NL25 - easy fold??

[ABCofPKR]

I called the pre flop raise for set value... stats: 45/4,5/1.6 44hands

his bet was pretty weak, but I made the plan? folding is -EV?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($57.95)
Hero ($32.80)
BB ($23.90)
UTG ($8)
MP ($41.95)
CO ($21.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6</font>, Button folds, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($13) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4.5</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $13

[kroeliewoelie]

Why not bet out on the flop?

[Nemesis69]

I think I'd still cbet this flop. Fold to a reraise or proceed with caution if he calls.

[mr_npiv]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet out on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Kasane]

Hero can't cbet this flop. BB was the final raiser.

If hero bets oop, it's a donk.

[wooziephantom]

I would typically donk this flop, but with these stats the villain's four bet oop makes me feel like he's range got u crushed... If u get raised fold.. His flop bet is weak (but also a typical bet at these stakes with a strong hand).. Any reads on his betting patterns from earlier hands?

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
I would typically donk this flop, but with these stats the villain's four bet oop makes me feel like he's range got u crushed... If u get raised fold.. His flop bet is weak (but also a typical bet at these stakes with a strong hand).. Any reads on his betting patterns from earlier hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

donking this flop sucks...
if you get called what do you want to do?
if he folds well you just folded out a worse hand...
if he raises you´re [censored]...
your main problem is the way you played preflop. you have to make a decision right there. you can´t call for set value and you apparently didn´t want to call for overpair value. why do you call if you fold to a cbet since villain will obv cbet AK and also AA or KK or whatever a high % of the time.
Imo you screwed up preflop big time and that is why you battling on the flop. c/f really sucks though.

[IAGTTAYM]

The problem with leading in this situation is that villain can easily fold out the hands that we beat, mainly AK and maybe even TT, as its pretty obvious he has very little fold equity if we bet like $8.

Soo, unless we have been out of line, I think c/f is the best play.

[ama0330]

One thing that is definite is that you cant "just call". You have to either push all in or fold.

Given the preflop action I think it is safe to assume that he either has a monster (like a big pair) or air (like AJ/AK/AQ). An argument could be made for pushing just on the small size of his bet but given how unpredictable these players are with their bet sizing, it doesnt tell us too much.

Remember also that if he has AKdd then you're actually behind. I think I can just fold this one and move on. He only has a 4.5pfr, which means that his 3betting range is likely to be pretty small.

[kroeliewoelie]

I am struggling with these situations also, after the first replies suggest to donk this flop, the later ones suggest c/f.

But against a range of the other JJ combo, QQ+, AQ, AK you still have like 50% equity. If you are not planning on betting this flop (hoping to take the pot down), then you aren't basically betting any flop without a J.

I read somewhere else that you need to make about 11.6 times your initial investment to justify calling for setvalue. Since you call the 4bet for $2.5, you need to make $30 dollars on average. I think this unrealistic, so then I should suggest folding to 4bet preflop is better.

[monkover]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that is definite is that you cant "just call". You have to either push all in or fold.

Given the preflop action I think it is safe to assume that he either has a monster (like a big pair) or air (like AJ/AK/AQ). An argument could be made for pushing just on the small size of his bet but given how unpredictable these players are with their bet sizing, it doesnt tell us too much.

Remember also that if he has AKdd then you're actually behind. I think I can just fold this one and move on. He only has a 4.5pfr, which means that his 3betting range is likely to be pretty small.

[/ QUOTE ]


do you advise calling preflop though?
you can´t do it for set value obv...

[ama0330]

Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[IAGTTAYM]

You flop a set 1:8.5.
BB starts the hand with 23.90, if we estimate that we get 75% of his stack every time we flop the set: (23.9*0.75 + 4.5)/(2.5)=8.97
Depending on how sure Im about villains 3-betting range in this situation, calling preflop for pure set value could be ok, but its close either way.

[kindergartencop]

how bad is c/c and see if he fires turn again? villian bet tiny, i agree with ama he either has a big pair or ak/aq air type hands. with this low of an af and such a small flop bet can we call and reevaluate turn here ever?

