$50NL - Should I have folded here? Possible set?

[Bad Beat Maker]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Hero (SB): $49.50
BB: $100.30
UTG: $51.00
MP: $26.70
CO: $139.10
BTN: $49.25

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 40/8/2 over 74 hands (very small sample).</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, BB folds, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($5) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50

Turn: ($12) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $16.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $8.00 returned to CO

Pot Size: $28.00 ($1.40 Rake)

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

Ask yourself if he is really raising QJ here. Easy fold, baluga.

[Bad Beat Maker]

Thanks. and baluga????

[YanP]

would like to know how the villain got his stack, if he luckboxed or won a big pair vs draw kinda hand then i'd be more likely to call, if he'd made a load by setmining then i'm folding for sure.

i'm thinking $4 on the flop but that's minor,
has he ever appeared to float flops and stolen on the river, this is a very hard one without exact reads.

i'm torn between calling and folding on the turn, if calling i check call probably.
Tough Spot

[Bad Beat Maker]

Yea virtually no reads here I had just joined the table and guess I had datamined the others. Sick spot :\

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

Not that sick guys. Think about villians stats and any of his holdings.

Baluga theorem states how you seriously have to evaluate the strength of One-pair hands when facing turn resistance. Villain is not that aggressive (stats are iffy, but eh), and at these levels turn minraises are a sign of extreme strength.

If you call this turn bet, theres a pretty good chance you will be faced with another large bet on the river. His limp/call preflop indicates a low suited connector or PP, so two pair type hands, straights, and sets are a huge part of his range.

I think a fold here is very standard, and I'd expect to see a set here A LOT.

[Bad Beat Maker]

Cool. Ty!

[Kasane]

If you haven't come across Baluga yet, you've got to take a scan through the stickies. Baluga is probably the most important easily digested concept; but if you haven't seen it yet, it means that you're missing a whole lot of other very, very good stuff as well.

[Kasane]

oh, and on the hand itself, you're toast here 80% of the time and in a horrible RIO situation as well.

The board is super dry, the only draw just came in, the only likely good one pair hand also has you drawing to only 3 outs. All in All, this is a fold. Played just right, however. Bit more on flop, as someone else mentioned, might be in order -- but it's a minor niggle.