i hate this spot

[lead24]

Whats the best line for this situation?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $54.35
BB: $67.05
UTG: $85.10
CO: $81.95
BTN: $66.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $2.50

Flop: ($6.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $9.00</font>, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($24.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $10.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $10.00 returned to UTG

Pot Size: $24.50 ($1.20 Rake)

[Genz]

Why do you call his flop raise if you want to c/f on the blankest turn known to man?
What do you think he has? He could have a set or 2pair, but he could have draws and TP hands. I would assume that an unknown would reraise bigger pairs preflop.
So either commit and go broke with your pair, by betting 15 on the turn and calling a push or don't call the flop raise in the first place.

[BetweenTheLines]

I would check this turn only to checkraise allin,do you have some stats of this player? A loose passive or a solid player?

[Waingro]

I really hate calling the flop. Apart from the card that came off, 80% of the deck is bad for you on the turn, only the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif is going to make you really happy. Either fold (reasonable) or shove.

[freeucm]

Yeah with JJ id think a fold on flop is probably best, I dont think we can just check/fold this flop. We have to bet post flop. You didnt play it all that bad.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
I really hate calling the flop. Apart from the card that came off, 80% of the deck is bad for you on the turn, only the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif is going to make you really happy. Either fold (reasonable) or shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right when you say that half the deck may be bad for you. But I don't like the conclusion that you draw. The fact that the turn will probably not too pretty for you doesn't meant that you should push immediately. But you should have a plan for the case that one of the safe cards comes off. A draw will have much less pot equity with only one card to come. So if you think that you don't have that much fold equity against a draw, it's often better to just call with the intention of getting it in on a blank turn.

[Waingro]

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I really hate calling the flop. Apart from the card that came off, 80% of the deck is bad for you on the turn, only the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif is going to make you really happy. Either fold (reasonable) or shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right when you say that half the deck may be bad for you. But I don't like the conclusion that you draw. The fact that the turn will probably not too pretty for you doesn't meant that you should push immediately. But you should have a plan for the case that one of the safe cards comes off. A draw will have much less pot equity with only one card to come. So if you think that you don't have that much fold equity against a draw, it's often better to just call with the intention of getting it in on a blank turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
My point was that there is very very few blank turns, that means we are well on our way to make a mistake on the turn like folding the best hand in a big pot either because villain continues bluffing or because he keeps valuebetting worse. I might see your point if we thought that villains range is draws and monsters, but I think villains range is much much wider like top pair, a random shot at the pot with a stubborn AQ, a pair + gutshot etc etc. And we have no idea how villain plays all those hands and what he will put us on after we call. I think if we call flop and fold a non-blank turn we are bleeding money. I agree that this turn is a very very good candidate for a crai.

[quirkasaurus]

I'm thinking he flopped 2 pair with his pocket 67s...

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking he flopped 2 pair with his pocket 67s...

[/ QUOTE ]
And that's the only credible hand for him? Start thinking in ranges.

[Genz]

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I really hate calling the flop. Apart from the card that came off, 80% of the deck is bad for you on the turn, only the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif is going to make you really happy. Either fold (reasonable) or shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right when you say that half the deck may be bad for you. But I don't like the conclusion that you draw. The fact that the turn will probably not too pretty for you doesn't meant that you should push immediately. But you should have a plan for the case that one of the safe cards comes off. A draw will have much less pot equity with only one card to come. So if you think that you don't have that much fold equity against a draw, it's often better to just call with the intention of getting it in on a blank turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
My point was that there is very very few blank turns, that means we are well on our way to make a mistake on the turn like folding the best hand in a big pot either because villain continues bluffing or because he keeps valuebetting worse. I might see your point if we thought that villains range is draws and monsters, but I think villains range is much much wider like top pair, a random shot at the pot with a stubborn AQ, a pair + gutshot etc etc. And we have no idea how villain plays all those hands and what he will put us on after we call. I think if we call flop and fold a non-blank turn we are bleeding money. I agree that this turn is a very very good candidate for a crai.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I see your point. But without any reads we are turning our hand into a bluff if we push on this flop, because I don't assume that an unknown will stack off with a flush draw. FWIW I don't c/f the turn immediately when an overcard hits. This is pretty much a WA/WB situation plus the draw. So I like seeing a mostly cheap turn with the intention of commiting when a blank hits or representing a big pair when an overcard hits or giving up when the draw also hits. Like that I get to make my decision for my whole stack based on more information, might have additional fold equity (if he sucked out with his 6 overcard outs, oh well.) and price out a draw.

[ama0330]

In this case (totally unknown opponent) I think I would fold the flop. Villains at these stakes aren't as creative as you might think (without a read, which you havent supplied) and given that you are OOP this really is a reverse implied odds nightmare. You cant just call the flop to fold the dry turn, so make your read on the flop and go with it.

If you think he is on a draw (and will bet multiple streets), checkraise the safe turn all in. If you dont think he is capable of raising here without some real strength, just bet/fold.