NL50 JJ turn brings A

[xeanatic]

Villian is a real station, what's my turn play here?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.50
BB: $47.15
UTG: $56.00
MP: $63.10
CO: $54.35
Hero (BTN): $57.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $5.00

Flop: ($14.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11.00</font>, MP calls $11.00

Turn: ($36.75) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero?

[rjacobs003]

I probably fire about $25 on the turn again. If he calls/raises I'm not putting in anymore money. Hopefully he calls and checks to me on the river for free showdown. Any other reads on this guy?

[fl1p]

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I probably fire about $25 on the turn again. If he calls/raises I'm not putting in anymore money. Hopefully he calls and checks to me on the river for free showdown. Any other reads on this guy?

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[xeanatic]

firing $25 makes us commited to call a push because we have like $7 left..

[rjacobs003]

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firing $25 makes us commited to call a push because we have like $7 left..

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Woops missed this. Sry man. Push it is then....

[Boredom]

Can somebody explain why betting here is better than checking behind? Surely we don't get called by worse if we push, but is getting KK, QQ or the other JJ to fold part of the equation that makes betting here a good deal? Are we afraid of getting bluffed out on river if we check behind? If we are afraid of getting bluffed out, do we think that he will ever turn 77, 99 or TT into bluffs? Or is it just spades without an A or some kind of straight draw (if those are even in his pf r range that is) Somebody explain this to me.

[xeanatic]

isn't this bad? because what hands do call us that we are ahead of here? I think a push here will be called by better hands and worse hands fold.

And don't you think the A is a pretty big part of villians range here? Since the 3bet PF and the fact that he is a station and prob calls the flop with overs?

[TheRenaissance]

Easy turn check imo.

[xeanatic]

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Easy turn check imo.

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what's your plan for the river? assume it is a blank and what do you do when it is a spade?

[TheRenaissance]

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Easy turn check imo.

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what's your plan for the river? assume it is a blank and what do you do when it is a spade?

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If river is a blank call a bet up to *pulls number out of ass* 21.5.
If it is a spade, fold.

Our hand really isnt that hot when the ace falls. Not because villain always has an ace (though he will have it a lot), but because he will be hard pressed to call us again without one. Now there are callstations and there are GOT DAM CALLSTATIONS - if villain is in the latter category, ok, maybe a valuebet on the turn is in order. But most villains are of the former type - they like to call with draws and peel with overs, but they will fold turn/river if you make it blatantly obvious they are crushed.

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain why betting here is better than checking behind? Surely we don't get called by worse if we push, but is getting KK, QQ or the other JJ to fold part of the equation that makes betting here a good deal? Are we afraid of getting bluffed out on river if we check behind? If we are afraid of getting bluffed out, do we think that he will ever turn 77, 99 or TT into bluffs? Or is it just spades without an A or some kind of straight draw (if those are even in his pf r range that is) Somebody explain this to me.

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in general the idea is that if villain is truly a station his range includes much more than Ax, QQ+. we can expect to see fd's, sd's. we're betting b/c he's a station and will call; however since this is a 3bet pot, checking behind and then value betting a blank river is a good plan.

if villain is calling 3bets light, then it's safe to bet again.

[Upgrade_U]

I bet 27.5 and fold to a raise - repping an ace there will easily put every thinking players hand into doom unless he has Ax spades or a set.
Actually check behind and call a OK sized bet on the riv

thoughts ?

[resboard]

If you bet $27.5 and fold i think thats terrible. You would have put in $45.5 and your going to fold for $13 more? The pot would be like ~8.5:1. If your going to fold to a raise, don't bet it.

[Upgrade_U]

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If you bet $27.5 and fold i think thats terrible. You would have put in $45.5 and your going to fold for $13 more? The pot would be like ~8.5:1. If your going to fold to a raise, don't bet it.

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The idea of making that bet is to represent the ace on the turn, which makes our holdings irrelevant ( we will be playing our hand as a bluff) and by checking behind on the turn villain will most likely think that that ace was a scarecard for you and bet big on the riv to push you off your hand - obv only if he's a thinking player.

Actually I would shove that turn because that would give you more FE if villain is not holding an ace or a set.

[Rafpig]

I think betting this turn is pretty bad. Check and see what river brings and what he does. Calling stations are not so agressive, he might as well check river, so you don´t have to be so worried about being bluffed out. If river is a blank and he bets, it´s really tough, but I would probably call a not so big bet.

[Chomp]

The point about checking turn is not simply that villain's range is very wide and contains mainly non-A hands, it is also how we get the most value from those hands with our JJ. If betting the turn causes him to fold TT, then delaying that vb till the river is best.

For me this is a no-brainer check behind on turn. Betting to me is horrible. I also highly doubt that this monkey tries to donk-steal river by repping the A. Not likely.

Just IMO.

[Chomp]

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If you bet $27.5 and fold i think thats terrible. You would have put in $45.5 and your going to fold for $13 more? The pot would be like ~8.5:1. If your going to fold to a raise, don't bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]
The idea of making that bet is to represent the ace on the turn, which makes our holdings irrelevant ( we will be playing our hand as a bluff) and by checking behind on the turn villain will most likely think that that ace was a scarecard for you and bet big on the riv to push you off your hand - obv only if he's a thinking player.

Actually I would shove that turn because that would give you more FE if villain is not holding an ace or a set.

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Some random questions:

&gt; Why do we want FE?
&gt; And against what hands/range of hands?
&gt; Do we want villain to fold TT-?
&gt; Is villain ever folding a set/2p/Ax to our push?
&gt; Are KK or QQ in any way a significant part of villain's range?
&gt; How often does a station (which is OP's read) bluff-shove river on the basis of our turn check?
&gt; Could we not sniff out this bluff on occasion and snap it off?
&gt; Will villain call a modest vb on the river with &lt;JJ?
&gt; Do we need to protect on turn? If so, against which hands/how many outs?

When I go through these questions, I can't come to any conclusion other than checking turn.

And bet/folding turn is simply not an option.

[CarmeloAnthony]

if he's a fish i'd just bet the turn and let him pay me off with a donkish type hand or a busted draw and get the money in when its good!

on the conservative end i'd probably check turn and if he pulls out a small to medium size bet i'd call and pay him off. If the spade falls i'm folding depending on how big the bet is.

[traz]

check it down. I probably fold to a significant river bet. If he has TT/99 then nh, but QQ/AK is more likely if he fires hard on the river.

Not scared of spades here ever

[jackrich00]

I think i would check the turn and then just call almost any bet on the river unless a spade hits and then i think your in a tricky situation and id hope he bets small..

[jackrich00]

The check on the turn is to induce a bluff on the river either from a missed flush draw or him recognising that the A was a scare card and him trying to bluff with his 1010 etc.

[citizenwind]

great post

[Loramov]

Why do we want to turn JJ into a bluff? Vilain will only fold hands that we already beat. I don't think vilain folds anything that is better than our hand there other than QQ maybe.

If he's a real station he might call with a flush draw but that doesnt happen enough. He will have an ace more often or a pocket. An ace will call and pockets under JJ will probably fold. QQ is probably the only hand that we can bluff out.

Easy check for me on turn and i probably call a small bet on river but im thinking he will check there unless flush hits.