NL50 - Flopped Pair on dry board lol! But what villain, no?

[Jever]

So. Villain was like 15/4 over 150 hands. AF 3.0 or something.
Villain shoves AK easily rite?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $24.55
Hero (BB): $113.30
UTG: $67.90
BTN: $72.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($3.75) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $7.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $18.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $66.15</font>, Hero ???

I know: "If you dont call here, you are a fish!"
Amirtite?

[Jever]

*bump*
I know the title is spew... so whatever
What do you think about the hand? Easy call vs. 15/4, 4minutes-on-the-flop-thinking TAG?

[BetweenTheLines]

I think it's a call,too much money to fold.I would bet the flop to build a big pot if he has a king,especially AK.

[wslee00]

i'm felting this - if he has KK that's just a cooler

[VLV]

Well the only hand that beats you at the moment is KK, which I think villain would be on the flop with. Given his stats I think we could assign him a very narrow range of 33, 55, AK, KK, AA or MAYBE K9s.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.313% 87.31% 00.00% 25932 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 12.687% 12.69% 00.00% 3768 0.00 { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, K9s, AKo }

Wouldn't even think about it.

Edit: Just realised its impossible for him to have K9s, doesn't make much difference though.

[clowntable]

Never ever fold second set on a dry board with these stacks. If you don't snap call this why do you even play PPs?
I'm also snap calling if I had 55 here

[Jever]

I really think 33 or 55 is WAY to wide for a range, sorry.

To the other two: Yes, i was thinking bout b/3betting it, but this fella seemed kind of passive, so I went for checkrasie... coz I thought, he would cbet any 4% hand he would have, wouldnt he?

[clowntable]

AdKd, 33, 55 are all in the UTG opening range.
KdQd could be in it as well and be played like this
I think he might not play other AK like this but then again he might
-&gt; felt all day
I think B3B would be marginally better than check/raise if you think he's passive.
He might fold AK (which is the hand you hope for apart from another set but that plays itself) to a CR but if he is passive he'll call the bet and likely bet to protect his hand on any card that puts two to a flush out there (even though it's very unlikely you have the flush there most passive villains really fear flushes). In any case he'll not fold the AK to a bet so you get money in either way and the bigger the pot gets the more committed he'll feel.
If there would be a two flush on the flop I'd go for the CR because he could put you on a draw. C/R on a dry board like this usually rings set alarm bells unless you have been bullying him a bunch before this hand.

[Jever]

No, wait... /images/graemlins/smile.gif
He had a pretty high AF: 3.
He checked the flop after waiting like 30 secs... then all the whole turn action came...

Im really not quite good in hand reading. But this time I put him on a hand... Do you?

[clowntable]

He should play 33, 55, AdKd and KK the same way in this spot. Even if he never has AdKd here:
Board: 9s 5d Kc 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.909% 65.91% 00.00% 261 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 34.091% 34.09% 00.00% 135 0.00 { KK, 55, 33 }

And even if he doesn't go crazy like this with the 33 you're still 50/50 and there's money in the pot.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
AdKd, 33, 55 are all in the UTG opening range.
KdQd could be in it as well and be played like this
I think he might not play other AK like this but then again he might
-&gt; felt all day
I think B3B would be marginally better than check/raise if you think he's passive.
He might fold AK (which is the hand you hope for apart from another set but that plays itself) to a CR but if he is passive he'll call the bet and likely bet to protect his hand on any card that puts two to a flush out there (even though it's very unlikely you have the flush there most passive villains really fear flushes). In any case he'll not fold the AK to a bet so you get money in either way and the bigger the pot gets the more committed he'll feel.
If there would be a two flush on the flop I'd go for the CR because he could put you on a draw. C/R on a dry board like this usually rings set alarm bells unless you have been bullying him a bunch before this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. He is rather aggressive. AF 3.0 with VPIP 14.
I wasnt right in some of my posts earlier.
So what now?

[Jever]

Sorry, but he never has 33 or 55 here UTG! Really!

