Understanding Variance vs Questioning your ability..(hands/graph/long) [Archive]

View Full Version : Understanding Variance vs Questioning your ability..(hands/graph/long)

meccaNES

09-13-2007, 12:57 AM

This is something have had a very hard time with. As my winrate drops from running/playing bad i begin to question if what i'm doing is the correct play or if it's just variance.

Here's some examples of variance from today's play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($46)
MP ($46.40)
Button ($26.30)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($3.50) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, Button calls $2.50.

River: ($8.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $4.50.

Final Pot: $26.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ts Qh (two pair, queens and jacks).
Button has 9h Js (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins $26.50. 

I felt i was ahead there...and simply value betting a calling station.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($45.90)
UTG ($199.45)
MP ($28)
Hero ($93.90)
Button ($64.75)
SB ($15.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $13.7 (All-In), Hero calls $13.70.

Turn: ($0) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $31.90

Results in white below: 
SB has Kd Tc (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ad 5d (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins $31.90. 

This guy was just an INSANE shorty i knew he's make this move with literally any two high cards any pair any draw. Just about any hand and figured i was a pretty decent favorite or at least even money on this flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($50)
UTG ($30.95)
MP ($50.40)
CO ($78.15)
Button ($28.30)
SB ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($2) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, UTG folds, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

River: ($5) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP raises to $11.5, Hero calls $8.

Final Pot: $28

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3d 7c (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP has Jd Ts (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MP wins $28. 

I'm not sure what the hell this hand is, feel free to comment on it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($30.50)
Button ($37.30)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, UTG calls $6.50, Button calls $6.50, SB raises to $49.5, Hero raises to $54.75, UTG calls $23.50 (All-In), Button calls $30.30 (All-In).

Flop: ($142.40) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($142.40) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($142.40) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $172.05

Results in white below: 
UTG has 9d As (two pair, aces and nines).
Button has Ks Jh (one pair, twos).
SB has Ah Kh (two pair, aces and twos).
Hero has Qc Qs (two pair, queens and twos).
Outcome: UTG wins $122. SB wins $50.05. 

The SB was semi lagish but an ok player. Very much capable of 4betting w/ AKs with a lot of dead money ina 3bet pot. I felt the other two overcallers were holding some of his outs and thus greatly increasing my odds of holding up on the flop. Easy call.

Ok, so that's variance. I get that i made decent/ok plays and got drawn out on or lost flips.

Note that i'm not bitching, this is simply how the game goes. If this couldn't happen then no one would make any money.

What i want to focus on is where can you draw the line between variance and bad play?

"Oh i got it in ahead and they sucked out on me"

Is that the soul of variance? Just getting it in ahead and hoping to hold up?

What about when we assess a range for out opponents and it turns out we were huge dogs? Was the play there poor or was it just variance? I guess a lot of this would just be situational.

Here's some hands i think played very poorly. Comments on these would be greatly appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($33.10)
Button ($51.10)
SB ($85.15)
Hero ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($4.50) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($4.50) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $14.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh Tc (one pair, tens).
MP has 8h Qs (straight, queen high).
Outcome: MP wins $14.50. 

I think we see a busted draw or a weak 9 or even air here enough especially vs this guy as i'd seen him bluff the river before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($75)
UTG ($28)
MP ($48)
CO ($44.85)
Hero ($54.75)
SB ($35.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, MP raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($3.75) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($3.75) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP bets $2, Hero raises to $6.5, MP calls $4.50.

River: ($16.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $16.75

Results in white below: 
MP has Ac Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero has Tc Th (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: MP wins $16.75. 

This guy was 11/4/.9 and very weak tight.
I really didn't figure him for TPTK as he checked the flop and i thought the turn raise would take it down but, i knew i was in trouble after he called.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($74.55)
Hero ($64.95)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($34.50)
BB ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $8.5, SB folds, BB raises to $29.05, Hero calls $20.55.

