Ace high flush facing a shove, deep

[AZplaya]

Villian is 15/7 over about a thousand hands, mult-tabling nit.

Blinds $.15/.30

Hero - $110
Villian - covers

Hero is BB with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $.30, CO folds, Button calls $.30, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Pot: $1.05

Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Pot - $1.05

<font color="red">Hero bets $1 </font> , UTG folds, Button calls

River: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Pot: $2.85

<font color="red">Hero bets $2 , Button raises to $5, Hero raises to $12, Button raises all in to $128.50 </font>, Hero pukes and ???

I raised small on the river hoping he would call with the Jack or 10, but wtf?
Can't believe I'm considering folding, but can I really expect to be good here?

[faarcyde]

Uh, you lose to exactly one hand. Are you serious?

[Pokerdemic]

I think if he hit an oesfd on the turn he would have raised. But I can't imagine what he has that he wants to get his stack in on this board.

[simple1248]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, you lose to exactly one hand. Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

Threads like this and and that one about folding 2nd set on a drawless board are about to make my head explode.

[BevillTheDevil]

so villian seems pretty nitty. From a typical nit the river raise screams I HAVE TEH NUTZ (or close to it). But can we really put this guy on 1 hand?? 1st. what does villians pf limp mean?? From my experience this type of player is limpin SCs, small-mid PP, AJ/AQ sometimes, every once in a while suited 1 gappers and offsuit connectors but IMO def at the very very bottom of this guys range. Soo what could villian have post. Sets, KQ really only 2 pair that makes since. Does this villian semibluff the river this weak w/ those hands hopin you fold like J high flush or somethin?? I dont think so. Could he raise w/ a J high flush, possibly but if he is any good nad plays a lot w/ AZ then that again is a semibluff/ no value play. T high flush and lower IMO are not raisin the river and def are not goin to call a 3bet. So IMO it comes down to him callin a 3bet on river w/ a J high flush...but what Jxs hands are in this guys range?? AJ,KJ,QJ,J9 NOPE...that leaves JTs. Really what other Jx hand is a 15/7 limpin OTB??

I think villian will OCCASIONALLY semibluff the river w/ some hands like i mentioned above but is he callin a 3bet w/ anything we beat?? I cant think of a single hand...I call after he makes the 1st raise.

EDIT: also knowin how aggro the villian is would help some

[faarcyde]

another thing to consider here is the villain might have made a flush on the turn, and it is possible there is a little siren above his head going "ALL IN CHOO CHOO" no matter what the river card is. So one percent of the time he has JTs, twenty percent of the time he is an idiot with a jack, and the other 79 percent of the time he is bluffing.

[highsteptd]

feeling of losing to straight flush &gt; feeling of folding A-high flush and always wondering.

There's no way you fold here, how can you live with yourself wondering what he could have had? $128 you can make back eventually

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
So one percent of the time he has JTs, twenty percent of the time he is an idiot with a jack, and the other 79 percent of the time he is bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

where do you come up w/ these %s?? Id like u to tell me the 21% Jx hands he has here???

u really think a NIT is bluffin all that often??

From my experience w/ AZ he isnt a LAGtard that is raisin the river here w/ air and he isnt a nit that only calls w/ teh nutz.

[faarcyde]

I was pulling those numbers straight from my bum, my point is just call.

[Hail Eris]

He has JTdd 100% of the time. I fold this pretty quick, and I'm definitely not "wondering what he had".

[TheDoubleA]

[ QUOTE ]
He has JTdd 100% of the time. I fold this pretty quick, and I'm definitely not "wondering what he had".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this is taking nittyness to a whole new level.

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has JTdd 100% of the time. I fold this pretty quick, and I'm definitely not "wondering what he had".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this is taking nittyness to a whole new level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think calling here is a great example of 0 level thinking.

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, you lose to exactly one hand. Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you seriously don't think there is any merit to discuss wether folding the 2nd nuts to a 300BB river 4 bet the right play in this spot.

[highsteptd]

If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[Spurious]

i'd fold, it's highly likely that he got JT...


LOL

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me you're kidding. This board is nothing like an unpaired 4flush board.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

lol you cant even compare this 2 the hand in disscussion.

