25NL - Good time to bluff?

[JimboNYY24]

Villian is 19/13/2 over 155 hands. I've played pretty straightforward against him up to this point. He seems like a thinking player, maybe even a 2+2er. I decided to float this flop because he cbets near 100% of the time and with the backdoor nut draw it didn't seem like such a bad time for a float. He checks turn as i expected so i bet. His river lead looks soooo weak. I obviously can't win by calling. Flush draw got there and I/other people do sometimes play flushdraws like this. What do you guys think about a raise? At this point I put him KQ-K10 trying to get to showdown cheaply, as well as some small flushes.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players -
SB: $25.00
BB: $27.75
UTG: $16.80
CO: $45.00
Hero (BTN): $26.05

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $1.75</font>, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.85) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50

River: ($12.85) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $4.00</font>

[doppelganger]

Seems like either a weak K trying to get to showdown as you said, or a medium PP like 88-TT betting for value.

Either one would probably fold to a big raise, but it has to be successful an awful lot of the time to be +EV.

[JimboNYY24]

Honest question here, I'm not sure how the math would go: If I raise $10, I risk 10 to win 16, 5:8. So I have to win ~62% of the time to break even. Am I doing the math right? And if I was in his shoes, I lean towards folding all kings and mid pocket pairs near 100% of the time to a raise here unless I have a really good read. Anyone disagree/agree? I'd like to hear your thoughts.

[doppelganger]

You're risking 10 to win 16, which means you're getting 16:10 pot odds, or 1.6:1. That means he must fold 1/2.6 times to break even, or about 38% of the time.

[JimboNYY24]

Ah that sounds much better. I obviously suck at math, thanks for clarifying that.

Does anyone else have any comments now that we got the math out of the way?

[Micro Donk]

but youre giving him nearly 5:1 to call with that raise

[JimboNYY24]

It will be 10 for him to win 22. That's not 5:1, right?

[Nightlight87]

He only has to call $6 to see the raise. Which gives him 6:22 or 1:3.7 so he has to win 1/4.7 or 21% of the time to break even. Someone correct me if im wrong please.

[foal]

Sometimes at 25NL I'll get a good read that someone is weak, and I'll make a largeish bet that I'd never call with the sort of hand I put them on. Sometimes they'll call, I'll see that my read was spot-on and yet they take the pot. Just make sure you think he's capable of folding a king, look for a high won at showdown % and high fold to turn/river bet numbers. I think a bluff looks good here if everything's in order.

[CobraGoat]

IF you are gonna bluff this river, i think the only play is to move all in. I personally do not like bluffs like these at these stakes. I think your bluff looks much more menacing if you check behind on turn and raise his block on river. That line is cheaper as well. As played, I think you made your bluff on the turn, it didn't work, now villain is betting into you on river....I would fold.

[JimboNYY24]

[ QUOTE ]
He only has to call $6 to see the raise. Which gives him 6:22 or 1:3.7 so he has to win 1/4.7 or 21% of the time to break even. Someone correct me if im wrong please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonono I meant raising 10 dollars not raising 6 TO 10 dollars. So yeah, I think it would be different.

With regards to shoving, I felt that by not shoving (I only left myself like 4 dollars behind after my raise) it would look to my opponent that I really wanted at least a call here. Maybe I'm overcomplicating things but I felt this raise would appear less like a possible bluff to him, thus more likely to fold.

Anyway he typed in chat "44 is good" and folded so I'm pretty happy with how it worked out.

[Nightlight87]

Ah well in that case he has to call $10 into a $32.85 pot. 10:32.85 --&gt; 1:3.285 or 1/4.285 ~23%. So his odds aren't that much worse. I think I'd fold rather than shoot again. I think if I was going to bluff I'd raise him on the flop thinking that a weak king will fold, and if he calls then you know you are behind.

[JimboNYY24]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah well in that case he has to call $10 into a $32.85 pot. 10:32.85 --&gt; 1:3.285 or 1/4.285 ~23%. So his odds aren't that much worse. I think I'd fold rather than shoot again. I think if I was going to bluff I'd raise him on the flop thinking that a weak king will fold, and if he calls then you know you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I still "know I'm behind" with how i played it. But he did narrow his hand range significantly to something really weak with how he played it. Few winning TAGs at NL25 make this call with just a king (against other straightforward TAGs)unless they are feeling very spewy. At least that's what I think.

[monkeymaps]

meh prob looks more like a flush if you checked turn but OTOH does anyone ever make that river bet with a hand that calls a raise?

I mean that would be a pretty sick value bet with like a small PP.
most likely TP ok kicker and like 88-TT are his range here and if you push he will fold most times IMO.