OESD in 3bet pot

[ieee754]

Hello,

im really not sure what to think about this hand.
The table was really tight its not my normal play to raise 89s from utg+1.

Also I have been stealing pretty frequently.
Villain was 35/20/9 over about 55 hands.

Total spew?

If he has JJ-KK i think villain could lay it down here.
If i raise a normal amount he is commited so i decided to push.

Should I just have folded?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($25.05)
UTG ($25.30)
Hero ($31.30)
CO ($6.95)
Button ($29.60)
SB ($19.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $2.1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.15.

Flop: ($4.35) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $29.3 (All-In)</font>, SB calls $14.50 (All-In).

Turn: ($39.35) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($39.35) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $39.35

Thanks

[Spurious]

Fold preflop.
I dont know this is weird, because you gotta push or call here. Raising is not an option because you gotta call if he pushes :/. I dont know, i might just call here, dont get too fancy.
But i think your biggest problem was the call preflop.

[wingchunflush]

fold preflop, even with him raising 20% of his hands that range is crushing your hand. Thats what makes this bad, he didn't just call the raise he rr

[canavarr]

fold preflop: suited connector in a rr pot is no good.
flop: you don't have enough folding equity to push an oesd. I'd only push a combo draw here (gutshot+FD), or nut flush draw (if no ace on board and i think my ace is an out)... oesd not good enough for me...

[CyberianBull]

By stealing do you mean just stealing blinds or 3-betting quite a bit yourself? What's your table image? Has the villain been 3-betting a lot?

Villain seems very aggro and probably has a large 3-betting range -- any votes for a 4-bet?

[Student Caine]

Wow, this is a bold move. I mean if you are gonna' make this kind of move with an OESD, then this is the place to do it, right? You have fold equity against JJ-KK and a redraw to the nuts.

That being said, the question is do we really wanna' do this? I broke the answer into two parts:

PART I – SHOVE IT AND LOVE IT

I am not 100% sure of the calculations below as I am not a statistical wizard, but let's see if we can represent this mathematically:

Let’s start with the assumption that we are going to get called. If we assume that he has the extremely tight range of TT+ then we are ~7:3 dog to hit our straight by the river. So assuming that he calls, we are risking $17.50 to win $21.85 (his $14.50 plus the $7.35 in the pot). So the play itself has an EV of &lt;$5.70&gt; per hand.

Now let’s add in the bluff potential. If we bluff and are successful then we win $7.35 for each successful bluff attempt.

So if I understand this situation correctly, our bluff needs to be successful slightly less than 1:1 in order for this make up for our &lt;$5.70&gt; EV per hand with our straight draw.

So do we think that we will fold out this hand 50% of the time? Unfortunately I did all of this cool (and quite possibly wrong) math and I cannot answer this question haha. Obviously TT and AA are going nowhere. JJ-KK are more likely to drop. There are 12 combos of TT and AA to the 18 combos of JJ-KK. So a 2:3 ratio of “calling”:”folding” hands. Based upon this, I think we make this play.

I want to stress again I am not 100% sure about this math and I would definitely welcome any corrections from more experienced statisticians. Also, if anyone thinks that I am overestimating a 25NL villains ability to drop JJ-KK to a shove please say something.


PART II – I’M WEAK-TIGHT LIKE THAT GIRLY MAN STUDENT CAINE SO I JUST WANNA’ CALL

Now what what if we decide that we want to go ahead and just call to try and hit our straight? We have 6-8 outs to our straight (let’s hope he doesn’t have JJ). If we assume that JJ is less likely than TT, QQ+ (which it is) then we can give ourself the full 8 outs. So we are going to call $3 for the chance to win $7.35; so the pot is laying us odds of ~7:3. In reality, the pot needs to be laying our 8 outer ~5:1 for this to be a profitable call.

Based upon this, we will need to be able to get another $8 out of the villain by showdown if we hit on the turn. On the turn, the pot will be $10.35. If he has AA or TT getting another $8 will not be a problem. If he has JJ-KK then extracting the $8 becomes a little more problematic, but I still think we can get there by the river as we can throw in smallish bets on the turn and river to elicit calls from villain ($3 turn bet and $5 river bet?).


CONCLUSION

Given the two options, I really think that the two plays are about equal in profitability, but they both look like that profitability is slim. The problem is if we have a stubborn villain who is not gonna’ drop JJ-KK for anything, then we will never get that fold equity we so badly need to make Part I make sense.

[Kasane]

I don't see anything wrong with a flat call. If you want to bluff at it and get him to fold JJ-KK, you can do that on the turn cheaper if/when he checks. Overall, I think your equity is higher for this move.

[Hail Eris]

Just call. Your implied odds are great here, and you have more FE against his pairs by calling the flop and betting the turn if he checks. The stacks are a bit awkward and shoving looks kind of FOS here.

[Mr_Pathetic]

Not sure I like this raise. I mean fold equity is good against JJ-KK and he will probably cbet this with those hands but once you shove you kind of make the hand much easier for him to play correctly then difficult.