it is...and you say 200BB is nothing in this game?? I have to totally disagree, its completely different than the typical 100BB NL. Ive played over 120k (yes not a whole lot) hands at deep stack poker and it plays soo much different than 100BB NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should think in terms of ranges and EV, if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet, then bet and don't worry about stack sizes.
Yes, the game plays differently but the fish in this game still suck just as they do, and I doubt a 65/20 or w/e his stats are is taking into consideration that he's playing with 200bb, the only thing he's thinking of that it only takes one click to reload his stack if he loses this hand.

[BevillTheDevil]

Im obv ahead of his range...but IMO not ahead of his callin range based on pot/stack sizes so yes they do play a factor and you should be thinkin about this ALWAYS.

for example if we r playin against a villian. and we know he has 4 specific hands on the river. 3 of them r busted draws/weak hands. the 4th is the nuts. welp sure enough we r 75% against his range. according to ur theory we should over shove the flop because "if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet"

ur showing a complete lack of understandin here. it doesnt matter wut his river range is. ALL THAT MATTERS IS HIS CALLING RANGE.

my point is that i think his calling range is rather narrow due to the flop and turn action as well as how big of a bet the river is. thus forcing him to fold hands such as QJ and KQ on the river. i have shown nothing but strength and villian can pick up that at least a bit. we really dont beat much that he calls with imo thus betting is -EV

[wslee00]

the 200bb definitely matters - i feel you actually have to play tighter since you now have 200bb behind. It's kind of analogous to limit where if the cap is 4 bets, there's actually a lot more action than at a room where the cap is 5 bets b/c people will just put in that 4th raise since they know it's the last one.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
Im obv ahead of his range...but IMO not ahead of his callin range based on pot/stack sizes so yes they do play a factor and you should be thinkin about this ALWAYS.

for example if we r playin against a villian. and we know he has 4 specific hands on the river. 3 of them r busted draws/weak hands. the 4th is the nuts. welp sure enough we r 75% against his range. according to ur theory we should over shove the flop because "if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet"

ur showing a complete lack of understandin here. it doesnt matter wut his river range is. ALL THAT MATTERS IS HIS CALLING RANGE.

my point is that i think his calling range is rather narrow due to the flop and turn action as well as how big of a bet the river is. thus forcing him to fold hands such as QJ and KQ on the river. i have shown nothing but strength and villian can pick up that at least a bit. we really dont beat much that he calls with imo thus betting is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]
And you're showing a complete lack of reading comprehension. In my second post in this thread, I specifically mentioned calling ranges. And I don't think at all for a second that villain will fold hands like KQ/AQ/QJ here if he were to donk then call the previously two streets, especially when spades miss on the river.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
Donk bets are meaningless, and you should treat them as checks. Even if you look at the results and know he's capable of donking the previous streets with something like 67 then he is just as capable of donking with spades or a bare Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree here, and it's my main point.

Donk bets are meaningless in isolation on any street. Yes. Donk bets on all three streets that result in a hefty raise each and every time are not. Villain has a significant pattern to work with. You raised his first donk. You raised his second donk. You will probably raise his 3rd one. Thus it has a higher probability than a usual donk of being intended to induce a raise!

Also, being on the river, it can't be meant to allow villain to draw cheaply. A min-donk can mean a lot of things on the flop or turn, one of the major ones being that it is there to allow the donker to draw cheaply. On the river, this just isn't the case. Therefore it has to be either a hand that wants a cheap showdown, or a raise inducer -- but it no longer is a cheap draw attempt as it is on the flop or turn.

Take these two things together, and a donk on the river is different.

[shoxbb6]

I don't think a 65/20 ever comes close to thinking beyond the first level, let alone on that level of metagame, the "he thinks, i thinks....." stuff.

[DarkMagus]

If villian can be holding any pair, any 2 spades, or any straight draw on the flop, as well as any ace high, we're ahead of 77% of his range on the river



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

607 games 0.005 secs 121,400 games/sec

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.512% 77.43% 00.08% 470 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 22.488% 22.41% 00.08% 136 0.50 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, K5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q2s+, J8s+, Js7s, Js6s, J5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, T8s+, Ts7s, Ts6s, T5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 95s+, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 82s+, 74s+, 7s3s, 7s2s, 64s+, 6s3s, 6s2s, 52s+, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, A2o+, KQo, K8o, K5o, Q2o+, J8o, J5o, T8o, T5o, 98o, 95o, 82o+, 75o+, 65o, 52o+ }

[Kasane]

How many times does this have to be said? It doesn't matter if we're ahead of his range. It is obvious to everyone we're ahead of his range that gets to the river.

It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.

Stupid draws that hit 2pr and fear the set will still call -- we don't beat that. Monsters that intend to induce a raise will not call -- they'll reraise.

