Antigua Up Ante - 7 BILLION

[oldbookguy]

Ok, I know there must be thread for this and feel free to move it.

Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.

Story at antigua sun.

http://www.antiguasun.com/paper/?as=view...07&ac=Local (http://www.antiguasun.com/paper/?as=view&sun=122050078708272007&an=143342108708262 007&ac=Local)

obg

[Legislurker]

You must type faster than I do.

The ante is going up. Im not sure how they could receive $7bn
in trade concessions for a country that small, but its a good starting point. I wish countries would ask higher, given that the US sports betting market alone is over $300bn, I think the EU should at least ask for $100bn(hint, hint EU negotiators). The witdrawl aspect is not just for "remote" gaming, but cross border gaming services. I think every country can argue a striaght line mathematical approach to the expansion of legal gaming in the US and how being excluded in the future to more and more liberalized markets is extensive harm. Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that. Maybe Jay knows why the EU is asking for such a low number? If market share means anything, the EU has a massive market share in worldwide gaming, and their claim should be tenfold Antigua's minimum.

[Richas]

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI the UK has just granted the concession for the next ten years (starting in 2) to the incumbent firm Camelot. Part of their bid was a global lottery. There i already a European wide one. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI the UK has just granted the concession for the next ten years (starting in 2) to the incumbent firm Camelot. Part of their bid was a global lottery. There i already a European wide one. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really really hoping the EU would ask a sky high amount. $100bn sounded nice. Its not liek this wont go to arbitration, and you should always start hihg. I can only hope India, Aus, Canada, Macau, and Japan don't puss out and barely ask for anything. I hope CARICOM demands sugar and textiles concessions. They already have contentious garment
allowances. The sugar would hit Hawaii and Louisiana. The textiles VA, NC, and SC. Those are anti-gaming states all. Its high time to take some shots across the bow at some of their strongholds.

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[tangled]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[/ QUOTE ]

3.4bn is for damages SINCE 03. And the 7bn is as Mendel explained, or Jay one, is calculated on the size of the market the US is closing factoring in Antigua's market share. GDP size is irrelevant really

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[/ QUOTE ]

3.4bn is for damages SINCE 03. And the 7bn is as Mendel explained, or Jay one, is calculated on the size of the market the US is closing factoring in Antigua's market share. GDP size is irrelevant really

[/ QUOTE ]

If Antigua GDP was $1 billion/year and gambling income was 10% of GDP and 70% of that was US, that's 70 million lost a year. How did damages get to be 100 times loss; 7000 million per year from here on out?

[Jay Cohen]

GDP schmee DP. Everyone makes the mistake of taking such numbers as gospel. Who puts them out? Where do they come from?

There are reasons that number is not very accurate or representative.

The Sun article wasn't totally correct. Antigua's claim is for $3.4 billion per year, not total. The figure represents lost revenue as a result of US harrassment which has been significant. The online gaming industry in Antigua has been operating under attack for years. It's not about what the industry made over the period, it's about what it could have made if it had the unfettered access to the US market that the US committed to in the GATS.

As to the second part, the amount the withdrawal of the commitment is worth, do the math. If Antigua's economists are correct, then what is the value of letting the US out of that obligation for a lifetime, or just 20 years?

Antigua did not pull these numbers out of the sky. These are numbers that nationally recognized economists have come up with. Their analysis will be presented to the WTO panel, and I am sure the US will counter. The panel will decide the final figure and method of remedy. If the US wants to hang it's hat on the GDP, that's their perogative. But Antigua will demonstrate why that number is irrelevant in this matter.

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
GDP schmee DP. Everyone makes the mistake of taking such numbers as gospel. Who puts them out? Where do they come from?

There are reasons that number is not very accurate or representative.

The Sun article wasn't totally correct. Antigua's claim is for $3.4 billion per year, not total. The figure represents lost revenue as a result of US harrassment which has been significant. The online gaming industry in Antigua has been operating under attack for years. It's not about what the industry made over the period, it's about what it could have made if it had the unfettered access to the US market that the US committed to in the GATS.

As to the second part, the amount the withdrawal of the commitment is worth, do the math. If Antigua's economists are correct, then what is the value of letting the US out of that obligation for a lifetime, or just 20 years?

Antigua did not pull these numbers out of the sky. These are numbers that nationally recognized economists have come up with. Their analysis will be presented to the WTO panel, and I am sure the US will counter. The panel will decide the final figure and method of remedy. If the US wants to hang it's hat on the GDP, that's their perogative. But Antigua will demonstrate why that number is irrelevant in this matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your reply. Is Antigua claiming $7 billion/year forever or not?

[JPFisher55]

I think that the manner of remedy is more important than the number. Even if the number granted is one-third of what Antiqua requests, how else can they get it except by breach of IP.
Once Antiqua can permit "pirated" software, music and movies, then how do they control the amount? If the WTO grants Antiqua the right to ignore US IP laws, I believe that US will back track on this whole mess. The music and movie industry give the Dems so much money that they will quickly pass exemption for online gambling from Wire Act etc. A Bush veto of that bill in that situation could lead to impeachment. It won't happen.
But I worry that the WTO will decide not to grant Antiqua the remedy of ignoring US IP laws.

