AA facing CRAI on a drawy flop

[KCrow]

Villain is 22/16/4 over 250 hands. No history with him or any reads.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $102.05
Hero (BB): $50.90
UTG: $54.45
MP: $51.00
CO: $51.30
BTN: $18.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.75</font>, CO folds, SB calls $5.25

Flop: ($16) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $94.30</font>, Hero?

I always feel like a fish stacking off with overpairs. I've put him on this hand range, not to mention complete bluffs. Any thoughs?

Board: Td 7s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.214% 54.00% 01.22% 13899 313.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 44.786% 43.57% 01.22% 11215 313.00 { KK-QQ, TT, 88-77, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs }

[DaycareInferno]

i think your raise should be larger preflop. i usually make mine 110% pot. you're getting better than 2:1 on the ai call, so i don't think you can fold aces here.

[oxiej]

i think your range for him here is a little wide, would villain really play A10s or KQs like this?

anywayz about the hand, this really stinks like a flopped monster, villain wants you to think he is on a bluf and makes this huge overbet. villain either has a set or KK/QQ here i think.

i fold here.

[Jay_Whufc]

You have to call in a 3bet pot getting those odds but I wouldnt be too happy about it. Hopefully he just has KK/QQ and didnt fancy a 4bet pre flop. Why havent you included JJ in his range? I definately think JJ is a heavy part of his range.... Also 99 can be thrown in there if you have 77-88 in there

[scallop]

Villians raise is a massive overbet.

Would he not 4-bet KK,QQ,AKs preflop ?


I think this is a little closer to home:

Board: Td 7s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.599% 35.37% 01.23% 15055 525.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 63.401% 62.17% 01.23% 26465 525.00 { JJ-77, AsTs, KsQs, JsTs, Ts9s, T8s, 9s8s, 87s, T8o, 87o }

I would fold this without reads.

[meccaNES]

I think that's a generous range...

KQs, ATs

KK would MOST likely RR Pf.

I'd probably put this guy on a set. 4 is a prety high AF but i still think this is most likely a set/ a hand that has a ton of outs against you.

[g33z3r]

Villian might hold 99 here too.

I think you are up against a set about 40% to 50% of the time.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's a generous range...

KQs, ATs

KK would MOST likely RR Pf.




I'd probably put this guy on a set. 4 is a prety high AF but i still think this is most likely a set/ a hand that has a ton of outs against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif would deffo play this hand this way, and K/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif represents just a flush draw.

[mvdgaag]

How about 4s5s, 5s6s, 9sTs TsJs?

It's quite an overbet. I think he's on a draw or an overpair like QQ/JJ afraid of an A or K on the turn... A set or two pair will probably try to get more value by betting less.

I don't mind flipping against a combodraw and you are way ahead of some of his range and way behind on a less likely part of his range. Call.

[microDonk]

I think everyone is glancing at this too quickly and assuming it is a huge overbet. Looking at pot size and effective stacks:

Hero started with $50.90-$7.75-$12.00=$31.15

Pot before shove $16.00+$12.00=$28.00

That makes the shove a little bigger than a PSB, but definitely not a huge overbet.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone is glancing at this too quickly and assuming it is a huge overbet. Looking at pot size and effective stacks:

Hero started with $50.90-$7.75-$12.00=$31.15

Pot before shove $16.00+$12.00=$28.00

That makes the shove a little bigger than a PSB, but definitely not a huge overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our equity sucks vs his range, and he's overbet the pot (regardless of by how much) - fold?

[Waingro]

When I put in 15% of my stack pf with AA I am not folding ever. If villain flopped a set good for him, he didn´t have odds and if we think that villain could call pf with two unpaired cards this is an easy call.

[microDonk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone is glancing at this too quickly and assuming it is a huge overbet. Looking at pot size and effective stacks:

Hero started with $50.90-$7.75-$12.00=$31.15

Pot before shove $16.00+$12.00=$28.00

That makes the shove a little bigger than a PSB, but definitely not a huge overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Our equity sucks vs his range, and he's overbet the pot (regardless of by how much) - fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was merely commenting on the fact that a number of people (including you) were saying that it was a massive overbet. I didn't want that thinking to skew people's view of the hand. If villian were using a bet pot button he would be putting hero all-in, so I think considering it an overbet is a mistake.

Regarding the actual fold/call decision, in your original reply you have the OP as a 1.73-1 underdog vs. villians range, and the pot is offering 1.9-1. Your range for villian looked pretty good to me, and if you add those two together I would say that makes it a call.

[starkwired]

This screams flush draw to me, so I probably call it. I know that's just going with my gut, but his line doesn't make sense for most other hands (maybe a straight draw too?). Why would he put so much in with a set? Would make more sense to just lead out at that flop. Also, regarding pf bet size, I think it's fine.

[Jay_Whufc]

[ QUOTE ]
Villians raise is a massive overbet.

Would he not 4-bet KK,QQ,AKs preflop ?


I think this is a little closer to home:

Board: Td 7s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.599% 35.37% 01.23% 15055 525.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 63.401% 62.17% 01.23% 26465 525.00 { JJ-77, AsTs, KsQs, JsTs, Ts9s, T8s, 9s8s, 87s, T8o, 87o }

I would fold this without reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is awful. KK/QQ is easily in his range, ppl call 3bets with these hands so often at these stakes. As for 87o, 108o, well.............

[monkeymaps]

after 3 betting pre and cbetting flop I cant see how you can fold this.

[Gelford]

Looks good to me, nice hand ... and oh well, just variance /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[orig!naL]

I think this is JJ-QQ or a flush draw more than it is a set. I would call.

[KCrow]

Cheers for the feedback.........I thought it was pretty close. Anyway I called and lost to a set of tens.