Calculating Odds

[HoldEmNewby]

I need a lil help on this one. Its simple enough to calculate pot odds. What I need clarification on is how to calculate the pot odds I need.

Say I'm on the turn:
I have an OESD+flush draw and i'm likely against an overpair higher than the two cards I'm holding.

15 outs, 46 cards = 15/46=32.60%
What are the pot odds I need to draw to the river, and whats the formula?

[ahanley]

You are about a 2:1 dog, you need the pot to be laying you better odds than 2:1 ( the odds against you making your hand) read the theory of poker.

[Mugatu669]

you have a 1/3 chance of completing your draw
this = 2:1
so...as long as he isn't overbettnig the pot you are drawing profitably, + implied odds

[HoldEmNewby]

how do you calculate that i'm a 2 to 1 dog?

[Mugatu669]

there is a 1/3 chance you will hit and a 2/3 chance that you won't hit.
1:2

[traz]

1/4 = 3:1
1/3 = 2:1

etc

[HoldEmNewby]

So with 15 outs and 46 cards left I need to be getting 1:2.06 odds to make my river call? Formula as follows (46-15)/15=2.06

Is that about right?

[Edukashun]

It's not exact but whilst playing I use the following.

With two cards to come you multiply your outs by 4
With only one card you multiply your outs by 2

In your example 15x4 = 60% (which is slightly wrong), if you get to see both cards.
I think the correct % is more like 55 but I've been working all night and I'm shattered so I don't wanna work it out.

[Gospy]

All it is is the ratio of your chance to hit versus the villains. So, if you have 1/3 chance to hit and he has a 2/3 chance to hit (by which I mean just avoid you hitting), then he's twice as likely to hit, so 2:1.

[Gospy]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not exact but whilst playing I use the following.

With two cards to come you multiply your outs by 4
With only one card you multiply your outs by 2

In your example 15x4 = 60% (which is slightly wrong), if you get to see both cards.
I think the correct % is more like 55 but I've been working all night and I'm shattered so I don't wanna work it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This works pretty well until you get into the 15+ out range (At which point it isn't quite as accurate), but if you have that many outs you are usually not getting away from the hand anyway.

[ajrees]

Harrington explained odds like this:

No. of cards left: 46
No. of outs: 15

Pot Odds = (46-15) / 15
= 31 / 15
= ~2:1

You need to be getting better than 2:1 on your money to make the call +EV.

However, these are the explicit odds and don't take into account the implied odds (more money that you can extract on teh river if you actually make your hand). For this reason, it can be correct to call with slightly less than the "correct" odds.

[Edukashun]

Yeah with 15 outs just embrace the variance as far as I'm concerned, they won't always have sets so just get it in.

[HoldEmNewby]

[ QUOTE ]
Harrington explained odds like this:

No. of cards left: 46
No. of outs: 15

Pot Odds = (46-15) / 15
= 31 / 15
= ~2:1

[/ QUOTE ]

NH

[HoldEmNewby]

On an aside, if i'm getting immediate odds to draw: should I always be drawing (ie. drawing to a low flush on a paired board, drawing to a straight on a 3 to a flush turn)?

[Edukashun]

[ QUOTE ]
On an aside, if i'm getting immediate odds to draw: should I always be drawing (ie. drawing to a low flush on a paired board, drawing to a straight on a 3 to a flush turn)?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is something I'm not to sure about.
IMO paired boards don't always mean FH (obv) but I'm not trying to get my stack in any more.
I think it depends on your opponent, if they're fishy than yeah I would but if they're solid players I might fold. It depends I suspose.