50 NL AK pre against aggressive stealer 5 bet shove?

[starkwired]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $50.25
Hero (BB): $62.90
UTG: $66.65
MP: $17.65
CO: $50.90
BTN: $68.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $15.00</font>, Hero ?

Lot of metagame stuff going on here (to me at least). Villain is an aggressive TAG (17/14/3, 300 hands) reg. He'd been stealing from the cutoff almost every orbit and I started reraising him liberally (probably every third steal or so). I finally pick up a legit hand to reraise with, and he three bets me. If villain is a thinking player, he might put me on a steal and make the play with a small PP or whatever, which I would rather just fold at this point, so I'm thinking shove. Do you guys fold here, or even just call? Maybe I'm giving the villain too much credit for thinking about what I'm stealing him with. Obviously the hand plays differently if I'm not OOP/the one facing a 4 bet. Does his bet size matter? Thanks for the opinions.

[whyzze]

arrrrrrr in


Add this to your repitoire

"NEVER CALL A 4BET PREFLOP (well maybe with aces)"

[hitch1978]

Push and prey.

[onesandzeros]

At best you will be racing. Worst your up against aa or kk which sounds plausible given co's action. This is a cash game, not a tournament. You should have flat called co's raise to $2 preflop. Since you re raised however, now a flat call of his re raise makes sense...see what the flop brings.

You want to keep the pot small so that if you miss you can get away from it without getting pot committed. In this situation.

[yapee]

I think calling is... well meh. 2/3 of the time flop comes all undercards, pot is $30, you have $35 behind, and what? c/f? Even the 1/3 you hit you may still be behind. The villain may be TAG, but a light 4bet is so, so rare... I really think it's QQ+ most of the time, so you'd have to fold.

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
At best you will be racing. Worst your up against aa or kk which sounds plausible given co's action. This is a cash game, not a tournament. You should have flat called co's raise to $2 preflop. Since you re raised however, now a flat call of his re raise makes sense...see what the flop brings.

You want to keep the pot small so that if you miss you can get away from it without getting pot committed. In this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to be hostile, but this is terrible advice, and wrong on all accounts.

A flat call of that steal is GROSS oop with an unmade hand, and against a liberal raiser we would much rather take the pot down now, as a huge percentage of the time he is folding to our raise.

And once again, a flat call of his 3-bet is absolutely, horrendously gross IMO. What the hell do you do when the flop comes 279o? Lead out? Check fold? Check call (choke, awful)?

3-bet is standard. I think against an tag villain here I probably fold to the 4-bet, but if he has 4-bet me even just once before in the same session I probably push.

[whyherro]

yeah if you have the slightest inkling that his range is wider than AA,KK then you gotta shove this here.

[yapee]

[ QUOTE ]

3-bet is standard. I think against an tag villain here I probably fold to the 4-bet, but if he has 4-bet me even just once before in the same session I probably push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ama0330]

easy fold for me, imo we push to chop here. if you want to shove you need to be damn sure his 4bet is a bluff, because if hes betting for value you're never ahead

[members_only]

Given history, I'd shove this gleefully

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
At best you will be racing. Worst your up against aa or kk which sounds plausible given co's action. This is a cash game, not a tournament. You should have flat called co's raise to $2 preflop. Since you re raised however, now a flat call of his re raise makes sense...see what the flop brings.

You want to keep the pot small so that if you miss you can get away from it without getting pot committed. In this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is like the worst advice ever. Calling the $2 raise woulda been absolutely terrible. And now calling the raise to $15 is pretty bad...unless maybe you plan to shove any flop....and I still think that's not very good.

[ajmargarine]

Push or fold. DON'T CALL.

[Spanky1974]

Push or fold. I would guess both have about the same EV. Depending on how much variance you can take, folding might make you less likely to tilt.

[kash munni]

With the history I get it all in there.
-Does anyone think that the 3 bet is too small?
-What does everyone do if you are facing this bet with QQ?

[LegendLength]

Easy push given the history. Don't call, AK likes to see all 5 cards.

[CarmeloAnthony]

i'd prefer folding given the history you provided. You have been 3betting him and now villain plays back at you with a hand most likely. I'm saying he has at worst JJ+ here.

[Rafpig]

I would have re-raised one BB more due to the fact that I´m oop. Now, if this is the first time he 4-bets you, I think you have to fold. We only have evidence that is raising liberally, not 4-betting. If he start doing this more often, then I guess you have to shove.