[clowntable]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but he never has 33 or 55 here UTG! Really!

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be too sure. Most people with that low a VPIP are set farmers imo

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think 33 or 55 is WAY to wide for a range, sorry.

To the other two: Yes, i was thinking bout b/3betting it, but this fella seemed kind of passive, so I went for checkrasie... coz I thought, he would cbet any 4% hand he would have, wouldnt he?

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, a pfr% of 4 doesn´t raise 33, 55 UTG. And that flop pause is scary. But he could be trapping with AA or AK as well, we all see it all the time.

[Jever]

Ok.
Nother question:
If you were the guy with... say AA... would you thind 30 seconds before you cbet?
If you had AK ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet
Well... now it gets interesting
If you had QQ ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet? Yes? And well... Would you go all-in on the turn?
Yes? Congratulations, you are Krantz!!!

Seriously though, do you understand me at all?

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok.
Nother question:
If you were the guy with... say AA... would you thind 30 seconds before you cbet?
If you had AK ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet
Well... now it gets interesting
If you had QQ ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet? Yes? And well... Would you go all-in on the turn?
Yes? Congratulations, you are Krantz!!!

Seriously though, do you understand me at all?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have seen the long pause check, miniraise turn with AA on this board before.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok.
Nother question:
If you were the guy with... say AA... would you thind 30 seconds before you cbet?
If you had AK ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet
Well... now it gets interesting
If you had QQ ... would you think 30 seconds before you cbet? Yes? And well... Would you go all-in on the turn?
Yes? Congratulations, you are Krantz!!!

Seriously though, do you understand me at all?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have seen the long pause check, miniraise turn with AA on this board before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you?
I havent.
So really thanks for the hint.
So eventually we have which hands in play? AA, ... KJ (yarly?) ... AK (yarly?) ... DUCwhat?

[BetweenTheLines]

the main point is that you're getting almost 2:1 for the call, so you don't have to be the favorite against his range.

[Jever]

Yo, tell me, whats his range?

[Jever]

AK? yeah!
KQ? probably not.

But tell me: who would play AK like that?

[BetweenTheLines]

The flop is realy dry, so there is a good chance that villain checks his AA/AK to get some value out of the situation.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is realy dry, so there is a good chance that villain checks his AA/AK to get some value out of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah? Rly?
You are putting villain on AK?

Edit: He/She is 10/4/3, remember!

[BetweenTheLines]

I put him on KK,AA and AK.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on KK,AA and AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats really a too wide range, sorry.
Think about it!

[kolotoure]

OP what is with the attitude? This is a pretty obv call when you are getting 2:1, and yes both 33 and 55 are well within his range as is AA

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
OP what is with the attitude? This is a pretty obv call when you are getting 2:1, and yes both 33 and 55 are well within his range as is AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv not.

[flameboy]

And even if you only give him AA and KK, you're getting 2:1 as a 2:1 favourite.

[BetweenTheLines]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The flop is realy dry, so there is a good chance that villain checks his AA/AK to get some value out of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah? Rly?You are putting villain on AK?

Edit: He/She is 10/4/3, remember!

[/ QUOTE ]

4% preflop raises means 99+ and AK, and I would not eliminate smaller pocketpairs,150 hands is not the biggest samplesize.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]
OP what is with the attitude? This is a pretty obv call when you are getting 2:1, and yes both 33 and 55 are well within his range as is AA

[/ QUOTE ]

So. I said "obv not".
Coz it is obviously not the case.
You micro-guys think in stereotypes: Never fold a set, never fold a 2ndFlush.
So what???
Where do all these stereotypes come from? And why?
And do I have to learn them?

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]


4% preflop raises means 99+ and AK, and would not eliminate
smaller pocketpairs,150 hands is not the biggest samplesize.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty wrong tho!

[mr.spam]

you're losing to exactly one hand, lol, get your money in...

[Lego05]

I haven't read anything other tahn OP really. But why does this have so many posts?


