How to get most value on draw heavy board?

[RedSoxFan]

When I hit the flop very well and the board is draw heavy (2 suited or 2 connected cards) is it good to bet the pot (or more?) so people on draws aren't getting odds to call.

Say I PFR w/ AdKs and flop is AhKc5c. I clearly have best hand (outside of a set) and want to get the most value for hand. But the 2 suited cards scare me so I PSR so they are not getting the odds to call. However, even a PSR gives then 2:1 pot odds which is good (assuming no bet on turn). Sometimes I do 1/2pot so they will stay and I can get value but sucks when they catch the flush or straight.

Any suggestions on how to get the most value out of a good hand (w/ little chance of improving) on a draw heavy board. Do you just try to take it down there and move on to the next hand?

[Milky]

I always bet pot or very near it when I've hit my hand or I'm cbetting on a wet flop. Don't give them good odds to chase because they'll pay whatever you bet for their draws! They'll chase on the flop and turn against two pot size bets so make those bets!

[huhwhatyousay?]

It's -EV for an opponent to call 2 streets of PSBs to draw to a 8-9 out draw provided that you don't pay him off liberally when he hits. So, don't worry about it. Let him draw and be willing to get rid of your hand. Think about it this way. The initial pot size is 10 units (or something) on the flop. You bet 10 on the flop and he calls. He misses 83% of the time. The 17% of the time he hits, he wins the 20 in the pot. When he misses, you bet PS for 30 on the turn and he calls. Overall, he has called 40 units to win 50 units. He wins 50 17% of the time and loses 40 83% of the time.

So
A) He hits on the turn (17% gain of 20)
B) He misses on the turn and hits on the river (83% gain of 17% of 50)
C) He misses both times (83% of 83% loss of 40)

The net gain from cases A+B+C is (0.17)(20) + (0.83)(0.17)(50) - (0.83)(0.83)(40)

This adds up to an EG (Expected Gain) of 3.4 + 7.1 - 27.6 = -17.1.


On average, you gain 17.1 units.

Obviously this is a huge simplification. If you never get away from your hand, he can expect win more (or lose less). It just shows that you are generally +EV when your opponent is calling down PSB's drawing to 8-9 outs.

[Kasane]

pot or near it. When you bet pot, you're giving them 2-1. half pot, 3-1. 3-1 is much closer to what they need to continue profitably. What you're doing is charging more, in aggregate, to those draws when they call, making it more profitable overall for you and less for them when they hit. You're turning a small mistake, calling with a draw at 3-1, into a larger mistake. You're also decreasing their implied odds a smidgen.

This will increase your overall win rate.

[RedSoxFan]

I follow/agree so far- and I like doing this and getting a caller to chase 1-2 more streets. What I feel I am missing out on is when I PSB on these flops and the person isn't drawing but might have 2nd pair or something- a hand that they would hang around with for less but are still behind.

[Kasane]

When the flop is wet, their calling range includes a lot more draws and a lot less of the weak made stuff. You're betting against their range, not their actual hand. When they do call with the weak made hand, you're getting more value, too.

On a drier flop, their calling range is more polarized to monsters, weak made hands, and weak draws (overcards/gutters) -- you can bet less. Value is a higher priority and protection less.