[Micro Donk]

i really cant see him playing JTdd like this, and if he did, ill make a note. but im never folding, and ill make a post in uNL BBV about my cooler if he indeed has it

[highsteptd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me you're kidding. This board is nothing like an unpaired 4flush board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not kidding. The point is that you have the 2nd nuts, and the only way you're beat is if villain has 2 big suited connectors. What difference does it make if it's quads or an A-high flush, you have the 2nd nuts vs. the possible nuts. There's no way you can fold.

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me you're kidding. This board is nothing like an unpaired 4flush board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not kidding. The point is that you have the 2nd nuts, and the only way you're beat is if villain has 2 big suited connectors. What difference does it make if it's quads or an A-high flush, you have the 2nd nuts vs. the possible nuts. There's no way you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that you need to think about villain's hand instead of just your own.

[BevillTheDevil]

well 1st off it would be a raised pot, 2nd off villians range would be completely different, 3rd a nit is less likely to call w/ FD on paired board, 4th nit probably folds QJs pf to a raise etc etc...TOTALLY different situation.

but anways who cares about that, ive yet to hear someone put villian on a range...

[highsteptd]

fair enough. I still don't think you can fold there, esp with villain playing the turn like that.

[Kasane]

There's a biiiig difference between those hands.

In the 4 aces one, there are a couple of other hands that might go broke there: other boats definitely, and true donks will with a Qdxd. Betting pattern would make a difference too.

In OP's example, does anyone -- barring a misclick or a serious problems with their sight or mind -- push this with the second nuts?

On the other hand, I've misclicked or misread a board when tired more often than I've hit a royal flush....

And villain's play makes perfect sense for JTdd, for a nit.

[wingchunflush]

I am calling here, you can make the money back.

[Hail Eris]

To the people advocating a call, would you please explain what hand you expect a 15/7 microstakes multitabler to showdown when almost 4 stacks go in after a river 4bet on this board?

[Spurious]

J of diamonds.
i dont know, i still call here

[terp]

i would muck

[JimboNYY24]

This is so sick, and you are probably never good here. I still call anyway and then quit poker for the 8th time. Maybe you can argue that just calling his raise on the river thinking that a multitabling nit will never call with a worse hand, but maybe I'm taking it too far now. If you folded I think this is not a bad play at all.

[faarcyde]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has JTdd 100% of the time. I fold this pretty quick, and I'm definitely not "wondering what he had".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this is taking nittyness to a whole new level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think calling here is a great example of 0 level thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think not calling here is overthinking, too each his own.

[highsteptd]

the suspense is killing me

[illegit]

Yeah, pretty easy lay down. What can you beat? A misclick and... nothing else. And misclick shoves are pretty impossible.

[Some9]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, pretty easy lay down. What can you beat? A misclick and... nothing else. And misclick shoves are pretty impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah only random tilt vs reasonable 4bet river shove with nuts.

300BB deep this is a fold.

this whole 2nd-nuts discussion is pretty pointless. He is telling us his hand so why would we not believe a nit who shoves 300BB??

[shoxbb6]

I'd rather just call the raise from the villain, tight, multitabling nits won't often pay off a 3bet here with a bare J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[traz]

This is not an instacall by any means. This is JdTd so often that it's sick. Butttt at micro stakes I find it really hard to fold the A high flush. I probably fold and just forget about it. The reason I would think about calling is that at these levels there's always at least a 10% chance that villain is doing something retarded. But if you have 1k hands on the guy and he's tight overall, folding is fine.

Edited :P

[monkover]

[censored] this hand really is sick and i don´t think i could really fold this playing but looking at i now it prob really is a fold... but at micros it just as taz said people do retarded [censored]..

[orange]

i dont really know. i'm pretty sure i wouldnt be able to fold this hand but mmmm.

[hitch1978]

If we are *gonna* fold the river with second nuts, why would villain make this move with a hand he desperately wants paid off?

Just a thought. I am not gonna suggest a range excluding the SF just to be shot down, just seems like the size of the bet would skew his range back away from the nuts here to me.

