50NL, KKK on dangerous board

[kenadams]

I only have 34 hands on villain, but he was 70/0/0.27...
Yes my flop bet was weak. Should I ever consider checking the turn behind to get a free card and see if I happen to boat up on the river? Can I call his shove (considering his low AF) ?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $46.00
Hero (BB): $233.75
UTG: $50.00
MP: $50.00
CO: $71.75
BTN: $79.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
4 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, SB calls $2.00

Turn: ($8) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $42.00</font>, Hero ????

[Micro Donk]

3.50 on the flop

turn makes me vomit since its a jack most times with this opponent...i think i have to call...calling 36 into a 56 pot plus the possibilities that he may have gone completely nuts with a worse hand. i cant fault a fold either

[skibbel]

I don't think you can call. You need 39.1% Equity.
Even with AK/KQ/AA/QQ/TT it's hard to get it on this board

Hand 0: 36.773% 33.20% 03.58% 891 96.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 63.227% 59.65% 03.58% 1601 96.00 { AA, QQ-TT, AKs, AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }

[TheRenaissance]

Dont fold.
Bet more on flop.
Villain is an idiot.

[skibbel]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Give me a range, respecting his AF, which gives us 39.1% equity.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dont fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Give me a range, respecting his AF, which gives us 39.1% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Respecting" AF when you have less than 200 hands on someone is bad.
He is very likely an idiot, but we cant be much more specific than that.

[skibbel]

Just give me a reasonable range (without A2o lol).

[TheRenaissance]

Hold'em Simulation
2,948 trials (Exhaustive)
board: QsAdKhTs
Hand Pot equity
KsKd 41.42%
AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ,AJ,QJ,KJ,TJ 58.58%

[skibbel]

And 200 hands are enough to see, that he's a station, and he won't bluff here many times, cause stations don't bluff, they call.

Edit: Ok it's closer than i tought, you're right, it's call.

[ViciousPuma]

i like how KK is in villians range.

[skibbel]

Edit: Stove sucks....

[Micro Donk]

why is KK in the ranges...

but a 70/0/0 isnt check/raising 2 pair on a board like this

[skibbel]

tight range:
Hand 0: 34.146% 30.62% 03.53% 2223 256.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 65.854% 62.33% 03.53% 4525 256.00 { AA, QQ-TT, AKs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }
medium range:
Hand 0: 36.138% 32.58% 03.56% 2451 268.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 63.862% 60.30% 03.56% 4537 268.00 { AA, QQ-TT, AQs+, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

Hard to find a call vs this type of oppenent.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
i like how KK is in villians range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed but didnt bother changing it because...

board: QsAdKhTs
Hand Pot equity
KsKd 41.42%
AA,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ,AJ,QJ,KJ,TJ 58.58%

...the calculator is smarter than me, and polite too!
He just pretends I never put KK in there.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 0: 30.995% 27.52% 03.47% 1889 238.50 { KK }
Hand 1: 69.005% 65.53% 03.47% 4498 238.50 { AA, QQ-TT, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

[/ QUOTE ]

why no AK/AQ?

[skibbel]

Because he's a [censored] a station and will fear the J and call u down.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Because he's a [censored] a station and will think OMFG no my AK is suckouted but i call anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know so much about villain?
All we know is he seems bad.

To sum the situation up without numbers:

Pro call:
Villain seems like an idiot.
We have a big set.

Con call:
Board is scary.
We face a big bet.

There is no clear cut answer, as it is pretty damn close, but when in doubt I lean towards calling as we might learn something about villain that way.

[Spinners]

This is a tough spot, but I think with those stats you can find a call.

[sightless]

bet more on flop
check behind on turn, why bet?


[ QUOTE ]
AA,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ,AJ,QJ,KJ,TJ

[/ QUOTE ]

virtually everytime he makes this c/r he has a jack. He is never doing this with two pair