Theory of Pre-Flop 3 Bets

[AshleyC]

I've been thinking alot lately about 3 betting pre-flop, how often it is profitable and how people can be exploited if they call 3 bets too little / much.

Assuming 100bb stacks @ 50nl, if we open raise to $2 and get 3 bet pre-flop to $6.50, then an unknown villan can immediately show an EV profit by 3 betting us if we fold 70% of the time = 100% - ($2 + $0.25 + $0.50) / ($2 + $0.25 + $0.50 +$6.50).

If I am raising 17% of hands, say from middle position, then I am raising ~ 451 / 2652 hands.

I would say that this is a decent assumption for most of us here. For villan to exploit us, we have to fold 70% of the time, ie call only 30%. What % of our raising range are we calling with? It is obvioulsy player dependent, but assuming the raise is to $6.50, I have realised that my calling range is pretty easilly exploitable:

If it is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK then that is 46/2652 hands. [Each pair can be made 6 ways, 16 ways to make AK, total no hands is 52 x 51].

If we just call with this range, then this is 46/450 = 10% of our original raising range (2.5% of total hands); which is way below the 30% that the villan needs to make the 3 bet immediately profitable. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif If we add AQ and 99, it increases to 14%.

Moreover, this is not taking into acount any post flop advantage he has by taking the lead in the hand, and often having position. For example, we may call with TT, and check fold on a Q high flop to his c-bet with AK.

I've been thinking about how to make use of this in my game. 3 betting pre-flop seems such a powerfull tool.

Playing for 100bbs my range for calling 3 bets seems to be so narrow, pretty much TT, JJ/QQ, assuming it's not a donk min/small raise. I tend to 4 bet nearly always with KK, AA and AK a fair amount. Should I be just calling 3 bets with AA/KK more to merge my 3 bet calling range to punish villan for 3 betting me light? As I 4 bet with AK in alot of situations and ocassionally QQ, I would say my 4 betting range is actually wider than my 3 bet calling range.

Given the above should we be either be 4 betting more lightly or just calling 3 bets with our very big hands, AA/KK to merge our 3 betting range to prevent it from being so exploitable?

[K䲰䮥n]

switching tables suits me. good post btw hope this brings a "solution".

[kroeliewoelie]

So my first post here:

You are making a mistake when counting the number of hands. Since the order in which you receive them doesn't matter. That's why there are 6 AA combo's, namely 4*3/2=6 and not 12. The total number of possible hands is 52*51/2= 1326.

Haven't thought about the rest yet.

[Spurious]

nh, sir

need to think about it tho

[monkover]

well the thing at microstakes is that nobody will actually try to exploit you. You have to think about this though when you move up.

[Spinners]

Great post.

I think that you 3-bet light yourself. In this context though, I don't really think you should loosen up your 3-bet calling range, as that will just cost you money and is -EV in the long run. Also flat calling with AA and KK is ok for deception in some cases, but you shouldnt make a habit of just calling a 3-bet with them. Most opponents at uNL aren't very observant to begin with.

[Sharagoz]

Have you ever run into a NL50 player that has been 3 betting so light that you needed to adjust you strategy for it? I havent..
I have however been thinking about how to widen my own 3betting range since its such a powerfull weapon.

sbrugby aka aba20 aka Brian Townsend mention something about this when he was in the well in SSNL. I'll try to find the post


Here it is:

[ QUOTE ]
Another thought I had alwasy watch and analys the play of yoru opponents that give you the most trouble and incoroprate that into your game. I know I used to hardly reraise preflop until I ran into some aggressive opponents who constantly repoped me preflop and made me realize how powerful aggression is preflop. I then incorportated that into my game and now I think I have some of the best preflop ranges of any poker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, not too usefull in this context but I'll post it anyway since I spent 5mins trying to find it.