[traz]

villains overshove for value all the time

[mackthefork]

I honestly can't imagine this player doing this with anything other than JTd.

Mack

[JimboNYY24]

[ QUOTE ]
If we are *gonna* fold the river with second nuts, why would villain make this move with a hand he desperately wants paid off?

Just a thought. I am not gonna suggest a range excluding the SF just to be shot down, just seems like the size of the bet would skew his range back away from the nuts here to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really wrong. He shoves because he's trying to get maximum value from the Ace of diamonds which as you can see is really hard to laydown.

[hitch1978]

[ QUOTE ]
villains overshove for value all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

What is it about villain that tells us this?

I am new here, is it something about the 'nit' tag? What does that actually mean, just trying to learn.

Just to give you a frame of reference, even tight players in my 'inside my head virtual world' where I put opponents on ranges do this (rarely) with less than the nuts.

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]

Just to give you a frame of reference, even tight players in my 'inside my head virtual world' where I put opponents on ranges do this (rarely) with less than the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why we know he has the nuts. Just in general, there are a lot of villains who overbet with monsters, praying to get called

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

No its not because villian can put hero on a number of hands when he 3 bets, but in the case of the OP, villain is a strong player who doesnt have a habit of doing silly stuff, and villain can only put hero on naked ace for the flush, so the push means he always has it.

Mack

[BevillTheDevil]

FINALLY!!! some post from ppl that can actually think.

[TheBad]

Ok, let´s say he has the the Jd 30%, JdTd 40% and is on a bluff 30% (including 2d-10d). Easy fold, considering the Odds.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let´s say he has the the Jd 30%, JdTd 40% and is on a bluff 30% (including 2d-10d). Easy fold, considering the Odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously the Jd is a bluff, he never has it, think about it.

Mack

[hitch1978]

Thankyou.

I don't mind admitting that at the table I call, but I will go over this thread again now and try and take it all in.

[hitch1978]

Slightly OT Question - Is villains bet 'correct' With the nuts?

[mackthefork]

Quick survey of this thread suggests a yes.

Mack

[bozzer]

i don't think villain does this with a hand we beat often enough to call even though those hands are much more common.

[kaz2107]

alright well ive talked with bevil bout this for about half an hour or so. heres my thinking.

we lose to EXACTLY ONE HAND COMBINATION. (thats my first argument for calling)

also assuming this guy knows wut he is doin (which is wut we HAVE to do in order to find a fols here) why in the [censored] would he smooth call behind on the turn with JTdd. that is pretty terrible imo. so imo that REALLY hampers the likelyness of him having JTdd here.

givin those two points i think it is just as likely that he...

a. misclick shoved (he is a multitabler)
b. misread the board/his hand (again he is a multitabler)
c. is tilting hardcore
d. just goin carazy and makin a nutzo bluff because he knows AZ is solid and capable of makin big folds and really can only call with JTdd and then possibly Ad

giving all that u add in that maybe he does in fact just suck or sumtin i cant fathom a fold. i think it would b ubber close if he had made it 4 or sumtin on the turn. but given he smooth called behind i cant imagine he has JTdd all that often. i just cant see folding to 1 hand combination that would have had to show up on the river as a misplay.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Slightly OT Question - Is villains bet 'correct' With the nuts?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes and no. Assuming villian has JTd he should be raising the turn everytime. IF villian has JTd the river is played perfect cause AZ's line screams "I have Ad" which even a good 30NLer is never foldin here.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let´s say he has the the Jd 30%, JdTd 40% and is on a bluff 30% (including 2d-10d). Easy fold, considering the Odds.

[/ QUOTE ]this post and the one guy who posts a made up hand are two of the worst posts i have seen in my 2p2 career

[Jamougha]

This is a really easy fold.

[Gigglegirl]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


Its a clear fold.
With just the 9dQdKd out there its a tough one but with 4 diamonds out there, the cards are face up. Some people are just refusing to look.
The only hand you're beating here is a misclick.
To the people that are advocating a call here, what would you do if Villain re-raises river to $36? Shove?
Good luck in your poker careers.

