20NL TPGK turn c/r Baluga??

[MrWooster]

Villain is about 37/2/1 over 400ish hands, the minraise on the turn looks like he is trying to get value, are the only hands he can have here 44, 55, 66, I don't think with his AF he does this without a made hand, and apart from the unlikely 23/78 for the strait, I don't think there is anything I beat apart from KJ/KT - is this a clear fold to such a small c/r - or do you call and re-evaluate river - if you call - what is the river plan?

Thanks


Carlos Poker 0.10/0.20, hand converted by the iPoker Converter (http://www.talking-poker.com/hands/converter.aspx) at Talking-Poker (http://www.talking-poker.com)

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Button ($25.92)
SB SB ($33.47)
BB ($20.00)
UTG ($22.23)
UTG+1 Hero ($20.00)
CO ($19.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
1 fold, Hero raises to 0.80, 1 fold, Button calls 0.80, SB calls 0.70, 1 fold.

Flop (2.60) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, Hero bets 1.85, 1 fold, SB calls 1.85.

Turn (6.30) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, Hero bets 4.00, SB raises to 8.00, Hero ???

[ama0330]

With a higher af I would definitely call and see a river, but given your read I feel like you're toast here. Note that a fold here is not standard for me. Given that you have position I like to call and see a river, just because a standard player will have some kind of draw here a decent amount of the time.

I'd make a reads-based fold.

[BoerfSt]

Looking at his af it seems we are beat. Folding the turn is the best option.Alot of hand have you beat here.Even if you call the turn its very hard to call a pot sized bet on the river.

[cooker3]

Considering your read it's an easy fold

[MrWooster]

OK - thanks - as you say - his line is very strong and I can't see anything we beat here. I ended up calling the turn bet and folded to his shove on the blank river, though in retrospect, I don't really know what I was hoping for on the river... I think I am drawing dead here, even to trips.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
OK - thanks - as you say - his line is very strong and I can't see anything we beat here. I ended up calling the turn bet and folded to his shove on the blank river, though in retrospect, I don't really know what I was hoping for on the river... I think I am drawing dead here, even to trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think your line is okay against a more aggressive opponent (tho i would be tempted to call the river)

[MrWooster]

Turn (6.30) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, Hero bets 4.00, SB raises to 8.00, Hero calls 4.00.

River (22.30) J/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets 11.80 (AI), 1 fold


I really don't think I can call here AMA - with an AF of 1 over a large sample (albeit datamined) - would you ever call here getting 3-1?

[Lawman]

I'm never sure how much to rely on PT stats. If he had a VPIP of 15% then he's clearly passive. But does that change as VPIP goes up. In other words can a post flop AF of 1 be considered in isolation or do you need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP?

[MrWooster]

You need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP, and as far as I know (please correct if wrong), in general the higher the VPIP/PFR, the higher the AF for the same amount of aggression, so for a villain with such a high VPIP, this is an especially low AF. (Correct?)

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
are the only hands he can have here 44, 55, 66,

[/ QUOTE ]
On a general note, paired cards is a vv small part of villains pf range so I generally discount sets from villains with these stats. If you are beat here I think it is much more likely he has 2pair or a straight. I would call turn and river.

[crushednuts]

I think calling a river push is spewy. What do you beat w/ TP2K on the river? Basically all you beat is a bluff as I don't think someone this passive goes crazy w/ KT or KJ or Kh7h. I would probably just fold the turn because of this guys stats and the c/minraise on turn is a very scary line from such a villain. I would bet he flopped a set here and small pairs are a HUGE part of his range ON THE TURN when he makes the check raise. I agree they aren't that big PF but they are a huge part of his range given the line he took (c/c followed by c/ minraise).

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP, and as far as I know (please correct if wrong), in general the higher the VPIP/PFR, the higher the AF for the same amount of aggression, so for a villain with such a high VPIP, this is an especially low AF. (Correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]
It is the other way around. It is: ((bets+raises)/calls). The higher the VPIP, the less times he will flop tptk+, the less times he will legitimatly have something to bet and raise with. If you only ever play KK+, your AF will be through the roof.

[Ricky_Bobby]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP, and as far as I know (please correct if wrong), in general the higher the VPIP/PFR, the higher the AF for the same amount of aggression, so for a villain with such a high VPIP, this is an especially low AF. (Correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking it was the other way around?

The more hands he is playing the more often he will be missing flops and playing passively.

Or am I wrong?

[Lawman]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to look at it in conjunction with VPIP, and as far as I know (please correct if wrong), in general the higher the VPIP/PFR, the higher the AF for the same amount of aggression, so for a villain with such a high VPIP, this is an especially low AF. (Correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agreed until the conclusion. AF is a ratio of bets and raises to calls. If a player is very loose preflop and has an AF of 2, he is betting/raising twice as much as calling - but potentially with "weaker" hands.

A very tight player preflop with an AF of 2 is still betting/raising twice as much as calling but with much "stronger" hands.

Intuitively this would suggest that when players have the same AF, the one with the higher VPIP is the more aggressive. However, I'm not sure that this is entirely relevant in NL (and hence my question), because AF does not include folds and check-folds. What if you took a great relatively tight and aggressive player and made him play 50% of his starting hands but let him play his own game post flop. Would his AF be any different from his normal tighter game? I think the concept does apply in limit because the relationship between starting hand rank and subsequent action is more predictable.

I think it's relevant to this topic because many of us use PT as a mechanism for characterising players and hence putting them on a range. Thoughts anyone?

[orig!naL]

I fold to the min-raise with this marginal of a hand.