NL25 AKs pf spot

[checktheriver]

Sat down at the table a couple orbits ago, both blinds seem standard TAGs from what I've seen.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($29.85)
BB ($33.25)
UTG ($24.30)
MP ($25)
CO ($25.45)
Hero ($25.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $4</font>, Hero ?

[Jago]

looks like a squeeze, shove

[Yaboy]

not sure what BB has, maybe TT+, or AQs+. You could re-pop to about $8 to isolate the BB. However, I would just call the raise. You have excellent position to see a flop.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

If this is the first time you have seen him re-raise preflop I would give him some credit and just call here. That is probably the case since you just sat down. But if this is a move he makes often, this is a definite 4-bet.

The reason why I think this is read dependent is because he might be the type of player who only 3-bets with AA or KK. And it sucks to 4-bet with AK only to be faced with a shove from your opponent.

[checktheriver]

Yeah I know it's really read dependant, just wanted to know what would be standard against unknowns at this level. I shoved btw.

[AZplaya]

calling here really sux imo. For those that advocate calling, what do you do when the flop is 1034r and villian makes a 3/4 pot cbet? Calling off 16 BB's pre and then folding alot of flops is just spew. AKs is a hand that wants to see all five cards so I would def 4 bet AI here.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

[ QUOTE ]
calling here really sux imo. For those that advocate calling, what do you do when the flop is 1034r and villian makes a 3/4 pot cbet? Calling off 16 BB's pre and then folding alot of flops is just spew. AKs is a hand that wants to see all five cards so I would def 4 bet AI here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. AK is a hand that wants to see a flop. If the flop comes T34, you are well behind any pocket pair (which is what he likely has) and only ahead of AQ, AJ, or some other random holding that hasn't paired (which I wouldn't put him on this early).

[youngKR]

[ QUOTE ]
calling here really sux imo. For those that advocate calling, what do you do when the flop is 1034r and villian makes a 3/4 pot cbet? Calling off 16 BB's pre and then folding alot of flops is just spew. AKs is a hand that wants to see all five cards so I would def 4 bet AI here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably do this if he seemed like an avg player who was capable of 3betting light, however with no reads, I prob just call and see a flop. With no reads if the flop bricks then I probably dump the hand and move on. It may be a slight spew but its better than moving all in to have him turn over AA or KK which I think may happen often when you don't have reads.

On the other hand, he may think you are overplaying the button and be 3betting you with 99-QQ or AJ+. But this early in the session I would prob just call.

[Genesis]

AK misses the flop 2/3 of the time. Just calling a preflop 3bet and folding unimproved will be folding a winning hand too often especially in a blind battle IMO.

For this hand, obviously this is opponent specific.
Below I did a bit of math based on hypothetical opponent's 3bet raising range and 4bet all-in calling range.

3bet range 99+, AQ+ = 30 + 12 + 9 = 51 combos
4bet call QQ+, AK = 12 + 9 = 21 combos

So then our AKs:
59% win $6
17.6% vs AK win $0
11.8% vs QQ (est 48% win) -$.04
6.0% vs KK (est 30% win) -$9.36
6.0% vs AA (est 12% win) -$18.68

.59*6 + .176*0 + .118*-.04 + .06-9.36 + .06*-18.68 = +1.86

So if these ranges were correct, then it is quite +EV to 4bet all-in here.

More likely, I think the 3bet range is wider and the all-in calling range about the same so its even more +EV for us.

*Edit: corrected the math because our AK reduces opponents AQ, AK, KK, AA combos.

[nexah3]

nice post genesis

[mookboi]

Shove, don't call.

[checktheriver]

Genesis, your post shows that given the ranges you assigned pushing is better than folding, but it doesn't prove that it's better than calling which was the initial question.

[Genesis]

I'll try to estimate the EV of calling preflop.

Chance you miss flop 2/3. You fold.
Lose your $3 preflop call.

Chance you hit 1/3. You try to get all-in each time.
This is where I need Stove but I'm at work. Anyway, estimate you win 75% of the time you catch. When you win you collect $6 (preflop) + $8 (cont. bet) + $6 more on average - your opponent will be able to get away sometimes. The other 25% you're getting stacked.

.67 * -$3 = -$2.01
.33*.75 * $20 = $4.95
.33*.25 * -$24.90 = -$2.05
So its +$.89.

This appears less profitable than the preflop push calculation, but it is harder to estimate because it hinges a lot on postflop skills and I'm not sure about the % of time you win when you catch with AK since I don't have Stove. Could be higher or lower, and I'm kind of rushing this post.

[checktheriver]

Yeah I think the math is quite complex here. Also I'm probably pushing any flop with two diamonds.

[whyherro]

Call unless it seems like he might be squeezing, 3-betting light. Easiest way to do this is if you have PT and he looks like a good player, then there's definitely a much higher chance he is squeezing. Shoving is definitely not -EV