AA facing flop raise on drawy flop, poker stove analysis.

[JROK777]

NL50 100bb stacks

Hero raises pf to $2. Villian calls $2 on the button. The rest of the table folds. The flop comes Qh7h2s. Hero bets $4 into a 4.75 pot. Villian raises to $12-14 or shoves. The standard 2+2 line is to call shove or 3 bet all in. If villian won't raise the flop w/ a hand as good as AQo, we are really behind. I plugged a range in that villian would be happy to get all in on this flop below. I think we are crushed. If we add a slow played KK and QQ to villians range, we are about 50/50. Against a good opponent, in a 2 bet pot pf, we are crushed if all the $ goes in. You guys see anything wrong with this analysis?

Hand 0: { AA } 35.723%

Hand 1: 64.277%
{ 77, 33, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h }

[kash munni]

I disagree that the standard line is to get all-in. It all depends on your opponent and a lot of the 50nl players have trouble folding top pair so playing AA fast v them is +ev.

[Micro Donk]

well first of all you should remove all the Qh hands, the Qh is on the flop, not in your opponents hand...second, youre vastly overrating the average player at 50NL. third, you put 33 in his range...did you mean 22?...fourth, they arent only doing this with draws

[huhwhatyousay?]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77,220 games 0.005 secs 15,444,000 games/sec

Board: Qh 7h 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.138% 39.14% 00.00% 30222 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 60.862% 60.86% 00.00% 46998 0.00 { 77, 22, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, KhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 6h5h }


If the ratio of sets:draws is around 1:1.33 - 1:1.5 ish, you're looking at around 37-40% pot equity vs. this range. Considering dead money in the pot, you need around 38-42% or so equity to continue. If you 3bai here, villain has the odds to call w/ a 36% draw. It looks like you're in decent shape vs. this range. Minute amounts of fold equity + a few combos of AQ/KQ and you're suddenly +EV here.

Note: The drawing hands I chose were sorta arbitrary, since 54hh pretty much = AJhh vs. AA on this board.