NL25 QQ fold overpair on flop ?

[checktheriver]

Villain is 24/5/2.5. I assumed his range for his UTG raise + calling the 3bet was very tight. After the c/r I thought his range was something like {55,88,TT+,AcKc} which has me crushed badly. Is a fold here way too nitty ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($19.45)
Hero ($25.80)
CO ($47.25)
Button ($8.65)
SB ($21.90)
BB ($27.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($6.35) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16.45</font>, Hero ?

[Zues]

He only raises with 5% of his hands PF. I think you are crushed here, by AA, KK, 88, TT, when he plays it like this.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
He only raises with 5% of his hands PF. I think you are crushed here, by AA, KK, 88, TT, when he plays it like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. The only hand that plays like this that I can think of is JJ or MAYBE 99 but I seriously doubt 99 because he probably doesn't raise it pf judging by stats. I suppose he could also be playing AcKc this way too but overall, against his range you're most likely beat.

EDIT: I suppose he could have QQ as well but that's quite unlikely since you already have them yourself.

[Zues]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He only raises with 5% of his hands PF. I think you are crushed here, by AA, KK, 88, TT, when he plays it like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. The only hand that plays like this that I can think of is JJ or MAYBE 99 but I seriously doubt 99 because he probably doesn't raise it pf judging by stats. I suppose he could also be playing AcKc this way too but overall, against his range you're most likely beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, even against AcKc which is the best of cases, we are still a coinflop.

[checktheriver]

Yes I agree, even if I include JJ and AcKc in his range I'm 30% against it and I don't have the odds to call. i folded this pretty quickly. But now the question is would you still bet this flop knowing that his range is very tight and he's probably folding pretty much everything that I beat, and that I'll have to fold to a push?

[Zues]

I like betting this flop. It allows us to see where we are. We can throw in the bet and fold to a raise. If he flat calls us we can slow down.

[TIGERsrm]

Meh I prob call. A 24/5 is not raising 55 UTG and prob not even 88, your getting great odds on your money as hes virtually allin. There's a good chance he would 4-bet AA, KK pf so his range is probably weighted more towards TT-JJ and draws.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I agree, even if I include JJ and AcKc in his range I'm 30% against it and I don't have the odds to call. i folded this pretty quickly. But now the question is would you still bet this flop knowing that his range is very tight and he's probably folding pretty much everything that I beat, and that I'll have to fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually do think a check behind here would be good against an opponent with stats that extreme. When he raises UTG and then just calls your re-reraise, you should be watching out for a trap. When he checks, disable his trap by checking behind. If he does have a monster, I don't see him checking again. His betting on the turn will let you know what he has

[TheDoubleA]

How many hands are those stats based on? Would hate to make a decision looking at the stats if the sample size is really low. What hands have you seen him raise with? Have you seen him show down any hands that have been raised?

I agree, just by looking at the stats and his line it looks like a fold, but dont you feel like he would have pushed preflop with AA or KK, and not raised 55 and 88?

[Movelong]

Check behind the flop would save alot of money to see the turn. If one more club coming out, see wat he would act.If he make a weak bet or still slow playing,Now u have the chance to drive him out or folding the hand.Otherwise, ur playing perfect to cut off his chasing flush with $5 bet on flop. I usually fold the hands like this on the first time face up with this kind of player, will take advantaged on him on next hands.

[KEW]

A 25/5 villain is not a positionally aware player..As such I can not limit his hands to that tight a range..This type villain often overvalues a Ax hand that he open raised with..I give villain even less credit since he is not playing with a full stack..Also we do not know how many hands those stats are over...We also need a better read on how villain plays in a re-raised(3 bet) pot..Add up my uncertainity and I make the CALL..I do not really like the call but without a better read I do not think I can fold an over pair to this villain..