NL 50: Enough FE here to push this combo-draw?

[Pokerdemic]

Ok. I would like comments on my thought process here. I've been thinking about this hand quite a bit. This is a very marginal situation. The safe thing here is to fold to his re-raise, as I don't think I have enough equity against his range to continue. But I want to talk about what would happen if I took the high-variance route and pushed the draw.

I've been at the table for about 150 hands. Villain is running 18/12/2 and I have seen nothing unusual for him. I have been uber card dead, and I am running 8/4/3. So the call preflop might be marginal (should I have 3bet??) but I was running so dead I thought I might be able to pull a move with position. I was wondering what you think my FE here is, if any, if I push this draw.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.50
BB: $24.80
UTG: $27.10
MP: $99.70
CO: $50.00
Hero (BTN): $50.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.50</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $11.50</font>, <font color="red">What is the FE if hero pushes against his range?


So I was thinking that a set might just call my raise on the flop. And since he re-raised his range is most likely an overpair 88+ with 88 and 99 the least likely. But my FE is different for two different ranges for him right? For example, what is the FE for him if he has 88-TT versus JJ-AA?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.641 secs 55,600 games/sec

Board: 5s 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.162% 46.09% 00.08% 16425 27.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 53.838% 53.76% 00.08% 19161 27.00 { 88+ }


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If I add the sets to his range and he is 3betting because of the FD on the board, then my equity falls a little:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44,550 games 0.005 secs 8,910,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 7h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.688% 43.63% 00.06% 19436 27.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 56.312% 56.25% 00.06% 25060 27.00 { 77+, 55-44 }


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[Daniel LeClaire]

Well, you can't fold to his reraise because he made it way to small. You at least have to call.

Reraising, calling, or folding are all fine pf. On the flop you should raise a more. This gives you more FE and, if he reraises you, makes shoving easy. After he reraises I would probably just shove. He's played the whole hand very weakly so 'I will put him to teh test'.

[cjp010]

Wish you'd raised more, but i'd find a way to shove this flop at him, you can take it down right now with the money in it or get good.

[Pokerdemic]

So my flop raise should have been the pot rather than 2/3? And given my numbers what does he think my range is when I raise his flop bet?