NL$50: When set gets raise - Stove & Equity calculations

[ExplainPlease]

<font color="green"> 25/16/2.5 player over 130hands No other information having just taken a NL$50 shot. </font>



Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $88.85
BB: $46.25
UTG: $13.52
Hero (CO): $49.18
BTN: $49.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.75) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.75</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $4.75


Pot odds: 3.75+7.50+2.75:4.75 OR 3:1 25% equity required(Correct?)


River: ($18.75) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $11.00</font>

29.75: 11 = 3:1 also roughly25% equity required(Correct?)






Turn Ranges

Tight: 23s, 55 Equity: 13%
Wider: 55,A5s-A4s,32s,32o Equity: 32%
Widest: 55,A5s-A4s,54s,32s,54o,32o Equity: 44%


What i'm asking you is, how wide would you say his range is? What would you expect a player to raise this turn with?

[whyzze]

umn...why aren't AK, AA, KK in your ranges?

why didn't you 3bet the turn?

[Kasane]

You're ahead of sooooo much. You think btn flat called with AA/KK or AK pf? possible, but really unlikely. Does villain chk 55 on the flop after being checked to? more possible, but stupid... and still unlikely. 23? Is button calling with 23 preflop? Not with those stats.

2pr is villain's most likely holding. Maaybe pp plus flush draw like Kxcc. Most likely is 54 -- would explain the flop chk and the turn raise. Villain with those stats is betting flop with an A usually, or a K. If btn thinks that UTG checked a monster on the flop but by turn is convinced he has squat, then I can see Ax/Kx 2pr as being much more likely. His button calling range on a pf mr is really wide (and should be).

Note that your hand is really, really unlikely. No way he can predict that you're that strong. I reraise the turn and go for value right there.

25% equity needed or whatever -- but you've got like 80% or more. Raise for value. You're not calling for your outs.

[ExplainPlease]

Kasane - I disagree with alot of your assumptions, however this is a reply i wanted(peoples opinions on villans range).


You've contradicted yourself though, you seem to be putitng him on hands you can beat?

[ QUOTE ]
23? Is button calling with 23 preflop? Not with those stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely is 54 -- would explain the flop chk and the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ] he limps 54 but not 23?

Is there [/b]much [/b]difference in villans or your opinion in these hand values?


Also, he has RAISED the turn - Do you expect him to raise with Ax? Kx?

Can you give me your definitive range on the turn please(similar to format i typed).

Thanks mate

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
umn...why aren't AK, AA, KK in your ranges?

why didn't you 3bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think my equity exceeds 50% combined with FE.

He rarely limps AA/AK/KK IMO, this would be part of his wider range however but perhaps only 1 combo out of the 16 of AK(Since i think he raises 15/16 of the AKo combos).


Could you provide your range please mate

[Perk76]

What is the point of this?

UTG is out of the hand, so you got to put button on something. Too me if your beat its cause button has 55. You beat a ton of two pair hands and top pair ace rag hands. Get the money in.

[Keitan]

It's hard to put button on a hand here, possibly 55 but more likely some kind of combo draw. But based on the action you have to assume you're way ahead on the turn and you should definitely 3bet there imo prepared to call a shove. I think your line is too passive.

[Perk76]

To put it further, there are damn near zero NL50 players that are just calling on the button with AA/KK/AK the majority of the time. And its not gonna happen from a 25/16 player.

[whyzze]

imo if 23 is in his range then so should AA/KK/AK..thats all.

the fact that we dint 3 bet the turn or lead the river is a major leak.

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
imo if 23 is in his range then so should AA/KK/AK..thats all.

the fact that we dint 3 bet the turn or lead the river is a major leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

SO 23 is similar to AA when on the button facing 2 players?

Can you explain this, you've lost me.


[ QUOTE ]
What is the point of this?

UTG is out of the hand, so you got to put button on something. Too me if your beat its cause button has 55. You beat a ton of two pair hands and top pair ace rag hands. Get the money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assign a range, no offense but if you dont want to do this please don't post in this thread.

[Kasane]

23s is a much different hand than 54s. 54 is the lowest of the "good" suited connectors because it still makes all the up and down straight draws. I'd with with 54os before I'd call with 23s on the button, and I have similar stats to btn (higher pfr, but whatever). He didn't limp, btw, he called a mr.

If you got smoked on this one it's against 55, which you're going broke to anyway. Against everything else you've got massive equity -- raise for value!

[Perk76]

His range would have to include AA/KK/AK (very unlikely), I would think that he has a big King with club flush draw or 2 pair here enough to get the money in. If its 55 oh well, thats why you play set odds at 11-1 or close to that. If he has 23 lucky you, and reload.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]



Also, he has RAISED the turn - Do you expect him to raise with Ax? Kx?



[/ QUOTE ]
I said Ax/Kx 2pr hands... but yes, Ax raises turn after UTG chks again (if he thought UTG was slow-playing flop, but you don't give a read on UTG so this is a pure guess.)

You ARE ahead here most of the time. Reraise.

[kylephilly]

Get your money in fast. There are no flushes, one straight possibility, and a bunch of hands he may think are good, A6+, A5, A4, etc..