[ama0330]

I'd call just so I could post it in BBV

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call just so I could post it in BBV

[/ QUOTE ]thats only because u r the one who started the thread /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call just so I could post it in BBV

[/ QUOTE ]thats only because u r the one who started the thread /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

no no, i mean the REAL bbv - the big boys bbv /images/graemlins/laugh.gif




RESULTS COS WE ALL KNOW YOU CALLED

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
If you held A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

And the board was: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

would you fold a 300BB 4bet?

It's pretty much the same worry, an quad aces would still be 2nd nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO at 6 cards on the board.

LMAO at no one pointing it out sooner.


We're missing information. What's his postflop AF? Any history? Any sort of read? I'd like to say snapcall, but that would be wrong. I'd like to say easy fold, but that would be wrong. It is easy to level yourself during a hand such as this one.

I'd have a hard time folding, but losing your stack with the 2nd nuts over a small pot would be brutal.

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
RESULTS COS WE ALL KNOW YOU CALLED

[/ QUOTE ]
I convinced myself that this was a poorly played set or something like J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJx and called. He off course flipped J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I asked him why he didn't raise when he turned the flush and he said he was worried I had the K or A high flush. lolnitaments.

[wooziephantom]

I can't believe the people saying that this is an insta-call, u've made clear to him what u have and he push another hundred and twenty in to the middle and everybody saying easy call? I think it's rubbish and see it as a easy fold

[Upgrade_U]

Didn't read any previous posts and I call it all day, you can't fold A high flush on a non-paired board just because a two-card straight flush is out, EVER

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't read any previous posts and I call it all day, you can't fold A high flush on a non-paired board just because a two-card straight flush is out, EVER

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, you can when

a) you have made it clear to villian what you have

b) villian knowing this pushes

c) villian is not an idiot

d) river bet is huge in relation to pot

e) there are 4 diamonds out lol, call this if you have A3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, on a K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif board.

Regards Mack

[ama0330]

RESULTS

[mackthefork]

He posted them, he called which is awful, and villian had JT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Mack

[Gigglegirl]

The people who call this clearly have a big leak.
THIS IS NOT A COOLER, THIS IS SPEW.
Yes this hand is a freak and you may never get a hand like it again but it really is very simple.
Lets translate the river action in English.
Hero bets = I have flush.
Villain raises = So do I.
Hero re-raises = Aha but I have nut flush.
Villain goes all in = I beat that.

Its absolute hand strength versus relative hand strength.
Once Hero re-raises, he turns his hand face up. Villain KNOWS Hero has the nut flush, he simply doesn't care.
If you think a decent 15/7 multitabling nit, at these limits, is capable of trying to make a decent player fold the Ad here without having the straight flush, you're living in dreamland.

[alexDJI]

[ QUOTE ]
He posted them, he called which is awful, and villian had JT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

saying calling this is awful is just NOT true.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He posted them, he called which is awful, and villian had JT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

saying calling this is awful is just NOT true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Erm sorry yes it is, it's a fishy as calling a push with 22 cos you got the 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, you are just never good 0%.

Mack

[kylephilly]

insta-callz that shiz

I've seen the results don't care

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He posted them, he called which is awful, and villian had JT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

saying calling this is awful is just NOT true.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes it is. Calling this is awful.

I find this thread to be absolutely unbelievable to be honest. All this talk about he'd never play JTdd like this and his range and we only lose to one combo out of a million blah blah blah. All this is totally irrelevant, or at best of minuscule importance placed beside the major piece of information we have - villain's bet. This is the easiest fold ever.

Getting stacked here in this tiny pot to this action is absolutely unforgivable.

[kylephilly]

Any time there is a straight flush draw possibility on the board I am insta-shoving river and watching you nits fold the 2nd nuts

[traz]

[ QUOTE ]
Any time there is a straight flush draw possibility on the board I am insta-shoving river and watching you nits fold the 2nd nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

you say that but you'll never actually do it without the goods

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Any time there is a straight flush draw possibility on the board I am insta-shoving river and watching you nits fold the 2nd nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at that, you already told him you had the ace, he is a good thinking player, yet he pushes, you wanna call, knock yourself out.