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that the manner of remedy is more important than the number. Even if the number granted is one-third of what Antiqua requests, how else can they get it except by breach of IP.
Once Antiqua can permit "pirated" software, music and movies, then how do they control the amount? If the WTO grants Antiqua the right to ignore US IP laws, I believe that US will back track on this whole mess. The music and movie industry give the Dems so much money that they will quickly pass exemption for online gambling from Wire Act etc. A Bush veto of that bill in that situation could lead to impeachment. It won't happen.
But I worry that the WTO will decide not to grant Antiqua the remedy of ignoring US IP laws.

[/ QUOTE ]

One little remedy I like IF they are serious about making hurt to only get gaming would go like this. They also applied ot violate industry plans as well. Take one plan, schematic, drug formula, or just ONE DVD, CD etc. Then sell it for $1. Sell it to someone you know will abuse it to the extreme. Belarus, North Korea, China, Moldova. Somewhere of that ilk. Whatever they can get their hands on, barring say WMD recipes. Publish the list of what will be given away. Ipod or Iphone plans. Im sure China will buy any industrial plan they can get their hands on. Im sure the EU patent office has tons of cross-filed stuff from US patent seekers they could be "persuaded" to give up if they were on board.

[dxu05]

As much as this debate is useful; the WTO isn't going to force any action or succeed in levying a massive punishment on the US in the name of Antigua. WTO is for mediating only; post disagreement to mediation and negotiation, the only real power that exists is economic sanctions and threat/real physical force. Since neither me nor my infinitely correct magic eight ball see effective sanctions or warfare against the US, I don't think anything will happen.

BTW, along the same line of reasoning I don't think any other countries really want to sour the US with crazy claims about protectionist laws, the US isn't the only country with dirt on its hands.

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
As much as this debate is useful; the WTO isn't going to force any action or succeed in levying a massive punishment on the US in the name of Antigua. WTO is for mediating only; post disagreement to mediation and negotiation, the only real power that exists is economic sanctions and threat/real physical force. Since neither me nor my infinitely correct magic eight ball see effective sanctions or warfare against the US, I don't think anything will happen.

BTW, along the same line of reasoning I don't think any other countries really want to sour the US with crazy claims about protectionist laws, the US isn't the only country with dirt on its hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO, opinions are wonderful things, and we all have them, but when all else fails look at the data. The WTO has shown little to no squeemishness so far in dealing with the U.S. about this, so I personally see little reason for them to start now. It fully appears that Antigua will get something, as will the other nations. The U.S. is ALREADY negotiating with the E.U., so I don't understand how you can state that the WTO won't do anything as fact.

And, sorry, but I couldn't disagree more with, "I don't think any other countries really want to sour the US with crazy claims about protectionist laws". The EU and Japan will jump at the chance to show hypocrisy in the U.S. positions on trade. Again, the data here is ample.

I agree that the WTO cannot force the U.S. to accept Internet gaming, of course, but they certainly have the ability to enforce trade concessions. This is why we all need to do our part to tell Congress that we actually want Internet gaming.

[oldbookguy]

Yes, the U.S. and Congress DO take the WTO seriously.

Example: Following a ruling by the WTO about import tax subsidies that went against the US comngress acted and complied.

More importantly, not only was the sector made more open, to 'herlp' American companies, 210 BILLION in tax cuts were passed.

From the Citizens For Tax Justice
http://www.ctj.org/pdf/corp1004.pdf

[ QUOTE ]
# In the has-to-do category is repeal of a foolish export tax subsidy that the World
Trade Organization has ruled to be in violation of U.S. trade agreements. “It seems odd
to call complying with the law of our land a $49 billion revenue offset,” said McIntyre.
Ending the illegal export tax subsidy will eliminate penalty duties on U.S. exports

[/ QUOTE ]

So, the Antigua claim in 3.4 billion plus the EU 15 billion + the Antigua add on of 3.7 Billion.

That alone is 22 billion.
Now, there ALSO has to be tax cuts for U S Companies to keep them competitive, that will require at the least and equal cut.

True cost will soar.

The previous WTO ruling, from what I gather was around 49 billion. Tax cuts of 210 Billion. Total cost = 259 billion.

So, this little 22 billion and growing claim COULD reach easily 100 BILLION after TOTAL cost is calculated.

This, we need to communicate, is NOT acceptable.

obg

[oldbookguy]

This article in USA Today on Aug. 31 should give us ammo in the Antigua / WTO fight.

It highlights the U. S. use of the WTO and shows WHY the U. S. SHOULD be honoring the decision and the hypocrisy of our governments stance and we SHOULD incorporate this into communications / letters in the future.

STORY: http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2007-08-31-wto-china_N.htm?csp=34

We need to get busy here in the comments section as well telling how the U. S. is selective in these areas.

MY COMMENT:

Absurd. Not the WTO case, but that OUR government has the gumption to even file a WTO case in light of the recent one we lost recently with tiny Antigua – Barbuda over playing Poker on the Internet.

OUR response to that, we will withdraw from THAT portion, sorry guys, we have no intention of honoring the ruling.

And we EXPECT the WTO and the rest of the world to take us serious and grant sanctions against others? WHY would other countries care, they can always do as we are, WITHDRAW from that section of the agreement.

obg

[TheEngineer]

Done.

There's also an article in today's Post on the NFL, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/01/AR2007090101156.html?hpid=topnews . Seems like a good place to post a comment.

[oldbookguy]

All done.


obg

[oldbookguy]

Another good place to post:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/achenblog/2007/09/bet_on_america.html

Betting on america.....

obg