Turn: ($64.10) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

River: ($64.10) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $64.10

Results in white below: 
BB has 8h Td (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ks Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: BB wins $64.10. 

This guy is 45/10/1 over ~100 hands. I think this may just be a classic case of overplaying big pairs. That's a REALLY wet board and after my flop raise i should just fold it in most cases.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($49.75)
MP ($69.60)
CO ($30.25)
Hero ($54)
SB ($57.80)
BB ($6.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $4.5, SB calls $4.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($15.50) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $9, Hero calls $9.

River: ($33.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24.

Final Pot: $81.50

Results in white below: 
SB has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Ah Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins $81.50. 

I was really lost in this hand. As i put the SB on something like AJ or AT. Maybe AQ which is why i froze up. I think in these types of situations i become weak tight. I didn't 3bet PF since the initial raiser was 11/4/infinity. I don't see a lot of purpose in 3betting super nits. Especially not when i have position on them. I'm probably wrong though.

I included the results in most of these as it'd be too much trouble and it wouldn't get my point across on varaince if there weren't any.

I understand that both are parts of our games. But at times i think the line between variance and poor play can be blurred. Especially for me.

So, you guys, please fill me on on which hands are which. Variance or poor play.

Also, is this a common problem? I think i see it a bit where people start doubting themselves. I don't want to be a victim of that as well.

oh yeah here's this thing. I still don't know how to read these things. So, if some of you guys can give me a quick lesson on it i'd greatly appreciate it.

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/5193/todayssessionmz3.jpg

fjbourne

09-13-2007, 01:00 AM

All in Graph? That's the best way to tell if you're actually running bad. The Sklansky bucks graphs really don't tell you anything.

tautomer

09-13-2007, 01:25 AM

Call river raises or pot bets with marginal hands less often unless the villain is a habitual river bluffer. That should fix things up a bit. Plus it's only 1000 hands, I think that's only like 90 minutes of play if you're 7 tabling. This is just a standard blah session really. They do happen from time to time.

Obviously getting all in preflop with QQ against the whole table is a very high variance play but not necessarily a bad one given the action in your case. The SB is the only one that has you beat most times. You pretty much just need to dodge overcards to the river. Definitely a gamble with multiple opponents.

Ikaika

09-13-2007, 01:29 AM

Post more hands together so that its impossible to respond coherently to any of them.

meccaNES

09-13-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Post more hands together so that its impossible to respond coherently to any of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this...?

Kasane

09-13-2007, 02:07 AM

Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

Post in the new micro brew bbv thread. This is perfect there...

C4LL4W4Y

09-13-2007, 02:12 AM

hmmm, looks like you're confusing variance with overplaying hands. let me give my comments.

1: i probably wouldn't lead the turn, but if you have good reason to believe he'll call down with marginal made hands/draws then this is fine. however, once that jack rivers i'd seriously consider shutting down, or at the very least not leading, as jack/x is within that marginal hands/draws range that he is often on.

2: bad call, you're getting 18.2-13.7 which is not enough for your draw.

3: marginal spot, you can go either way with a fold/call to the river raise depending on your perception of villain.

4: i'd probably 3bet to like 8/9, and if you say villain is playing semi lag-ish then its probably a call, but it's marginal.

5: what the hell is that flop lead?

6: raising the turn (TT hand) turns your hand into a bluff, and usually only receives further action from hands that are beating you. just call and try to get some value on the river.

7: w/t guys are the only types of people i fold this to, and i still have a hard time. i can't fault you for felting this, but against guys that don't give a lot of action, you're often beat in this spot.

8: the ak hand, eh i can't really find a fold until the river. the turn is fine, though i usually raise against guys that love random aces.

C4LL4W4Y

09-13-2007, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

[/ QUOTE ]

even though op was often up against hands he was beating, doesn't mean that he beat those ranges..