Also along that line of thinking he should call if you pushed, with the naked J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, erm I mean it is a one card 2nd nuts hand, which after all is all you have here with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, seriously calling is awful.

Mack

[Gigglegirl]

[ QUOTE ]
Any time there is a straight flush draw possibility on the board I am insta-shoving river and watching you nits fold the 2nd nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you just do that and see how it works out for you.
Judging by this thread, you'll get called by ~50% of people and lose.
And unless you are a 15/7 nit, which your approach here leads me to think you are not, you'll probably also get snap called by the other 50% of us 'nits'.

As Chomp says, I find this thread to be absolutely unbelievable. I would imagine it'll soon be doing the rounds at the higher stakes forums in 'funniest thread of the year award'.
This is very basic poker.

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't read any previous posts and I call it all day, you can't fold A high flush on a non-paired board just because a two-card straight flush is out, EVER

[/ QUOTE ]

lol try to read the other post next time...
you´re here to learn. but as a default this is right.

[AZplaya]

Hindsight is always 20/20 in poker, and looking back I definitly should have found a fold here. That said, I'd be willing to bet 95% of the players on this forum wouldn't have been able to fold this at the table.

[traz]

This is the kind of thing where experience is all that matters and every player needs to learn for himself. The first few times everyone always looks this up because curiosity gets the best of them. But those who have played lots of hands realise that if you touch the cheese here you're gonna get shocked

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
Hindsight is always 20/20 in poker, and looking back I definitly should have found a fold here. That said, I'd be willing to bet 99.99999999999999999999999999943289324897432809243 0984238091243098 % of the players on this forum wouldn't have been able to fold this at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]fyp

i honestly doubt most of the people who r posting fold would fold this at the table. i think it is close and no one folds the nut flush on the river. that is ludacris. most of the people posting fold blah blah r just hoppin on the back of a few of the more respected posters oppinions.

[HBomb]

Good luck moving up limits if you're seriously questioning folding this hand..

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any time there is a straight flush draw possibility on the board I am insta-shoving river and watching you nits fold the 2nd nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you just do that and see how it works out for you.
Judging by this thread, you'll get called by ~50% of people and lose.
And unless you are a 15/7 nit, which your approach here leads me to think you are not, you'll probably also get snap called by the other 50% of us 'nits'.

As Chomp says, I find this thread to be absolutely unbelievable. I would imagine it'll soon be doing the rounds at the higher stakes forums in 'funniest thread of the year award'.
This is very basic poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused. Earlier you said calling this is spew, yet here you are saying that 100% of us call villain in this situation if there is a chance he is bluffing?

Edit: For the record, in the original hand hero needs to win 43% of the time for neutral EV. The fold isn't as easy as you claim.

[Nicefingcatch]

Why the hell do you even play poker if your considering folding your hand??!!!

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the hell do you even play poker if your considering folding your hand??!!!

[/ QUOTE ]thanks for the well thought out post. u added a ton to the thread /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
i honestly doubt most of the people who r posting fold would fold this at the table. i think it is close and no one folds the nut flush on the river. that is ludacris. most of the people posting fold blah blah r just hoppin on the back of a few of the more respected posters oppinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get how this is even close to close. Our hand is face up on the river, and so is villain's. "We have the 2nd nuts," and "we lose to one hand," are not arguments for it being close. Anyone calling this is basically praying that a huge rock is on some kind of nth-lvl thinking, turning the Jd into a bluff for 400BBs against another reg at uNL. Or that he misread the board.

[Gigglegirl]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused. Earlier you said calling this is spew, yet here you are saying that 100% of us call villain in this situation if there is a chance he is bluffing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously this is player and situation specific. The poster I was replying to was suggesting he would shove every 3 straight flush board. Him, I would call with this hand.
In the actual hand, we're talking about a 15/7 nit.
Its a different scenario.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i honestly doubt most of the people who r posting fold would fold this at the table. i think it is close and no one folds the nut flush on the river. that is ludacris. most of the people posting fold blah blah r just hoppin on the back of a few of the more respected posters oppinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get how this is even close to close. Our hand is face up on the river, and so is villain's. "We have the 2nd nuts," and "we lose to one hand," are not arguments for it being close. Anyone calling this is basically praying that a huge rock is on some kind of nth-lvl thinking, turning the Jd into a bluff for 400BBs against another reg at uNL. Or that he misread the board.

