NL50 - Overpair QQ vs AI on flop

[castigar]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $57.40
BB: $49.50
UTG: $19.80
Hero (MP): $123.65
CO: $56.55
BTN: $60.05

Reads: <font color="blue">Vilain is 22/11/5 on 60 hands. I THINK I made the good call because of the possible FD but some guy with 70vip told me it wasn't. So here I am, asking for your thoughts. Thanks</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.00

Flop: ($8.25) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $57.55</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $51.05

Turn: ($123.35) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($123.35) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $123.35 ($3 Rake)

[DaycareInferno]

seems ok to me versus a button caller thats agressive postflop on this board. i wouldn't expect to be cleaning up or anything, but i think its a +, especially considering that even agressive villains are going to sandbag a big hand in position sometimes, flush draw or not.

[Eric Draven]

I wouldn't expect to be way ahead, but I would call. The board is very draw-y, but not many hands are actually there yet. With a 5 AF, I would expect him to have a big draw a lot of the time.

[nutstoyou]

I think this could easily a combo draw. I'd probably call, but I wouldn't be surprised if I lost the hand.

[Rounder101]

Good call, a set makes not much sense here...

[Mr_Pathetic]

Ok so what is villains shoving range on this board. 44,55,JJ,AsJs,6s7s, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs. Thats 9 ways for a set and 5 ways for a combo draw. If this is all he shoves with then probably not a good call.

Hand 0: 23.203% 23.20% 00.00% 3216 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 76.797% 76.80% 00.00% 10644 0.00 { JJ, 55-44, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 7s6s }

If he shoves with TPTK thats 12 ways you way ahead of. Add just JTo and thats 12 more. Now lets add AJo and JTo to his previous range and see what happens.

Hand 0: 53.955% 53.96% 00.00% 17093 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 46.045% 46.04% 00.00% 14587 0.00 { JJ, 55-44, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 7s6s, AJo, JTo }

Still a highly marginal spot.

[cb4mvp]

I would probably call, but like somebody else said, I wouldn't be surprised if I lost.

[orig!naL]

hmmm.. I guess I'm the only one that would fold this.

I really think some of these ranges are too optimistic.

I would put villains range somewhere along the lines of:

Board: 4s Jd 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.844% 44.84% 00.00% 10655 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 55.156% 55.16% 00.00% 13105 0.00 { JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 4c4d, 4c4h, 4d4h, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 7h6h, 7s6s, AcJh, AcJs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJc, AhJs, AsJc, AsJh }

[maciczka]

hard decision, I would call but be ready to reload