62s - odds to make pair + gutshot or better?

[Syntec87]

this is really dumb I should be able to find it somewhere, trying to see if I like a RR i called in a live game (it was smallish and we were 150BB deep), about 16-1 implied odds enough to play the hand? really felt the guy had a big hand (QQ+)...I think it was enough to call but dont remember the math...I am really confident I can outplay him postflop but of course I have to make sure odds allow me to in this situation..

what are my odds of making 2pr or trips or better?

what about draws better than a flush draw (pair + draws)?

other cool flop stats, say for 64s or 65s which are MUCH better I believe?

[DarkMagus]

A while ago I did some calculations for suited connectors. These would apply for 54s up to JTs.

62.704 % - Nothing
13.225 % - GutShot
07.714 % - Double GutShot or OESD
01.102 % - Straight
02.020 % - 2 Pairs
01.145 % - Trips, Full House, or Quads
07.684 % - Flush Draw (with nothing else)
01.928 % - Flush Draw + GutShot
01.148 % - Flush Draw + (Double GutShot or OESD)
00.184 % - Flush Draw + Straight
00.510 % - Flush
00.194 % - Flush + GutShot
00.117 % - Flush + (Double GutShot or OESD)
00.020 % - Straight Flush


Total Made Hands: 05.597 %
Total Good Draws: 18.474 %
Total Gutshots: 13.224 %
Total Flops Missed: 62.704 %



For each gap you add, it cuts the number of straights it can make. 65 can make straights with 234, 347, 478, or 789. 62 can only make a straight with exactly 345. So for 62s, you can probably use the same stats with the exception that anything involving a straight is roughly multiplied by 0.25.

With suited connectors you only flop a made hand less than 6% of the time. The rest of the time when you hit the flop, it'll be draws, and you might not be able to proceed after the flop if he bets too much. 16-1 implied odds is pretty marginal to call with suited connectors, and I think a hand like 62s would be a terrible preflop call if you have no plans to try to bluff at all.

[jay_shark]

Dark , I get a different number for gut-shots than you .

Here it is if you hold j-10s .

1)(10j) akx where x is not a q,k or ace
2) (10j) aqx where x is not an ace, k ,q , 9 or 8
3) (10j) 87x where x is not an 8,7 ,9 .
4) (10j) 97x where x is not a 9,7 ,8 , q or k
5) (10j) k9x where x is not a k,9,q or 8
6) (10j) q8x where x is not a q,8,k or 9 or ace .

We have to be careful about 1,5 and 3,6 as we don't want to overcount.

1) 4*4*38 -8
2) 4*4*30 -6
3) 4*4*38 -8
4) 4*4*30 -6
5)4*4*30 -6
6)4*4*30 -6

We have to subtract AK9 and q87 which is 4*4*4 +4*4*4 -2 common flushes .

Paired boards : 4c2*4*2*6 =288

Summing everything I get 600*2 + 474*4 - (4*4*4*2-2) + 288 = 3258

so 3258/50c3 = 16.62%

[DarkMagus]

I've got my gutshots split up into different categories. There's a category for "Flush draw + Gutshot" and a category for "Flush + Gutshot".

Also, my method is exact. I actually wrote a program to deal every possible flop, evaluate our hand, and sum the possibilities up. I didn't calculate it like you did. I'm not really sure how you did it either - why are you discounting paired boards?

[jay_shark]

My calculation is when the gutshot is the best available draw available .

I haven't discounted the paired boards. I've added 288 paired boards to my calculation .

Bruce has the same answer as mine which is always good to know that I didn't make any typos .

[DonkBluffer]

Would it be hard to write a program where you put in a range of hands, a flop, and then the program tells you what percentage of the time the range would completely miss the flop (no pair or draw at all) and give the percentages for all the other combinations (depending on how you do it it could be a lot, like TP + no draws, TP + FD, TP + GS, TP + OESD, etc. but you would need to think of a good way to do it).

A program like that can do this would be great when you have an idea of your opponents range PF and his call/raise ranges on the flop, and you want to know whether you can cbet profitably.

It would be awesome to know how often your opponent hits what on a particular flop..