[starkwired]

Re: the raising size, I normally raise more OOP, I'm not sure why it isn't at least 7 (misclick?).

I would never call here, but I wanted to see what people think. Seems to be pretty evenly split. I think what Rafpig says makes the most sense, since it was the first time this villain had 4 bet me. Notice also that his 4 bet is pretty small. I realized thinking about this hand later that if he wanted me out he would probably have made a bigger size 4 bet. Why make it so small giving me the odds to call?

[onesandzeros]

I totally disagree. I think a shove is self weighting here given the action. Villian can easily play 88-AA like he did, especially if he puts hero on 2 overs, namly ak etc. If you shove here you are going to be getting called by pp's, the same hand, or AA KK. You will win small pots and lose big ones. AK is an unmade hand and shoving here would be a huge overplay I think.

Unlikely he will fold to a shove here, so what do you think he has given the action? What are you beating pre flop? Aq, Axs....not much. You have an unmade hand and are fishing....

Fold or flat call preflop.

Shoving ak here is weak.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree. I think a shove is self weighting here given the action. Villian can easily play 88-AA like he did, especially if he puts hero on 2 overs, namly ak etc. If you shove here you are going to be getting called by pp's, the same hand, or AA KK. You will win small pots and lose big ones. AK is an unmade hand and shoving here would be a huge overplay I think.

Unlikely he will fold to a shove here, so what do you think he has given the action? What are you beating pre flop? Aq, Axs....not much. You have an unmade hand and are fishing....

Fold or flat call preflop.

Shoving ak here is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 100 BB stacks flat calling a 3bet pre-flop with AK can be good. Flat calling a raise and flat calling a 4bet is not good.

AK is a hand that needs to see all 5 cards. And versus 88-AA it is +ev here with the overlay in the pot. You can't call and then fold the flop.

[onesandzeros]

your exactly correct.

[aaiiooo]

Hey champstark, I think I was UTG on this table at the time.

I remember this hand because I thought it was fairly spewy on the part of a regular (ie. you :]) no offence

I have villain as 20/14/2 over about 250 hands but really very straightforward, not particularly imaginative, quite passive compared to many of the regular tags at 50nl. You had 3 bet him twice before, but my read on him was that he wasnt someone who would 4 bet without a monster, especially that small.

I think you're thinking 2 levels ahead here. Solid 50nl multitabler= he's thinking on level 1, you're on level 3 when with this guy you should be on level 2.

I'd fold AKo here btw

[netstorm]

If JJ is in his range your equity looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

554,786,496 games 0.040 secs 13,869,662,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


if he only does this with QQ+, AK, then it looks like this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.005 secs 86,300,121,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

if we narrow his range down to QQ+, AKs, then it looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

287,667,072 games 0.005 secs 57,533,414,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.237% 26.44% 06.80% 76053324 19557456.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 66.763% 59.96% 06.80% 172498836 19557456.00 { QQ+, AKs }


Add in that he might even have air here (perhaps only 5% of the time) and this is an easy shove, considering your history.

[starkwired]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey champstark, I think I was UTG on this table at the time.

I remember this hand because I thought it was fairly spewy on the part of a regular (ie. you :]) no offence

I have villain as 20/14/2 over about 250 hands but really very straightforward, not particularly imaginative, quite passive compared to many of the regular tags at 50nl. You had 3 bet him twice before, but my read on him was that he wasnt someone who would 4 bet without a monster, especially that small.

I think you're thinking 2 levels ahead here. Solid 50nl multitabler= he's thinking on level 1, you're on level 3 when with this guy you should be on level 2.

I'd fold AKo here btw

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, I'll be the first to admit I have a good spew every now and then (trying to stop though!). Thanks for the info about the guy since I see him a lot.

[butcha]

This thread is so confusing.

Shouldn't this be the easiest fold ever?
You have only invested $6 and you obviously can't call this OOP, so why push in 100bb against someone, you don't have pinned as a maniac, 4-betting you at NL50?

There will surely be better spots if he is 4-betting here with something that doesn't totally crush you.
And also, don't take for granted that he catches on to you and starts making moves himself.
That's usually a recipe for disaster at these stakes.

Those who say this is an easy push might want to explain themselves further. At least to me.