[kroeliewoelie]

if we cbet 2/3 pot, then we break even by inducing folds if he folds

p*13 -(1-p)*8.7 = 21.7*p -8.7=0 --&gt; p=0.4

if he only holds AK, QQ+, then these are 16+6+6+6=34 holdings. Assuming he will only call with AdKd and QQ+ and not with backdoor draws, he will fold 15 of these, which is 44% of his range. So even then it might be slightly profitable to cbet. This is assuming total rational behaviour of course. Which I find a doubtful assumption, so adding to that that we're out of position, I would fold to 4bet preflop. It's marginal at best post flop.

[Lawman]

[ QUOTE ]
I called the pre flop raise for set value

[/ QUOTE ]

Would it be weak-tight to fold pre-flop after the BB reraise and button fold? You aren't getting much in the way of "set value" since villain's only got about $18 left relative to a $13 pot. Also although you can't rely too much on his stats, villain appears to be a tight raiser relative to his general looseness. Can you put him on a broader range than AK, AA-QQ after a raise and a reraise in front of him? If not your pot equity is poor and not made up for by implied odds if you hit your set. In fact the odds are so poor that his range would have to be really wide to make this worthwhile, in which case a preflop push might be better (if you think his range is so wide).

Once you've decided to call, what was your commitment plan on the flop? You've got a pretty decent flop and ended up folding to a small continuation bet.

You haven't given any of the buttons stats, but would the hand have played any easier if you had just called the button preflop raise?

[wooziephantom]

[ QUOTE ]

donking this flop sucks...
if you get called what do you want to do?
if he folds well you just folded out a worse hand...
if he raises you´re [censored]...
your main problem is the way you played preflop. you have to make a decision right there. you can´t call for set value and you apparently didn´t want to call for overpair value. why do you call if you fold to a cbet since villain will obv cbet AK and also AA or KK or whatever a high % of the time.
Imo you screwed up preflop big time and that is why you battling on the flop. c/f really sucks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that pf is bad, but I think a donk bet here is better than a ch/c when u're in this spot..
The fact that u might fold out a worse hand, is that terrible in this spot? Isn't it better to fold out a worse hand here than to get bluffed out of it?
If he calls u have to play poker with the hand and be on the outlook for timing tells, it might lead u to having to muck this hand on later streets, but it might pick u up a nice pot as well... If u get raised on the flop u fold (without reads)... Are u arguing for ch/c-ing it down? (I know u wouldn't have been in this spot in the first place and neither would I..)

[ABCofPKR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I called the pre flop raise for set value

[/ QUOTE ]

Once you've decided to call, what was your commitment plan on the flop? You've got a pretty decent flop and ended up folding to a small continuation bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

ow well, I really didnt had the odds to call. Im not pushing in these spots with JJ either, I know that they are not 3betting with worse hands than AA, KK, QQ... even AK and AQ they dont do that...

maybe if we were big stakes my call for set value would be correct...

donk bet is pretty ugly, I dont like making that move... if I bet the flop he will reraise me like 80% of the time with AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ... and I cant call with JJ...

so, I think my mistake was the call PF, btw; even it was a very small bet(c-net) on the flop, I didnt want to put my ships knowing Im probably beaten...

ty all the posts

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here ? Preflop is easy call for set value only. He has to win about 22$ from the pot and only has to invest 2.5$ more. Even if villain is holding AK it`s +EV IMO.

[ABCofPKR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is close. I would call if I thought there was a chance my Jacks were good, but I wouldn't just call for set value. Obviously pretty read dependant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here ? Preflop is easy call for set value only. He has to win about 22$ from the pot and only has to invest 2.5$ more. Even if villain is holding AK it`s +EV IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]


thats what I thought when I was playing the hand... just $2.5 in a big pot... btw, I continue folding on the flop...

[solinar]

He raises 4.5% of hands PF and likely rarely bluffs with an aggression factor of 1.6. Hes not 4betting AK or AQ. Unless you have a major read, hes got KK or AA and hes not folding.

You have to call $2.50 to win his $36(pot plus his stack). I would call the min 4-bet for set value and muck to his cbet.

[orig!naL]

[ QUOTE ]
if we estimate that we get 75% of his stack every time we flop the set

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you did here, but I want to point out I really think this only applies in 3 and 4-bet pots. If you are calling a single pf raise with a pair and hit your set, its not accurate to assume on average you will get 75% of the persons stack (unless of course its some aggro calling station).

Back to the hand. I don't mind a fold to the 4-bet. It's a little unpredictable, but I doubt you are ahead here enough to make this +EV. As played, fold flop.