There are a couple Qx hands that might, just might call if he's a massive station. Certainly some evidence of that, but I don't think it makes up 50% of his calling/raising range. Draws that missed are absolutely irrelevant unless he'll bluff raise them after the min-raise, but that's just too odd and convoluted to discuss here.

[DarkMagus]

I know but he may call with a lot of his pairs if we make a smallish raise to $50.

Even still I agree the value of the raise is marginal, and a lot of bad villians love to check raise the river when they hit. I'd rather not risk a raise (or call from a low 2 pair hand) until we've seen the villian call large river bets with very bad hands.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
How many times does this have to be said? It doesn't matter if we're ahead of his range. It is obvious to everyone we're ahead of his range that gets to the river.

It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.

Stupid draws that hit 2pr and fear the set will still call -- we don't beat that. Monsters that intend to induce a raise will not call -- they'll reraise.

There are a couple Qx hands that might, just might call if he's a massive station. Certainly some evidence of that, but I don't think it makes up 50% of his calling/raising range. Draws that missed are absolutely irrelevant unless he'll bluff raise them after the min-raise, but that's just too odd and convoluted to discuss here.

[/ QUOTE ]thank god some one is lookin at this the right way. i really see practically 0 value from raising the river here being this deep. that seems pretty spewy to me. he just doesnt call off with enough hands that we beat to make up for the random 2p+ hands that he shows up with on the river

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, if he has Qx he's obviously donking the flop and turn and calling big bets then donk/folding when the most obvious draw misses.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, if he has Qx he's obviously donking the flop and turn and calling big bets then donk/folding when the most obvious draw misses.

[/ QUOTE ]ok heres my task i want to ask u. pokerstove a CALLING RANGE for villian and post it on here. id love to see how u can get 50% equity agaqinst it. if u dont have pokerstove go dl it and lets see. im 100% u cant make a logical one.

[shoxbb6]

Board: Qs 5s 8c 4c 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.308% 42.31% 00.00% 132 0.00 { 88, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, 76s, AQo, KQo, QJo, 76o }
Hand 1: 57.692% 57.69% 00.00% 180 0.00 { KK }

Personally, If i could weight it, 55/88 would be a very small % of possible hands.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]

Board: Qs 5s 8c 4c 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.308% 42.31% 00.00% 132 0.00 { 88, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, 76s, AQo, KQo, QJo, 76o }
Hand 1: 57.692% 57.69% 00.00% 180 0.00 { KK }

Personally, If i could weight it, 55/88 would be a very small % of possible hands.

[/ QUOTE ]he deff is capable of having n e 2 pair combo on the flop as well as turning a 2 pair combo. he calls preflop with Q8, Q5, and 85. he can also have AA or QQ.

[BevillTheDevil]

123 games 0.005 secs 24,600 games/sec

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.057% 40.65% 00.41% 50 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 58.943% 58.54% 00.41% 72 0.50 { AcAd, AhAs, KK-QQ, 88, 55, AQs, KQs, Q7s+, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, 85s, 76s, AQo, KQo, QdJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QTo-Q8o, Q5o-Q4o, Q2o, 85o, 76o }

This is the widest callin range that i could think of AND I MEAN WIDEST

IMO here is is callin range...


103 games 0.005 secs 20,600 games/sec

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.612% 29.13% 00.49% 30 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 70.388% 69.90% 00.49% 72 0.50 { AcAd, AhAs, KK-QQ, 88, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q8s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, 85s, 76s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q8o, Q5o-Q4o, Q2o, 85o, 76o }

And I think QJ is close...

[shoxbb6]

He'll call down 2 large bets with Q2o but he won't call one more big bet with those? That doesn't make sense to me.
Also, I think AA/KK/QQ/55/88 are a very, very small percentage of his range.

[BevillTheDevil]

ok take out Q2, we are still only like a 33% fav...even tho I completely disagree w/ you, I really do appreicate/respect your input/opinions, but neither 1 of us are going to change our minds so im done lol.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll call down 2 large bets with Q2o but he won't call one more big bet with those? That doesn't make sense to me.
Also, I think AA/KK/QQ/55/88 are a very, very small percentage of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]he calls a flop bet with TP which is wut retards do. now he hits 2 pair on the turn. he is obv calling the turn now. that is not a stretch at all. and i dont see why he cant have AA or QQ here. passive moron. i have still yet to see a normal range that makes this a bet.

[Havok]

LMAO!!!!! Sorry. I think I just call the river cause you can't fold, but what the hell is he calling the second raise on the turn with. He's either and idiot, or your way behind. I've seen this line with good players. Just call the river.

[Havok]

My thoughts exactly, and it pisses them off like you don't believe to lose on a value bet after making a big hand. Reverse tilt for winning a smaller pot than they could have won. AAAAHHHH bitter revenge.