AK vs donk, possible runnerrunnerflush

[skibbel]

56/30/2/25 but only 20 hands, seems loose.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($29.90)
SB ($49.95)
BB ($85.70)
Hero ($57)
MP ($95.95)
CO ($135.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, MP calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.5</font>, MP calls $7.50.

River: ($25.75) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $83.45</font>, Hero calls $30 (All-In).

Final Pot: $114.75

[Berky]

what can you beat?

[StubbornRussian]

You are calling for a split here but you already have half your stack in so call in this case since your opponent has loose bad stats. I have seen these stats shove here with 9x, air, all kinds of stuff. Against a good solid player you can let this go.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

Very tough spot. A donkish player might do this with Kx, two pair, or a set. He could also have a flush of course. You have already put in half your stack. I think I would call and hope for the best. If he shows down a flush, he just got very lucky to hit a runner runner like that.

Betting more on the flop and turn would make this decision easier, BTW

[gcaash]

you only beat a bluff here

[humP]

lolz if he's raising two pair/set like ever in this river this is turbocall... I think you got to call vs that kind of opponent, even though it's a small sample but it gives some help. Can't be arsed to count the times you need to be good for a split for this call to be profitable but I would except it to be enough.

[nexah3]

With that wide of a range I doubt I'd put him on the flush. Probably holding two pair or a King.

[Sense1ess]

As was mentioned before, against a tight solid player you could find a fold here; but against this villain you call.

[RedSoxFan]

***First attempt at analyzing a hand so I'll give my two cents and appreciate any reciprocal feedback.

56/30/2/25 (V$IP/PFR%/AF/???- what's the 25?)

Lets start with his range- with a V$IP at 56, he range can be quite wide- any pp, Ax, two face cards, un/suited connectors. He wasn't first to raise so that may limit him off some of the more premium hands.

FLOP- Against someone this loose, I'd bet the pot. If he has A-rag, he'd probably hang around and he may even have a gutshot draw(assuming he called raise w/ face cards). I'd push with any reraise.

TURN- Again, I'm betting the pot, especially with flush draw now there. Smooth call could signal strength. Usually 2 pot sized bets are enough to get out most calling stations unless connected with flop. As far as flush- I see a lot of LAGs reraise and/or over bet when their flush draw comes up on the turn.

River- Good bet on potential flush board. If you didn't have the straight, I'd probably check it down. His all in likely means he has crap and is representing the flush or he has the King. The only flush hand I would worry about is Ax diamonds. I can see LAGs calling with this PF- but he'd probably reraise turn. I'd put him on A-rag (maybe Kx) and he's trying to scare you away.

I think most of the time against this type of player, your hand is good- but occasionally, they hit and take back some of the chips they regularly send your way.

[RedSoxFan]

[ QUOTE ]
you only beat a bluff here

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has the straight so beats everything except the runner runner flush.

Read other replies- agree that call is correct move against this donkey and fold is correct against rocks (love looking at poker tracker when have a tough call and seeing that villain wins %80+ at SD)

[orig!naL]

make it $4 on the flop and $8.5 on that turn. I really think he could have 2-pair here, more-so than a set. 88 is the only set I could see villain playing like this. I would expect he 3-bets AA and QQ, although some donks love calling with AA.

Either way, I really think this is a call. I could lay down 2-pair or a set here no problem, but I think I'm calling this with half my stack in.

[skibbel]

i wouldn't cbet 4$, i would c-bet 3$, so i bet 3$ when i hit, too.

[gcaash]

[ QUOTE ]
you only beat a bluff here

[/ QUOTE ]
damm looks like i cant read a single HH today