Kasane

09-13-2007, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

[/ QUOTE ]

even though op was often up against hands he was beating, doesn't mean that he beat those ranges..

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, but his hero calls at least seemed based on solid reads...

johnnybeef

09-13-2007, 02:51 AM

hand 1: Calling the river raise is pretty bad, I mean, you really aren't beating too much. I will usually check the river and enable him to bluff all his missed draws.

hand 2: Just fold please. You are getting horrendous odds. This ain't the movies, in real life, hero's die.

hand 3: Not horrible, and I tend to make the call when playing bad, but there is definitely a fold there if you look hard enough.

hand 4: One of my friends who plays high stakes says that the cutoff point for getting all in pre without a read in a 6 max game is QQ. I think that this probably applys much more at the more aggressive higher stakes games, but at unl, I am finding that playing QQ for stacks is neutral ev at best, although you did have a fair amount of dead money so I don't hate the call.

hand 5: This is actually ok I think assuming he's not totally passive. You let him bluff a missed spade draw and value bet a smallish pair/9.

hand 6: Unless villain is mixing up his play, he played it horribly, and you played it reasonably. Although, I prefer to 3bet pre. Also, if I am flat calling, I am betting the flop here 100%. Your turn play isn't the greatest as you are only getting called by hands that beat you.

hand 7: Call flop, raise a bricked turn.

hand 8: Again, I prefer 3 betting preflop here, and I prolly shove turn. That is usually a blocker bet at these stakes.

Like a lot of unlers, you have difficulty finding folds. Remember, when people raise in nlhe, they are usually strong. Good players get bluffed A LOT. When I am playing my best, I rarely am calling unless it is as a bluff catcher, or I am very strong.

TTStrangler

09-13-2007, 11:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($74.55)
Hero ($64.95)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($34.50)
BB ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $8.5, SB folds, BB raises to $29.05, Hero calls $20.55.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand 7: Call flop, raise a bricked turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why we don't raise the weak donk bet here multiway, shouldn't we try to at least try to push out or punish a potential draw?

johnnybeef

09-13-2007, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($74.55)
Hero ($64.95)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($34.50)
BB ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $8.5, SB folds, BB raises to $29.05, Hero calls $20.55.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand 7: Call flop, raise a bricked turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why we don't raise the weak donk bet here multiway, shouldn't we try to at least try to push out or punish a potential draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you raise a donk bet you bloat the pot with a hand that is only getting called by a made hand (at least in theory.) Since his range here includes a ton of draws you will usually get much more clarity on the turn where he is at, and he will often fire a second barrel with a big draw. In retrospect, calling the flop with the blind intention on raising the turn is not ideal. Rather, you should reevaluate on the turn.

Sherman

09-13-2007, 03:21 PM

What is your fold to river bet %? From these few hands, it looks to me like you put too much $ in on the river with marginal hands (like TP).

Hand 1 is a pretty easy river fold.
Hand 3 is relatively easy IMO also.

Sherman

Supwithbates

09-13-2007, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is something have had a very hard time with. As my winrate drops from running/playing bad i begin to question if what i'm doing is the correct play or if it's just variance.

Here's some examples of variance from today's play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($46)
MP ($46.40)
Button ($26.30)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($3.50) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, Button calls $2.50.

River: ($8.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $4.50.

Final Pot: $26.50

[/ QUOTE ]
Fold to river minraise. If he's a calling station, what worse hand is he getting aggro with on the river? Passive players never bluffraise and that's all you beat anyways.
[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($45.90)
UTG ($199.45)
MP ($28)
Hero ($93.90)
Button ($64.75)
SB ($15.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $13.7 (All-In), Hero calls $13.70.

Turn: ($0) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $31.90

Results in white below: 
SB has Kd Tc (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ad 5d (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins $31.90. 