Call: hand over.

[traz]

Please never fold here

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
OP what is with the attitude?

[/ QUOTE ]

These people are trying to help you!
You are being arrogant and annoying!
I will not be responding to your hand posts in the future!

[nukewell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OP what is with the attitude? This is a pretty obv call when you are getting 2:1, and yes both 33 and 55 are well within his range as is AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your playing 4 handed so UTG is basically the CO, how can u take 33 and 55 out of his range. AA, KK AKd 33, 55 all most likely

lol dont ask for peoples opinions if u dont want to hear them

If he had KK unlucky but cant fold getting 2 to 1 here.

[Hail Eris]

With 2nd set on this board, I really don't care what he has. Folding is atrocious. Maybe if we were deeper and he overbet shoved I could contemplate folding, but there's no way he has KK often enough to justify a fold with the odds you're getting.

Even straightforward nits decide to get "tricky" sometimes and open a small pair UTG or check behind their AA on a very dry flop. Nits have to slowplay against non-fish to make any money on their hands.

[clowntable]

[x] OP doesn't want a discussion but wants us to agree to his genius
[x] OP has an attitude problem
[x] This post is useless but I had to post this
[x] This is my last post in this thread
[x] I want OP at my tables

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

Is this thread a joke? If you don't get your money in with sets, fold all PP.

[FluffyLiLClouds]

Post deleted by FluffyLiLClouds

[FluffyLiLClouds]

[ QUOTE ]
You micro-guys think in stereotypes: Never fold a set, never fold a 2ndFlush.
So what???
Where do all these stereotypes come from? And why?
And do I have to learn them?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know everyone on this thread, so I can't speak for everyone, but kolotoure is a big winner at much higher stakes. I am a winning player at 100 and 200 NL.

This guy is sitting around waiting all day for AA and KK. Is his flop check scary? You bet. Does it mean he can have KK and only KK? No way.

I've played probably a half million hands of only poker and you can believe me when I say that a 15/4 retard is definitely capable of playing AA this way. Or even AdKd.

[dnord]

To everyone saying "what a joke", take a look at stacks. This is probably a snap-call with smaller stacks, but these guys are playing with 135BB.

What does the villain put us on when he pushes, I wonder? We've called preflop (eliminating, perhaps, AA and KK from our range) and checked to what we completely expected to be a c-bet. Does he think we're on a steal? He can't think that when we three-bet the flop.

[traz]

this kind of player will felt AA and AK all the time

[Genesis]

150 hand sample just gives a ballpark for his range here. AA, KK, AK, 55 and 33 could all possibly be in his opening range.

Flop:
He checks: I have a good hand or the King scares me.

Turn:
You bet: I might have something.
He min raises: I have something too, likely top pair or better.
You 3bet: I have at least two pair.
He 4bets: I beat two pair.
(obviously this doesn't apply to all opponents but it might be a decent representation here)

At this point you are getting nearly 2 to 1. You have the 2nd best hand possible. His most likely hands are KK, 55, maybe 33. KK should probably be weighted a little heavier because of his stats, but you cannot fold because the pot is too big. Pot is now $88.40 and costs you $47.65 to call, yielding 1.85 to 1 odds. You need to win 35% to break even here.

For the heck of it I set up what would be a near break even situation:
If he has KK 65% of the time, 55 20%, 33 10%, other (using AKs) 5%, then the EV of calling is +$.64.

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]
To everyone saying "what a joke", take a look at stacks. This is probably a snap-call with smaller stacks, but these guys are playing with 135BB.

What does the villain put us on when he pushes, I wonder? We've called preflop (eliminating, perhaps, AA and KK from our range) and checked to what we completely expected to be a c-bet. Does he think we're on a steal? He can't think that when we three-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think 50NLers think that much? 135BBs isn't that deep, either.

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

135bb isnt deep at all, I would felt this 400 BB deep.

I like how people are putting him exactly on KK when we have a 150 HAND SAMPLE SIZE.