$50nl - ATo, marginal play

[Jago]

This is probably only marginally +ev (if at all) so i wanted to get your opinions. I'm typing this HH out manually so bare with me.

6max
- Hero sitting in seat 4 with $73 .33
- UTG sitting in seat 6 with $46 .82

UTG (villain) limps, MP limps, folded to me in SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif and I pump it up to $3.25 total, both call.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I bet $8.75, UTG shoves for $43.57 total, MP folds, Hero calls?

Now, the game wasn't playing LAG enough for UTG to have AA/KK here and not to mention he didnt LRR, and QQ probably raises the first time round here. I did not put him on AQ at all due to the pf limp. I put his range on TT (unlikely), 44, KJ, J9, QT, KcXc where X = 7-10, Jc8c, JcTc and other random club draws with inside straight draws or even a naked FD.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.047 secs 968,936 games/sec

Board: 4c Qc Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.138% 47.11% 00.03% 21453 13.50 { AcTh }
Hand 1: 52.862% 52.83% 00.03% 24060 13.50 { TT, 44, KJs, KcTc, Kc9c, QTs, JcTc, J9s, Jc8c, KJo, QTo, J9o }

I'm slightly behind his range here but potodds = call?
Even if I put AQ/KQ into his range im at 38.3% so it's even more marginal but still +EV?

[TheDoubleA]

I might call if the 10 on the flop was a club, otherwise I think you can find TONS of better spots to get your money in.

[Waingro]

It all depends on what you think he does this with (obv). You seem to put him on draws and sets and since there are so many more combos of draws than sets, you are priced in to call. But that is to put villain on a range that makes sence. However, many many villains play their hands completely backwards. They shove in this spot with tpgk and just calls with sets and draws. Wacky I know, but some people are bad at poker. So unless I have a solid read villain is either very good or very bad I insta-fold this. And it seems unlikely he is really good.

[Jago]

What kind of range should I put him on? more Qx hands?

[dnord]

Can we limp this pre-flop and check-fold flop? I'm trying to keep my nittiness in check but this seems like exactly the trouble you get into.

Why doesn't his range have all kinds of KQ / QJ / Qx possibilities?

[CmnDwnWrkn]

In general at these stakes, when your opponent tells you he has something big, you should believe him. On rare occassions, you are being bluffed off of the best hand here, but the vast majority of the time he has you beat. Never ever ever would I consider calling here unless I have a good read that this particular opponent bluff shoves often or shoves with very weak hands often.

Your poker stove analysis assumes that your opponent is a halfway decent, rational player, but I wouldn't rule out pocket aces, kings, queens, jacks, or AQ here. People play big hands in all types of weird ways at these stakes. Also, I wouldn't rule out a shove from TPWK or something like that. Two pair is also very likely.

I would consider a call with TPTK depending on the opponent, but I don't think you should ever call with with middle pair.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of range should I put him on? more Qx hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
Bingo! When someone does this I sort of automatically put them on tpgk as a big part of their range and take it from there and then I adjust a little for how drawy the flop is and how loose or aggressive or good he is. I think I have rarely seen a player with your ranges on the flop. Just because you and I won´t show up with a Q here doesn´t mean that the majority of the opposition won´t.