20NL AQ faces turn decision

[MrWooster]

Villain is 22/6/1.9

Ok, so villains range includes a lot of 2pair combos (KT,KQ,QT?) and also a lot of strait draws (AT+, TJ) and also possible flush draws.

I am getting approx 3-1 odds on the turn to call, can I call here given that I could be way behind to a made strait or 2-pair, but villain could be betting because he was checked to..., and if you do call, do you c/f river?

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($20.32)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($23.30)</font>
MP ($20.40)
CO ($13.19)
Button ($26.09)
Hero ($19.78)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $0.80, CO folds.

Flop: ($2.40) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.7</font>, UTG calls $1.70.

Turn: ($5.80) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2.9</font>, Hero ???

[Spinners]

Std. fold.

[JROK777]

Anyone like just c/c the flop oop? Villians are going to raise us with draws and made hands. We could c/c and try to hit a str8 on the turn. If villian fires the turn we can fold. Just looks like a bad flop to cbet when we have a long shot draw to the nuts. We might also be ahead and keep from getting blasted out of the pot.

[learningthegame]

i find that a lot of weak players will lead with a bluff in this sort of a situation, because they know they cant win a showdown. I'd c/c the turn, and see what happens on the river.

[whyzze]

check flop

[shoxbb6]

I bet this flop 99% of the time. We have the best hand here a very large percentage of the time versus someone who limp/called preflop. There are a lot of draws to get value from/protection against(any J or spades aren't folding here). Also, villains stats inidcate that he isn't that aggro, so there is a strong possibility that he won't semibluff most of his draws.

I like firing this turn again, folding to a raise, and check/calling most river.

[MrWooster]

I am just worried that most of villains range hits this flop hard. I think my only real out might be the J and even then I could be splitting?

BTW - I always c-bet here knowing that mid PPs will fold.

[whyzze]

All a flop bet does is fold out the junk..and get calls from hands that beat you. so you have 2 options.

check flop - valuebet turn

cbet flop - c/f turn

double barreling this board is complete spew.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
I am just worried that most of villains range hits this flop hard. I think my only real out might be the J and even then I could be splitting?

BTW - I always c-bet here knowing that mid PPs will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think his limp/calling range is definitely skewed a lot more towards scs/pps than it is Kx type hands,

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
All a flop bet does is fold out the junk..and get calls from hands that beat you. so you have 2 options.

check flop - valuebet turn

cbet flop - c/f turn

double barreling this board is complete spew.

[/ QUOTE ]
Versus an opponent like villain, they will never fold any J or an spade here, so we are getting value and protection for our hand.
We have the initiative in this hand and can take it down a very large percentage of the time on the flop. Even if we don't take it down on the flop with a bet we are still ahead of villains range.

I think double barreling versus with what is most likely the best hands against a passive player who most likely is a fan of drawing isn't spew at all.

[whyzze]

villian isn't that passive...however we have some showdown value and we are OOP no point in bloating the pot.

[terrible]

[ QUOTE ]
All a flop bet does is fold out the junk..and get calls from hands that beat you. so you have 2 options.

check flop - valuebet turn

cbet flop - c/f turn

double barreling this board is complete spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

c/c flop also makes the hand very hard to play on later streets. given that this is an ugly spot anyway i see nothing wrong with betting flop and trying to get a cheap showdown/folding to any strength.

[MrWooster]

I don't think this villain is folding to a double barrel.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
villian isn't that passive...however we have some showdown value and we are OOP no point in bloating the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since I don't know what the sample size for villains stats are, I can't trust the given AF. So instead, I use pf stats, which with a large gap between vpip and pfr indicate that he's passive.

We aren't bloating the pot oop here, we're betting for protection here. Too many cards can come on the turn that will absolutley kill our action if we allow for a free card here.

[Napoleons Encore]

I'm with shox here. I think that he would have bet if he had a decent hand b/c of his AF. I'd double barrel he he re-raises I'm out. if he calls check the river down.

[whyzze]

I cant comprehend why we turn our hand into a bluff when we have some showdown value.

We are either going to win a small pot, lose a small pot if we play correctly, or lose a large pot.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant comprehend why we turn our hand into a bluff when we have some showdown value.

We are either going to win a small pot, lose a small pot if we play correctly, or lose a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this were a dry board, i'd be fine with trying to get to showdown. But this isn't a dry board at all, in fact it's one of the wettest boards you can get. We can actually win large pots with this hand too.

[MrWooster]

Stats are over about 400 hands so AF should be quite accurate, I do wonder if villain floated the flop here with a J or T and is betting the turn because he was checked too. AF of 2 for those stats is quite aggo isn't it?

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I cant comprehend why we turn our hand into a bluff when we have some showdown value.

We are either going to win a small pot, lose a small pot if we play correctly, or lose a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this were a dry board, i'd be fine with trying to get to showdown. But this isn't a dry board at all, in fact it's one of the wettest boards you can get. We can actually win large pots with this hand too.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I left out the 1 in 8 times we split/win a large pot.

If you bet turn unimproved then you have to bet or call river unimproved...its total spew.

[MrWooster]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I cant comprehend why we turn our hand into a bluff when we have some showdown value.

We are either going to win a small pot, lose a small pot if we play correctly, or lose a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this were a dry board, i'd be fine with trying to get to showdown. But this isn't a dry board at all, in fact it's one of the wettest boards you can get. We can actually win large pots with this hand too.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry I left out the 1 in 8 times we split/win a large pot.

If you bet turn unimproved then you have to bet or call river unimproved...its total spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this - I don't think I am going to win a big pot here, and if a J hits I could be splitting with another A

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry I left out the 1 in 8 times we split/win a large pot.

If you bet turn unimproved then you have to bet or call river unimproved...its total spew.

[/ QUOTE ]
If i lead turn, then river bricks and all draws missed, I'd be insanely happy to check/call the river and let him bluff his missed draws. Thats not spew at all.

[MrWooster]

shox - why do you put villain on a draw here?

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
shox - why do you put villain on a draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]
His range is mostly draws, not entirely draws, he'll sometime have a weak Kx here. This is mainly because limp/calls utg are nearly always suited connectors/gappers or small pps.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shox - why do you put villain on a draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]
His range is mostly draws, not entirely draws, he'll sometime have a weak Kx here. This is mainly because limp/calls utg are nearly always suited connectors/gappers or small pps.

[/ QUOTE ]

he is 22/6...your range is off

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shox - why do you put villain on a draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]
His range is mostly draws, not entirely draws, he'll sometime have a weak Kx here. This is mainly because limp/calls utg are nearly always suited connectors/gappers or small pps.

[/ QUOTE ]

he is 22/6...your range is off

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think so, 99% of the time that I've seen someone with those stats limp/call utg then get to showdown it's been a suited connector or a pocket pair.

[nukewell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shox - why do you put villain on a draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]
His range is mostly draws, not entirely draws, he'll sometime have a weak Kx here. This is mainly because limp/calls utg are nearly always suited connectors/gappers or small pps.

[/ QUOTE ]

he is 22/6...your range is off

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think so, 99% of the time that I've seen someone with those stats limp/call utg then get to showdown it's been a suited connector or a pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree, passive PF villians love limping QJ, KT, KJ, AT like hands also in early position.

i like checking flop and maybe get a value bet in somewhere depending on villians action behind and T/R cards