[/ QUOTE ]he [censored] up the turn almost as bad as he could so why cant he [censored] up the river as well!?!?!?!??!

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck moving up limits if you're seriously questioning folding this hand..

[/ QUOTE ]yep... this situation happens SOOOOOOOOO frequently that if u misplay this situation u clearly cant b a winning player. SIGH

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i honestly doubt most of the people who r posting fold would fold this at the table. i think it is close and no one folds the nut flush on the river. that is ludacris. most of the people posting fold blah blah r just hoppin on the back of a few of the more respected posters oppinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get how this is even close to close. Our hand is face up on the river, and so is villain's. "We have the 2nd nuts," and "we lose to one hand," are not arguments for it being close. Anyone calling this is basically praying that a huge rock is on some kind of nth-lvl thinking, turning the Jd into a bluff for 400BBs against another reg at uNL. Or that he misread the board.

[/ QUOTE ]he [censored] up the turn almost as bad as he could so why cant he [censored] up the river as well!?!?!?!??!

[/ QUOTE ]

Because [censored] up the turn is a microscopic mistake compared to [censored] up the river, and because rocks [censored] up by playing to passively and losing value rather than by cheerfully setting 4 stacks on fire for no conceivable reason.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck moving up limits if you're seriously questioning folding this hand..

[/ QUOTE ]

lol man, you can't be serious.

this is one of those freak hands that happens like once in someone's career. i highly doubt somebody's longterm winrate is going to be severely hampered by calling.

honestly though, this is only a fold because we're so deep. and i think that this thread itself is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy, in that we all knew in the back of our minds that op called and lost and responses were made in accordance with that.

[incognitus]

i think you give villain way too much credit. i just dont lay down monsters becos often people do things that doesnt make any sense at all.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously this is player and situation specific. The poster I was replying to was suggesting he would shove every 3 straight flush board. Him, I would call with this hand.
In the actual hand, we're talking about a 15/7 nit.
Its a different scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

15/7 doesn't tell us if he will represent the absolute nuts on the river. We know nothing of his bluffing frequency.

These situations are so rare that you wouldn't have a solid read here (i.e. villain bluffs here 100%).

Point is, it is close. In fact, I may even say that in the long term this is EV neutral. Like I pointed out, villain only needs to bluff 7% here for the call to be correct.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
in that we all knew in the back of our minds that op called and lost and responses were made in accordance with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

not necessarly, OP has posted hands b4 in tough situations where he has called and won. Even if OP calls and villian shows air I think it makes good disscussion based on the type of villian that is pushin the river on this board.

[C4LL4W4Y]

maybe it was just for me then, because i opened up this thread when it had like 9 pages. lol.

[ama0330]

This thread has become stupid and boring so I'm going to lock it. All useful analysis and thought process can be found further up the page.

The cliffnotes for those who cant be bothered:

AZplaya finds himself in a freak situation where he holds the nut flush where only one possible hand, a straight flush, can beat him. Add to this that he is very very deep. A few posters umm and ahh and don't know what do to, because folding the second nuts is almost impossible when you are behind one exact hand. There is no correct line in this hand, it is not an easy fold, and it is not an easy call.

Then AZplaya posts results, and a bunch of people who have no authority or experience to do so start saying that its an "easy fold" and if you don't fold then "good luck in your poker career". Which is just mind-numbingly ridiculous, un-neccessary and stupid, given that almost eveyone saying "fold" would be unable to do so in the 10 or so seconds allocated to them at the table.

Then ama sweeps in with the lockhammer and saves the day.

The end. Everone go home to your families.

[ama0330]

Unlocked, bumped, relocked. Jam posted the same hand in MSNL. Let's see how they go.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...;gonew=1#UNREAD (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=12399202&amp;an=0&amp;page=0&amp;gon ew=1#UNREAD)