NL 50 Good spot to dubble barrel?

[xeanatic]

Villian is unknown

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $30.30
BB: $54.60
UTG: $50.85
MP: $23.65
Hero (CO): $58.65
BTN: $94.20

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, BTN calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.75) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.50

[checktheriver]

Without reads I probably check and fold to a large bet here. The thing is the 7 is really a blank for Villain and the only way double barrelling will be profitable here is if he floats a lot, which you don't know yet.

[Peter Harris]

you picked up a sweeeeet card on the turn to semibluff. c/f would be weaksauce and c/c gives all the momentum to villain. nh.

[DopamineRelease]

I agree with Peter, we don't want to give villian control of this hand. I like xeanatic's line here

[XHitman014]

I like it...especially if the villian is passive. Should be a clear b/f. If he flat calls, I'm also planning on betting any non-diamond/non-queen river regardless of whether I hit my OESD.

[11t]

Yeah I like the double barrel here

I might bet like 5-6 though instead of 7 but I don't think it is that huge of a deal

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I like the double barrel here

I might bet like 5-6 though instead of 7 but I don't think it is that huge of a deal

[/ QUOTE ]
no way - you gotta bet strong here if you're going to continue this line

[spatne]

Why does a Q or non-Q affect your decision to bet the river? If he calls bets on two streets holding a Q, he's calling a third whether he makes trips or not.

The way I see it, if you think that draws make up the bulk of the range with which he'll call both of these flop and turn bets, then any non-diamond Q is, in effect, just another blank that doesn't complete a draw. If anything, him holding a Q is even less probable than before. If he does make trips with a rivered Q, then he raises and you fold, losing the same amount you would had a flat called a non-Q river with one pair.

Trying to learn, here. What am I missing?

[XHitman014]

I put his range's two most likely holdings as a TPGK type hand or a FD. It will be difficult for him to call another big bet with a weak queen (or even TPTK), a FD that misses the river probably still beats our hand so the only way to win is by betting.

I think the larger part of the range consists of FDs, the smaller part of his range consists of QJ-type hands. Will he call a large (~$25-30 push)with just a queen?

Honestly, if the answer is yes, then you shouldn't double barrel the guy..ever. I probably wouldn't do this against a complete unknown but once I make that second bet and get called, I want to have a plan for the river.

[bluffbetter]

I think double-barreling here is good, especially if villain would reraise preflop with QQ+ and AK/AQ. Villain could also have called flop with underpairs that haven't made a set and all these should fold to the 2nd barrel.

I think you could make the flop bet bigger, because otherwise out of position, it is more likely villain will call the smaller bet and then you get into a more risky situation if you try to bluff the turn.

[traz]

looks fine

[Ramana]

What do we do if we miss our draw? c/f? Or do we fire again?

[bluffbetter]

You could make a small bet vs a non-diamond river to try to make ace or king high (missed draw)fold.

[sightless]

I dont like it

Flush draw aint folding, queen aint folding

[xeanatic]

Ok so Villian called and this was the river, good place to 3rd barrel or just give up? Discuss please interested in to hear you thoughts about the river.

Daci: calls $7.50
*** RIVER *** [2s 5d Qd 7c] [5s]
xeanatic: bets $15

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like it

Flush draw aint folding, queen aint folding

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this hand is vv straightforward unless you have a read that villain has less of a hand than above like a lot.

I like it, but I would bet close to pot size on turn to make flush draws fold.

Have you considered double bubbling him, instead of dubble barreling.

[Ramana]

I've just seen Gelford's video and he advocates betting 1/2 pot with good draws on the turn. The reason is that it discourages floaters from bluffing and makes a lot of bad hands fold, we don't mind getting minraised that much, we can give up more easily if we miss and remain the aggressor in case we should hit.

What do you think about it?

btw: That river bet is really spewy imo.

[wingchunflush]

I am folding pf here 6-8 is a little weaker than i like

[DemonOfTheFall]

So you picked up outs, but you have to discount a couple of them, at least in an implied odds sense since unknown villains almost never pay off flush hitting rivers unless they have 2p+. You have 10bb invested OOP against an unknown and you want to start double barreling? Double barreling at micro stakes imo is very, very, image dependent and you have none here in villain's eyes. Poker is a game of incomplete information and here you are, wading head first into uncharted territory. Why make the game so difficult for yourself?

I don't see how anyone can give a quantitative answer here on villain's range and start surmising that he has a Q or a FD well enough for us to get into even thinking about 3rd barrelling. Surely being able to bet these spots with AQ/AA/KK with no history is why micro stakes are so profitable. Why are we bluffing?

I think it's burning money but I'm nittier than most. I'll admit that the majority of regulars at NL50 are nitty enough to fold hands like QJ/KQ to a river 3rd barrel but are you willing to risk 30BB to find out?

Sorry if I didn't offer any actual hand analysis but I feel the majority of my leaks stem from putting myself in situations where no play is really +EV or is so marginally +EV and high variance it's not worth it. I strongly think this is one of them. Would love to hear some of the more experienced posters' thoughts.