If you're worried about set over set then you are being silly. Are you ever laying this down? I shove river

[ExplainPlease]

Hmm, still no ones posting definitive ranges its all "2pair hands" - What 2pair hands? He slow played AK? A5o? A4? What?

Those who said i'm ahead, have you ran pokerstove or just being lazy/assuming?

If you did, give me the %'s and ranges you use.

Serious questions, i dont want BS/Lies since that helps no one.

[whyzze]

this isn't 50/100. If you lose a buy in here it is a cooler!

[ExplainPlease]

Its NL$50, vs a good player.

I don't want lazy answers or people blaming varience. I actually want a good discussion based on ranges, equity and solid assumptions.

Right now uNL doesn't seem to do this, perhaps SSNL is better.

[Perk76]

I cant run pokerstove at work. An unrealistic wide range would be AA/AK/KK/QcJc/KcQc/KQx/A4A5/99/23/Ax/random bluff hand.

The way the hand played out, he can be betting any two pair on river, ace rag also, along with his made hands. Against most 25/16 players at NL50 that range wont include AA/KK/AK/23s/, and he can simply be doing that with any of the above range.

I cant run stove right now, but you are ahead and should only be worried about 55, if so reload.

[kolotoure]

He isn't good with those stats, his range is Ax,pair + 2 clubs,23,45,55 and that is about it

[traz]

If you're going to put 23 in his range then you have to put hands like 67 and 67s, plus AQ/AK are in this guys range along with TJc, KcQc and other random clubs trying to steal the pot.

His range is alot wider than you're making it seem. Your hand is majorly underrepped and everyone has shown major weakness, which makes his range super wide.

In the end, I'm not sure why I'm replying because this is such a lame antagonistic troll post

[Kasane]

Jesus, OP, wtf??? Nobody here gets off on BS.

There are 3 combos of 55 and a million Ax/Kx and various other hands that make sense. We don't have to stove this particular situation because we can count to 10 -- any one of those would raise the turn. AA/KK/AK can be pretty much eliminated because of pf and villain's stats. When villain raises turn we know he's got 2pr+ 80% of the time. So what? We beat 2pr+. Now raise the turn for value.

[Keitan]

KcQc, QcJc, 6c7c are also possible for villain

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to put 23 in his range then you have to put hands like 67 and 67s, plus AQ/AK are in this guys range along with TJc, KcQc and other random clubs trying to steal the pot.

His range is alot wider than you're making it seem. Your hand is majorly underrepped and everyone has shown major weakness, which makes his range super wide.

In the end, I'm not sure why I'm replying because this is such a lame antagonistic troll post

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for posting, im not trolling - I just dont like "if you lost, poker is rigged" replys. Just dont see the point in replying if im being told nothing constructive.


Your post however, is constructive so i appreciate it.

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, OP, wtf??? Nobody here gets off on BS.

There are 3 combos of 55 and a million Ax/Kx and various other hands that make sense. We don't have to stove this particular situation because we can count to 10 -- any one of those would raise the turn. AA/KK/AK can be pretty much eliminated because of pf and villain's stats. When villain raises turn we know he's got 2pr+ 80% of the time. So what? We beat 2pr+. Now raise the turn for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont see where im positng BS?

So you put his range as this:
55,A5s-A4s,54s,32s,54o,32o Any others?

[Keitan]

How's this? Villain's range too tight?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

719,167,680 games 0.030 secs 23,972,256,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.425% 50.87% 00.55% 365863524 3965682.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 48.575% 48.02% 00.55% 345372792 3965682.00 { 55, AJs-A6s, A4s, KQs, 76s, 54s, 32s, AJo-ATo }

[corsakh]

This is not a hand to waste time on calculating equity.

[Kasane]

Keitan, put the board out there on that. Watch equity skyrocket...

[Keitan]

lol first time using stove -- when i saw the first one i was like wow i have got a lot to learn

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,008 games 0.070 secs 114,399 games/sec

Board: Ac Ks 5d 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.224% 88.22% 00.00% 7065 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 11.776% 11.78% 00.00% 943 0.00 { 55, AJs-A6s, A4s, KQs, 76s, 54s, 32s, AJo-ATo, KQo }

[Perk76]

Home run.

[Keitan]

I think that equity is too high though.. for example the KQ should really just be KcQc or villain's range.. but anyways, it's clear you're way ahead.

[Milky]

I think you also need to throw some bluffs into the range as well. You checked flop, then bet turn after UTG checked again so he may think you're trying to buy the pot and raise. When you call he probably puts you on a flush/straight draw or a K (maybe Ace w/weak kicker). You check river and since no draw came in he's firing again trying to take the pot down.

Now, this is a little less likely considering his AF stats however I think it's a definite possibility. Also, Keitan, you forgot JTs for villain's range.

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
lol first time using stove -- when i saw the first one i was like wow i have got a lot to learn

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,008 games 0.070 secs 114,399 games/sec

Board: Ac Ks 5d 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.224% 88.22% 00.00% 7065 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 11.776% 11.78% 00.00% 943 0.00 { 55, AJs-A6s, A4s, KQs, 76s, 54s, 32s, AJo-ATo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks optimistic, KQo? hmm sometimes

But even vs 55,AQs-AJs,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,K cQc,7c6c,5c4c,32s,AQo-AJo,32o

So shove seems optimal.

THank you /images/graemlins/smile.gif