NL25: AA in position against a push on the flop

[bknollenberg]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $25.00
BB: $45.25
Hero (UTG): $71.20
MP: $22.40
CO: $12.15
BTN: $22.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.80</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.20</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $44.40</font>, Hero???

the guy was kind of a nit. plays lots of hands pf, but is usually very solid when pushes.

thoughts? easy fold?

[Ramana]

I fold if he's a nit, 200BB is too deep to call.

[jackrich00]

I don't think its as easy just to say he is a nit. I mean look at that board what could he have here to cold call on the BB? J10, QJ maybe Q10 or KQ could even be 108s. I dont think he is gonna push with trips here its not really a draw heavy board. I think i would maybe call here, he is using the deep stacked situation to his advantage and trying to push you off your hand by making you call for over half you chips. Also he must know by leading out you are def going to be raising him on a nice flop texture like that so a push with a draw has good fold equity in his eyes. I think call, am i wrong?

[PJo336]

I think sets are heavy in this range, as well as if hes loose preflop he could have Q9 just as likely as Q10. 77 would prob be my biggest worry, it depends heavily on image as well. If he knows you will call with an overpair for 200bb he may push trips

[DerrtySlime]

really easy fold.

[bknollenberg]

I thought about the sets, but decided if anything he had super garbage like Q7. Q7 is actually the most probable I think, in which case I has many backdoor outs to the nuts. [censored] it, I am going all in.

[PJo336]

Q7 does not seem like its in his range

[wooziephantom]

Against a random donk I would have persuaded myself to call, but if he's somewhat decent ur beat here most of the time.. 200 bb deep this is a fold imo, as u said his range is wide and he can have hit this flop in several ways.. never ever would he push top pair in this spot and a freak flopped two pair seems like the most likely holding here.. Not sure he'd play a set like this. Fold all day long, the board is to dry here..

[canavarr]

on this board sets would check/raise here or smallish bet/raise (not necessarily AI). this bet-pot/raise AI line is weird and doesn't smell like a set. I need vpip/pfr to weigh in two pair possibilities, but I think you are ahead against loose donks behind against tight nits...

[skates]

Whoaaaaah why so many folds? Come on. BB calls the 3.5BB bet PF, flop comes Q79 rainbow and nitty villain bets the pot. Most people with sets here check and call the CBet to make it look like a float since most people CBet that flop. I do not like the raise on the flop at all, but as played, his shove SCREAMS JT. Note that he can't call the bet for odds, and he thinks he can shove since hero's deep and he has FE. I think we see JT and AQ more often than anything else since hero raised UTG. Q9 is probably out of the range, so I see this as JT/QK/AQ mostly, mayyyybe QJ or Q9 sometimes, and RARELY 77/99/QQ.

To summarize, Hero raised UTG. BB rarely rarely 3Bets the Q79 rainbow flop with a set.

[RichAM]

Waaaaaaaaaaaay to many scared people around these forums right now. I post hands that I win just to get peoples perspective of the hand. Just b/c someone posts a hand doesn't mean it was beaten. That's what's wrong with this forum right now. You come into someones thread already persuaded that he has lost the hand. This is why we don't post results. If your going to help on a hand, dont come into someones thread already scared that he lost it and then find a place for him to fold.

Now, onto the hand. Like a couple people have said, I don't see a set playing like this. If you got unlucky with him hitting 2 pair then so be it. I dont see a fold here. Easy call IMO.

[skates]

[ QUOTE ]
Waaaaaaaaaaaay to many scared people around these forums right now. I post hands that I win just to get peoples perspective of the hand. Just b/c someone posts a hand doesn't mean it was beaten. That's what's wrong with this forum right now. You come into someones thread already persuaded that he has lost the hand. This is why we don't post results. If your going to help on a hand, dont come into someones thread already scared that he lost it and then find a place for him to fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, and I practically just started posting here.

[Kasane]

This is a really easy fold. When a nit tells you he has you, believe him.

Sure, sometimes... sometimes he's saying he has AQ and he's just saying "eff it, I'm all in" because he's a nit that sucks. And sometimes it's JT or T8... but it just isn't often enough one of those hands. We're better than a flip, sure, in those cases, but we're not even dominating. Then there's the case when he has a set... then we're dominated.

The board is dry as hell, there's not enough draws to put in his range to make this a call. To believe a nit bet/pushes air or a draw 200BB deep is... is spew.

Now, I'm tempted to believe he's not quite a nit from OP's description "calls a lot".. maybe more laggy that's been missing flops.

I'm going to go stove this... back in a couple if I come up with anything interesting.

[Bantam222]

im not a fan of going all in w/ one pair for 200BB..

[Kasane]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10,890 games 0.050 secs 217,800 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.914% 25.91% 00.00% 2822 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 74.086% 74.09% 00.00% 8068 0.00 { QcQd, QcQh, 99, 77, AhQh, AsQs, JhTh, JsTs }

Okay, now this range for villain has a few caveats. QQ is discounted to two combos because it's pretty unlikely. One might be better (more equity for us). JT I've given two combos to discount for how unlikely I think that is. I've not added KK in. Debatable...

If anyone thinks that the times he pushes with air might get us up another 20%... I'd like to borrow your rose colored glasses for the next time I get a letter from the IRS.

And as to the unlikely chance we're up against 2 pair... Well, we're behind 2pair enough to make calling foolish, so we can see that that wouldn't help our equity.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about the sets, but decided if anything he had super garbage like Q7. Q7 is actually the most probable I think, in which case I has many backdoor outs to the nuts. [censored] it, I am going all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, you do know how incredibly bad this is, right?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,930 games 0.005 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.455% 25.45% 00.00% 1764 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 74.545% 74.55% 00.00% 5166 0.00 { Q7o }

[Brian O'Nolan]

Pretty easy fold. If the flop was QJ7 FD or something you could consider calling, but there aren't even that many big draws out there here. Like 1/15 times he has AQ or KK but you're almost always drawing pretty slim here. B/3BAI has you smoked on this flop.

[Lego05]

Ummmm....the flop looks like a very standard fold to me.

BTW i woulda just called his pot size bet on flop.

[orange]

not a tremendous fan of the flop raise unless you intend on getting it in this deep.