But your original question was how to adjust to somebody who 3bets you light. Out of position you tighten your opening range and widen your 4betting range. Calling lighter isnt such a good adjustment if you're out of position, because of the severe disadvantage postflop.
If you're in position then calling lighter is probably a profitable adjustment if you're willing to float your opponent on flops that likely missed him. 4betting lighter is a good adjustment too obviously. I dont think flat calling with AA/KK is a good adjustment if you at the same time widen your 4betting range. If you're gonna 4bet wider your opponent has to fear you having a power house.

Taylor Caby talks a bit about how to handle super agressive opponents in this video:
http://media.cardplayer.com/flash/g/GP_Cardplayer_4_HU.flv
(25mb, 10mins)
Btw, you need flv player (http://www.download.com/FLV-Player/3000-2139_4-10467081.html) to watch the video.
Optionally you can got to cardplayer tv and locate the cardrunner vid posted on september 7th

[AshleyC]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been thinking alot lately about 3 betting pre-flop, how often it is profitable and how people can be exploited if they call 3 bets too little / much.

Assuming 100bb stacks @ 50nl, if we open raise to $2 and get 3 bet pre-flop to $6.50, then an unknown villan can immediately show an EV profit by 3 betting us if we fold 70% of the time = 100% - ($2 + $0.25 + $0.50) / ($2 + $0.25 + $0.50 +$6.50).

If I am raising 17% of hands, say from middle position, then I am raising ~ 225 / 1326 hands.

I would say that this is a decent assumption for most of us here. For villan to exploit us, we have to fold 70% of the time, ie call only 30%. What % of our raising range are we calling with? It is obvioulsy player dependent, but assuming the raise is to $6.50, I have realised that my calling range is pretty easilly exploitable:

If it is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK then that is 46/1326 hands. [Each pair can be made 6 ways, 16 ways to make AK, total no hands is (52 x 51) / 2].

If we just call with this range, then this is 46/225 = 20% of our original raising range (3.5% of total hands); which is way below the 30% that the villan needs to make the 3 bet immediately profitable. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Moreover, this is not taking into acount any post flop advantage he has by taking the lead in the hand, and often having position. For example, we may call with TT, and check fold on a Q high flop to his c-bet with AK.

I've been thinking about how to make use of this in my game. 3 betting pre-flop seems such a powerfull tool.

Playing for 100bbs my range for calling 3 bets seems to be so narrow, pretty much TT, JJ/QQ, assuming it's not a donk min/small raise. I tend to 4 bet nearly always with KK, AA and AK a fair amount. Should I be just calling 3 bets with AA/KK more to merge my 3 bet calling range to punish villan for 3 betting me light? As I 4 bet with AK in alot of situations and ocassionally QQ, I would say my 4 betting range is actually wider than my 3 bet calling range.

Given the above should we be either be 4 betting more lightly or just calling 3 bets with our very big hands, AA/KK to merge our 3 betting range to prevent it from being so exploitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I made a mathematical mistake the number of hands is (52x51)/2 or 52C2, so 1326, not 2652 like I originally thought. This shows the effect is not nearly as effective as i first thought. I've edited the above paragraph to be correct but somehow couldnt edit the original post.

I think its still worth some discussion.

[AshleyC]

[ QUOTE ]
well the thing at microstakes is that nobody will actually try to exploit you. You have to think about this though when you move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not, but we can be the exploiters.

[Antinome]

fixing the math per newbie's excellent observation /images/graemlins/smile.gif brings us to 20% and adding 99 and AQ brings us to 30%.

Whatever shortfall there is might be made up in those 20-30% we do call and are way ahead and extract a 2/3 pot sized cbet from villian. He would have to be very disciplined to 3bet and not follow it up with a cbet when called.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well the thing at microstakes is that nobody will actually try to exploit you. You have to think about this though when you move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not, but we can be the exploiters.

[/ QUOTE ]not now since u made this post because the only people who dont call enough 3bets preflop are reading this forum right now. thanks for basically burning money in front of my face /images/graemlins/grin.gif

but yea u r right. there are too many peopple who dont feel comfortable playin in 3 bet pots thus just fold off to them all and baically losing money long term to any one who can realize this and exploit it