AA on river

[BishopsFinger]

villain is 18/8/2.5 over a reasonable sample
won at showdown is 53%
i have not seen villain getting out of line post flop and has been playing reasonably
hero's is about 24/19 at this table and v positional


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $226.80
BB: $34.95
Hero (UTG): $102.85
MP: $50.00
CO: $49.25
BTN: $60.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, MP folds, BTN calls $2.00, 3 folds

villain does not seem to be positionally aware so his calling range here is maybe jj down, aq-a10, less often AK, face cards (most likely sooted) and the occassional random crap/low sc or w/e. (i have seen him 3 bet once before at this table)

Flop: ($4.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.25</font>, BTN calls $3.25

pretty dry flop and standard cbet on a flop of this co-ordination is made.

villain snapcalls - trademark read of this is a drawing hand but i have never seen villain do this before so cant put too much faith in this.
also flop is pretty dry and the only real drawing hand out there is qj so this read only fits with a very small part of his range
i think villains range is narrowing to sets, pps jj,77,88, hands like a10/j10s and the occasional random piece of [censored] overcards/under pp to the board - however his fold to cbet is over 70% so i dont figure him to be floating often here.

Turn: ($11.25) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00

turn bricks, i bet out again and get another snapcall, i think this makes the pps that havent connected, random crap, hands like j10s a smaller part of his range, a10/k10 may still come along and the snapcall also fits with qj - jj is still there but i think sets are a larger part of his range now, having never seen him get out of line post flop i would not be suprised to see him slowplay a flopped straight/set on this flop but would he have raised this on the turn or continued to slowplay on the bricked turn?

River: ($25.25) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)

the board pairs on the river taking all top pair hands ahead of me but to be honest i think the only ones of these that this villain would have continued to an UTG raise and 3/4 pot bet on flop and turn is a10/rarely k10. the threat of a set/87 still looms large and sometimes jj+ shows up here. jq has now missed if he was drawing and i would be suprised to see him bluff if checked to as he seems quite straightforward.

so heres the question - against this semi-nitty straightforward post flop player who called 2 pretty large bets on a dry flop and turn i should......

my thoughts on each line:

b/f - if i bet out a 2/3psb i fold out qj stopping it bluffing at us, maybe extract value from jj but maybe not now the 10 paired - i get value from a v strangely played qq/kk but this is v v rare and i get raised by all the hands that beat me. so basically i only get value from jj/rare random overpair and otherwise i fold out all the hands i beat and only get action from better hands.

c/c - if i check then all the sets, straights and tp (now trips) hands will value bet, jj will probably not turn itself into a bluff but qj/random crap may fire the busted draw/bluff the paired board - essentially i have a bluffcatcher.

c/f - as i am well behind his betting range i could just c/f but that seems so weak!

bet size will obv be influential on the (c/c)vs(c/f) decision also.

so what do i do?
b/f gets action from hands that beat us
c/c only catches the bluffed qj/random crap
c/f is just weak

crap crap crap

also hows my thinking here? anything obviously flawed? i feel i still have big leaks and may be missing/overlooking large issues.

[checktheriver]

b/f seems really terrible here imo, I'd either c/f or c/c depending on reads, probably c/f if villain is straightforward, he'd have to bluff a lot to make a call on the river profitable I think given that he checks behind with JJ+.

[Lego05]

IMO bet/fold (with a smallish bet) could also get value from 9X/88/77 as well as JJ although it's no slam dunk.


I think I would bet/fold.

[whyzze]

imo, there isn't much value in betting since worse hands calling and better hands folding is highly unlikely. If we are willing to put anymore money in I would rather it be as a bluff catcher.

Not sure if I would call a psb though.

[BishopsFinger]

this is a very close spot so......


bump

[geekylucas]

I don't think I'm leading out on the river.

Your stats show that villain is reasonably aggressive post-flop, the fact that she's played the hand so passively makes me think she's trapping. I think she's raising our flop bet with JJ? Otherwise, she's got top pair which turned into trips on the river.

I think I'm checking and probably folding to a large bet.

[BishopsFinger]

so what c/c 1/2psb c/f to anyying larger?

[danny8]

grunch:

i think his range includes ATs/KTs, JQ, 78, TJ, maybe a set, but i really hink he raises somewhere before the river.

I think hes tight enough that he prolly doesnt call with JT/KT/AT offsuit, which means hes far less likely to have a T. (obv this could be wrong though)

i think his range is heavily weighted towards: ATs,KTs,QJs,JTs,87s,QJo which you're a 65/35 favourite over.

if you add in other stuff like sets 2pair (which i think he'd raise flop or turn with so i'd discount them slightly) then you're pretty much 50/50

if you check he'll bet everything that beats you but i htink he'd bet QJ too.

if you bet he'll raise/call with everyting that beats you, prolly fold QJ, might shove but i think thats unlikely. i cant think of a hand you beat that calls though... maybe JJ, but I htink he'd find a fold with that aswell. i really dont see any value in betting.

its either c/f or c/c for me. i dont know which one is best. you only really beat QJ if you c/c but i think its a very reasonable holding. the fact he snap called is usually a sign of a weak made hand, maybe a draw. you've been playing fairly lagro so i can easily see him making a stand with JT/KT/AT or sticking around with QJ.

i think i actually prefer a c/f over a c/c, but i dunno... im sure i could be persuaded 1 way or the other /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[BishopsFinger]

i have to say a check is optimal - he bet 18 into me...

what do you do?

[danny8]

[ QUOTE ]
i have to say a check is optimal - he bet 18 into me...

what do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i go ahead and throw it away /images/graemlins/frown.gif i'd expect the river to check/check and your hand be good most of the time.

A range of TT-99,66,ATs,KTs,QJs,JTs,87s,QJo makes you exactly 50/50, with all the money in the pot you should call...

however all those beat you except QJ, if he only plays QJs then you're an 80/20 dog. basically it comes down to how often he has JQ here, since thats the only legitimate hand i can put him on that bets the river that you beat. Obviously he could be doing someting weird with somethign else but i dont think its v.likely

so.. i think a fold is best.

[danny8]

heh just realised my reply sounds a bit odd. basically im saying if that range is correct you should call... but im not sure it is. im not sure if he has QJ/other random bluffs enough of the time. if you think he does then call, if not fold. i think its pretty close but im leaning more towards fold

[ssdex]

I am c/c any bet that isn't potsized here, it seems like a value bet, but if i was him and bluffing, i would be bluffing an amount that seems like he has a strong hand. Also, he is probably assuming 77 and 88 have no showdown value so outside of QJ I think he is also betting 77 88 and JJ here. You probably are behind---- but id call and make notes this time, you really only need to be right 1/2.5 to make the call---------- b/f is really bad I think, I like c/c here, and Im only c/f to a big river bet, probably 22 or greater--- and even then I call vs some villains.

[ICMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
He is probably assuming 77 and 88 have no showdown value...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero could easily have AK, draw, etc.

If I'm villian and have 88 I don't expect to fold better/get called by worse and would check behind.

Looks more like a nuts or nothing kind of bet.

I wouldn't be surprised if he raised TP, 2p, set, etc on turn.

I think I would lean towards calling.

[BishopsFinger]

i folded to the 18$ bet and he showed QJs fwiw then felt like a fool for folding.