This guy was just an INSANE shorty i knew he's make this move with literally any two high cards any pair any draw. Just about any hand and figured i was a pretty decent favorite or at least even money on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK I guess with your read but still questionable. This is just a bad beat anyways because you were right, why post? YOu got it in as a favorite...

[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($50)
UTG ($30.95)
MP ($50.40)
CO ($78.15)
Button ($28.30)
SB ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($2) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, UTG folds, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

River: ($5) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP raises to $11.5, Hero calls $8.

Final Pot: $28

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3d 7c (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP has Jd Ts (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MP wins $28. 

[/ QUOTE ]
I fall into this trap sometimes myself because I get stubborn, but again, river raises are almost never bluffs against like 90% of opponents at these stakes. Try to put him on a range for value-raising this river (which is what it is, because this really isn't a scarecard, and he has a missed draw here never). Is he raising rivered third pair, or does he more likely have a straight, two pair (all of which beat you), or a set? Let it go.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what the hell this hand is, feel free to comment on it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($30.50)
Button ($37.30)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, UTG calls $6.50, Button calls $6.50, SB raises to $49.5, Hero raises to $54.75, UTG calls $23.50 (All-In), Button calls $30.30 (All-In).

Flop: ($142.40) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($142.40) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($142.40) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $172.05

Results in white below: 
UTG has 9d As (two pair, aces and nines).
Button has Ks Jh (one pair, twos).
SB has Ah Kh (two pair, aces and twos).
Hero has Qc Qs (two pair, queens and twos).
Outcome: UTG wins $122. SB wins $50.05. 

The SB was semi lagish but an ok player. Very much capable of 4betting w/ AKs with a lot of dead money ina 3bet pot. I felt the other two overcallers were holding some of his outs and thus greatly increasing my odds of holding up on the flop. Easy call.

[/ QUOTE ] SO you lost a flip for a big pot vs a LAG and 2 fish? Why post this?

[ QUOTE ]

Note that i'm not bitching, this is simply how the game goes. If this couldn't happen then no one would make any money.

What i want to focus on is where can you draw the line between variance and bad play?

"Oh i got it in ahead and they sucked out on me"

Is that the soul of variance? Just getting it in ahead and hoping to hold up?

What about when we assess a range for out opponents and it turns out we were huge dogs? Was the play there poor or was it just variance? I guess a lot of this would just be situational.

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright, but there's more to it than suckouts and coolers too. Missed draws, being dealt the worst of it, etc. all come into play too.

[ QUOTE ]

Here's some hands i think played very poorly. Comments on these would be greatly appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($33.10)
Button ($51.10)
SB ($85.15)
Hero ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($4.50) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($4.50) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $14.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh Tc (one pair, tens).
MP has 8h Qs (straight, queen high).
Outcome: MP wins $14.50. 

I think we see a busted draw or a weak 9 or even air here enough especially vs this guy as i'd seen him bluff the river before.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't lead out on 2flush flops OOP multiway with a gutshot. That's burning money. River you need to be pretty confident that this overbet is a bluff a large % of the time to make the call.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($75)
UTG ($28)
MP ($48)
CO ($44.85)
Hero ($54.75)
SB ($35.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, MP raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($3.75) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($3.75) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP bets $2, Hero raises to $6.5, MP calls $4.50.

River: ($16.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $16.75

Results in white below: 
MP has Ac Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero has Tc Th (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: MP wins $16.75. 

This guy was 11/4/.9 and very weak tight.
I really didn't figure him for TPTK as he checked the flop and i thought the turn raise would take it down but, i knew i was in trouble after he called.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're in trouble every time he calls, then what are you doing raising? Any time you have a pocket pair with overcards out on a dry board vs. a tight opponent, you're either way ahead or way behind. Raising turns your hand into a bluff... is he really calling with TT or worse here? Is a nit folding a queen here that he was willing to bet preflop and turn with? Unlikely to both. I hate how you played this.

How I would play this hand would depend on a bunch of factors, including my image, and my interpretation of my opponent.

On the flop, I don't think a bet or a check behind is a mistake depending on the circumstances. If my opponent is likely to get feisty with a lower pocket pair if I check behind and the board bricks out, I might check behind as a mini-trap. If I read my opponent as someone that is more of a passive/scared player, I'd bet, because he is likely to check when he misses but in the face of unending aggression he can call down with AK high or a lower pair out of frustration. I might try a bet/bet approach, or a bet/check/call river approach. If my opponent seems trappy or I have a really loose aggressive image already established, I really like a bet/fold line. Often he has whiffed overs and will give up, so we don't want to give a free card, but he also could very well be trapping with a monster.

===
[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($74.55)
Hero ($64.95)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($34.50)
BB ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $8.5, SB folds, BB raises to $29.05, Hero calls $20.55.

Turn: ($64.10) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

River: ($64.10) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $64.10

Results in white below: 
BB has 8h Td (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ks Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: BB wins $64.10. 

This guy is 45/10/1 over ~100 hands. I think this may just be a classic case of overplaying big pairs. That's a REALLY wet board and after my flop raise i should just fold it in most cases.

[/ QUOTE ]
Again, depends on the situation. I often find this happening to me as well, where someone tries to get it in vs my overpair and I have a feeling I'm behind. If I don't have a read on my opponent that he's a complete donkey, a fold is probably correct. This tiny lead/shove is generally a pretty strong hand in my experience, though.

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($49.75)
MP ($69.60)
CO ($30.25)
Hero ($54)
SB ($57.80)
BB ($6.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $4.5, SB calls $4.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($15.50) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $9, Hero calls $9.

River: ($33.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24.

Final Pot: $81.50

Results in white below: 
SB has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Ah Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins $81.50. 

I was really lost in this hand. As i put the SB on something like AJ or AT. Maybe AQ which is why i froze up. I think in these types of situations i become weak tight. I didn't 3bet PF since the initial raiser was 11/4/infinity. I don't see a lot of purpose in 3betting super nits. Especially not when i have position on them. I'm probably wrong though.

[/ QUOTE ]
On the contrary, preflop you HAVE to 3bet, otherwise you're setting yourself up in a position with huge reverse implied odds. An information raise is pretty important to force him to fold out pocket pairs, as well as letting you know to shut down if called.

e_phemeral

09-13-2007, 04:36 PM

Others have given you very good specific advice about each of the hands that you posted. I think you played many of these hands poorly. You seem to be either a bet/bet/bet or a call/call/call guy. From these hands, it looks to me like you make your reads/decisions at the flop and then you stop thinking about the hand and autopilot it on the turn and river. This results in you making a lot of bad river calls and bad river bets (like that AK hand against set of Queens - ewww). I think you need to add some nuance to your game and try different lines on flop, turn and river (e.g, bet/check/bet) depending on the situation. On each street you have to evaluate what happened on the prior street and adjust your reads and act accordingly.

For example, on that AK hand - ok, he cold called your flop and turn bets on a completely uncoordinated and non-flushy board - what does he most likely have? set or 2 pair! Something big. Unless he's a complete donk calling you down with 2nd pair or worse K, then he's drawing you in, happy to let you do the betting for him. That push on the river is atrocious to me. When he calls that $9 bet on the turn, I would shut down immediately and maybe check-call a small river bet.

Generally, I think you need to acquaint yourself with the check and fold buttons and stop losing so many big pots with one pair. Also, read up on inducing bluffs. I find it is often better to play top pair somewhat lightly/weakly and get loose players with 2nd and third pair to think that they are good. You want to get worse hands to call your top pair, not scare them off. And you don't want to lose a big pot with just top pair.

NL Newbie

09-13-2007, 06:34 PM

[x]Lost 1/2 a buyin
[x]Got sucked out on sometimes
[x]thinks this is a downswing

Am i right?

Im down 4BI and NL$25 and 2 at NL$50 today.